Fantasy Premier League Differential Tips For Gameweek 28
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Welcome back to another article highlighting Fantasy Premier League Differential Tips for Gameweek 28. Callum Read highlights some low ownership (<5%) strikers who all impressed during Gameweek 27.Danny Welbeck (£7.3m), Marcus Rashford (£4.5m) and Connor Wickham (£5.5) all got their names on the score sheet over the weekend, but which of the trio provide the best option moving forwards. This article will hopefully give you a more rounded look at the Englishmen and help you decide if any are worth your time.
Threat Posed In Front of Goal During Gameweek 27:
The table below displays the shots, and shots on target from each player during Gameweek 27, it enables us to view how well each player has been performing in front of goal and if their shots have provided any danger.
Player
Shots
Shots on Target
Big Chances
Touches in Pen Area
Rashford
2
2
2
4
Welbeck
3
2
2
7
Wickham
4
2
1
7
It's clear to see that Marcus Rashford is a clinical striker, He had just two big chances in the 3-2 win over Arsenal and scored from both of them, one thing his statistics and goals tell us is that he has a natural instinct of being in the right place at the right time. His first goal saw the youngster react quickly to a loose ball before a cool right footed finish past Petr Cech, whilst his second demonstrated some clever movement to lose his marker before he produced a cushioned header to grab his second of the game. Despite only having four touches in the penalty area, Rashford scored twice and assisted once, a real sign of his importance in the game.Danny Welbeck also grabbed an assist but scored only a single goal. A statistic that stands out in comparison to Rashford is touches in the penalty area, of which he had seven to Rashford's four. However, this may well be because Arsenal transition quicker into the final third than Manchester United.The Arsenal striker also had three shots and two big chances in the defeat, and although his goals to big chances ratio makes for good reading, if Welbeck is to provide a long term investment his shots conversion rate needs to be higher than 0.33.Finally, Connor Wickham had the most shots out of the trio and despite scoring twice, was only presented with a single big chance. The Crystal Palace striker's second goal in the defeat to West Brom, was a spectacular effort - demonstrating a clinical side of his game which he has often failed to showcase in the past.Out of the three players, Wickham had the highest number of shots in Gameweek 27, perhaps a sign that he is trying to prove his first team value to Pardew after falling out of choice at Palace due to poor form and injuries.
How Creative Are Their Teams?
The table below displays the creativity of Arsenal, Manchester United and Crystal Palace. This enables us to see if the players respective sides are using the ball well in the final third, and creating chances for their attacking players; statistics which are vital when comparing the three players. Data is taken from the last four Premier League games.
Team
Goals
Chances Created
Big Chances
Successful Final Third Passes
Man Utd
8
40
6
421
Arsenal
6
54
12
519
Palace
6
37
5
238
Manchester United have scored the most goals out of the three sides but still show a significant lack of creativity in the final third. Despite scoring eight goals, Louis van Gaal's side have only created 40 chances, and six big chances. It's fair to admit that four games is a large data pool, as United have scored eight goals in their last two competitive games and looked a much more dangerous attacking unit. Despite a large number of successful final third passes they haven't been all that creative, but this could perhaps change in the coming weeks.Arsenal are proving the most creative side of the three, their chances created and big chances created vastly exceeds Manchester United and Crystal Palace. Despite making 98 more successful final third passes than United, Arsenal's chance conversion remains unconvincing having only scored six in their previous four games. One thing Arsenal have that neither Manchester United or Crystal Palace have is Mesut Ozil, the German has 18 assists this season and is arguably the league's most creative player who lays on countless chances to his teammates, including Welbeck.Finally, Crystal Palace have created the least amount of chances and also completed the lowest amount of successful final third passes, by a long way. Their 238 final third passes initially suggests a more direct style of play, but it's actually due to their focus on attacking down the wing. Palace have attempted the most crosses in the league this season (135), which of course reduces Wickham's involvement in build up play, however it does mean he'll see a large amount of aerial chances fall his way.
Who Faces The Worst Defence in Gameweek 28?
The table below displays the top seven teams based on opposition defensive form. It highlights the opposing team's average number of goals conceded (GC) and big chances conceded (BCC) per game. The data taken from last four Premier League matches.
Team
Vs.
Goals Conceded
Big Chances Conceded
Arsenal
Swansea (H)
5
11
Crystal Palace
Sunderland (A)
5
5
Manchester United
Watford (H)
2
5
The table shows that Arsenal and Danny Welbeck have the most favourable fixture in Gameweek 28, when they face Swansea City at The Emirates Stadium. The Swans have conceded five goals in their last four games but the figure that really catches our eye is 11 big chances conceded - this is second most in the Premier League behind Stoke (12). Swansea haven't travelled well this season (W2, D4, L7) conceding 18 goals in the process, Arsenal will be looking to bounce back from their defeat to Manchester United and a fixture against a side that concede a lot of chances is certainly favourable.Manchester United face an in-form Watford defence that have only conceded two goals and five big chances in their last four games, this includes games against Tottenham and Chelsea proving they are no pushovers. It will be a tough task for Marcus Rashford and Manchester United to break down their stubborn backline. The creativity of Memphis Depay and Juan Mata will be put to the test and Rashford's presence in front of goal and efficiency will be needed once again.We've seen this season that Sunderland have had real problems keeping the goals out, but they are a lot harder to penetrate at the Stadium of Light. Considering in Sunderland's last four games they have faced Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United and West Ham, the Black Cats should take solace in the fact these numbers are so low. With Sunderland's defensive form improving, Wickham will need to be on top of his game to find the back of the net against his former club.
Player Odds To Score In Gameweek 28:
The table below displays the top three players per position, based on the bookies odds to score anytime in Gameweek 28. The odds have been converted to an implied chance percentage.
Player
Implied Chance
Welbeck
47.62%
Rashford
38.17%
Wickham
28.57%
The bookies odds further reinforce our findings that Danny Welbeck is the strongest option for Gameweek 28, followed by Martin Rashford and finally Connor Wickham.The Verdict:We believe that Danny Welbeck is your best option out of the three players with Arsenal looking to bounce back from their defeat and face a Swansea side who he has scored three goals in four appearances against, The forward has scored in his last two Premier League games against Leicester and Manchester United and will be looking to make it three from three in front of the Arsenal faithful. He is our tip moving forwards.If you're tight on funds and want to free up some pennies, then Marcus Rashford has to be top of your list, and at just £4.5m, the Manchester United man is a steal. The 18 year old has scored four goals in his last two competitive games and has confidence flowing through his veins. Manchester United are looking a lot more fluid in the final third and with fixtures against Watford and West Brom in the next two weeks, Rashford could be a strong third striker moving forwards.Connor Wickham certainly comes with a ‘high risk, high reward' tag and according to our data has the highest chance of blanking during Gameweek 28. If you're a risk taker then Wickham is your man, otherwise move along.
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