The purpose of this article is to analyse the bookies odds for Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 1 in order to give an unbiased opinion. We're going to take a look at each team's implied chance to keep a clean sheet and to score in their opening matches.
To accompany the odds, jamieFPL has provided his insight on predicted lineups for Gameweek 1 as well as an array of player tips for both Fantasy Premier League and Daily Fantasy Football.
Clean Sheet Odds
| Team |
Clean Sheet Odds |
Implied Chance |
| Man City |
1.80 |
55.56% |
| Crystal Palace |
2.15 |
46.51% |
| Leicester |
2.30 |
43.48% |
| Southampton |
2.30 |
43.48% |
| Chelsea |
2.37 |
42.19% |
| Man United |
2.37 |
42.19% |
| Middlesbrough |
2.50 |
40.00% |
| Burnley |
2.75 |
36.36% |
| Tottenham |
3.00 |
33.33% |
| Swansea |
3.10 |
32.26% |
| Stoke |
3.25 |
30.77% |
| Arsenal |
3.25 |
30.77% |
| West Brom |
3.50 |
28.57% |
| Everton |
3.50 |
28.57% |
| Hull |
4.00 |
25.00% |
| Liverpool |
4.00 |
25.00% |
| Bournemouth |
4.33 |
23.09% |
| Watford |
4.50 |
22.22% |
| West Ham |
5.50 |
18.18% |
| Sunderland |
10.00 |
10.00% |
Manchester City are the runaway favourites to keep a clean sheet as they host Sunderland at the Etihad. David Moyes has failed to strengthen the attack that was left to him from Big Sam which has resulted in them having the lowest implied chance to find the net this weekend.
John Stones is set to partner up alongside Nicolás Otamendi, with Gael Clichy & Pablo Zabaleta occupying the full-back positions with Joe Hart in goal. Vincent Kompany has been ruled out injured whilst Bacary Sagna is doubtful due to being granted an extended rest following his Euro 2016 campaign with finalists France.
Crystal Palace are the bookies second favourite as they host West Brom in what looks set to be a narrow home win. The Baggies struggled in front of goal last season and were more known for their tight defensive displays.
Whether Steve Mandanda will be given his debut or Wayne Hennessey will remain between the sticks is still unknown. The back four is likely to remain unchanged from last season with Damien Delaney partnering Scott Dann, and Joel Ward & Pape Souare on the flanks.
Leicester and Southampton tie for third place as the bookies estimate that both have a 43.48% chance of a shutout in Gameweek 1. The title holders travel to the rebranded KCOM Stadium to take on newly promoted Hull City who are currently undergoing a time of unrest.
Kasper Schmeichel looks set to start between the sticks for Leicester after fending off several transfer rumours during the summer. Christian Fuchs, Danny Simpson & Wes Morgan remain at the heart of the league winning defence with summer signing Luis Hernandez covering for suspended Robert Huth.
Southampton rank highly in the table considering the uncertainties surrounding their Gameweek 1 defensive lineup. The Saints host Watford at Saint Mary's but could be without Cedric Soares and Jose Fonte (resting after Euro 2016), as well as Ryan Bertrand & Virgil Van Dijk through injury - though the latter is expected to start.
Fraser Forster will start in goal after proving a safe pair of hands last season. Matt Targett or Jérémy Pied will cover for Bertrand at left-back, Cedric or Martina will start on the right and Van Dijk will be accompanied by either Jose Fonte or Maya Yoshida in the middle.
Chelsea & Man United have both been given a 42.19% chance of shutting out their opposition. Chelsea have managed a clean sheet in four of their last six matches against London rivals West Ham, whilst Man United face Bournemouth who they failed to contain last season on both occasions.
Chelsea are expected to field the same defence as last year with Courtois in goal and Azpilicueta, Ivanovic, Terry & Cahill at the back. United are expected to line up with De Gea in goal and Shaw, Valencia, Bailley & Blind making up the back four.
Elsewhere, newly promoted Middlesbrough and Burnley rank in the top half of the bookies prediction table with 40.00% and 36.36% chance of a clean sheet respectively.
Boro will be confident of frustrating an injury plagued Stoke in their opening fixture. They gained promotion thanks to their stubborn defence and will look to take advantage of Jack Butland's absence.
Odds To Score
| Team |
To Score Odds |
Implied Chance |
| Man City |
1.04 |
96.15% |
| Chelsea |
1.12 |
89.29% |
| Southampton |
1.17 |
85.47% |
| Man United |
1.20 |
83.33% |
| Leicester |
1.22 |
81.97% |
| Arsenal |
1.22 |
81.97% |
| Tottenham |
1.28 |
78.13% |
| Crystal Palace |
1.28 |
78.13% |
| Middlesbrough |
1.33 |
75.19% |
| Liverpool |
1.33 |
75.19% |
| Burnley |
1.35 |
74.07% |
| Everton |
1.36 |
73.53% |
| Swansea |
1.40 |
71.43% |
| Stoke |
1.50 |
66.67% |
| Bournemouth |
1.53 |
65.36% |
| West Ham |
1.53 |
65.36% |
| Hull |
1.57 |
63.69% |
| Watford |
1.57 |
63.69% |
| West Brom |
1.65 |
60.61% |
| Sunderland |
1.95 |
51.28% |
Man City have seen over 2.5 goals in their last eight home matches against Sunderland in all competitions, so it comes as no surprise to see them top the table. The bookies imply that they have a 96.15% chance to find the net in Gameweek 1, so some coverage seems logical.
Sergio Aguero is the go-to pick when looking for a City player and it's obvious why. He's averaged 25 goals a season over the last two years and many expect him to continue his goalscoring form again this year.
It's likely that David Silva, Raheem Sterling and Nolito will support Aguero as an attacking midfield trio. All three are capable of providing some returns and taking a punt on one of them wouldn't be a bad idea in a daily fantasy football contest.
Chelsea and Southampton follow narrowly behind as they take on West Ham and Watford respectively. Diego Costa looks like a good differential choice for Gameweek 1, he has low ownership (5.6%) on FPL but showed in their title winning season that he's capable of consistently finding the net, tallying up 20 that campaign.
Eden Hazard will be a popular choice from the midfield after springing back into life at the end of last season and carrying his form through into the Euros. Oscar and Willian provide a budget-friendly alternative for Chelsea midfield coverage.
Nathan Redmond is expected to lead the line alongside Shane Long in Gameweek 1 and could be a shrewd pick as he's listed as a midfielder. Both have impressed during pre-season and can be acquired for a very low price tag. Saints manager Claude Puel even compared Nathan Redmond to Thierry Henry recently!
Man United, Leicester and Arsenal make up the rest of the 80%+ bracket. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is the obvious pick for United but comes at a hefty price. Anthony Martial has slipped under the radar following the arrival of Zlatan and Mkhitaryan, listed as a midfielder and proven in the Premier League, he looks a solid choice as United visit Bournemouth.
Jamie Vardy looks poised to destroy Hull's injury ridden defence in Gameweek 1. Jake Livermore could start at centre-back alongside Curtis Davies - as was the case in the 2-1 pre-season defeat to Torino - which would allow Vardy to utilise his pace and clinical finishing. He's going to be presented with chances and if there's one player who takes them, it's Vardy.
It's still not clear whether Alexis Sanchez or Theo Walcott will start up front for Arsenal in Gameweek 1, but whichever one does provides a great out of position (OOP) option. In the absence of Ozil, Aaron Ramsey will be filling in just behind the striker. After a string of excellent performances at Euro 2016, Ramsey will no doubt be keen to carry his form over to the Premier League.
In contrast, Liverpool have been handed a 75.19% implied chance of finding the net versus The Gunners. With regular centre-backs Laurent Koscielny, Per Mertesacker and Gabriel ruled out, Arsenal will turn to youth in the form of Callum Chambers and new signing Rob Holding to plug the gaps.
With this in mind, it could be a smart decision to back the likes of Roberto Firmino, who scored three times during pre-season and might occupy the striker role, the in-form Saido Mane who netted twice against Barcelona last week and the ever-dangerous Philippe Coutinho.
