Dec 14

Fantasy Premier League Wildcard Survey: Results, Trends & Templates

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A couple of days ago we organised a Wildcard Survey and invited FPL managers who had activated their wildcard ahead of Gameweek 4 to share with us their 15 man squads. Thanks to everybody who retweeted us and the /r/FantasyPL community, we managed to gather 500 results within 24 hours. The sample range of 500 individual wildcard teams enables us to visualise which players have the highest ownership within each position and price range. Using this data we can monitor trends and create a variety of template teams based around different strategies. All of the data from this article is available for you to access within our Google Drive. Ownership percentages play a large part within fantasy football as they allow you to see who the trend players are, and which quality has slipped under the radar. This article will begin by analysing ownership trends for each position, whilst also picking out key talking points regarding individual players and fantasy strategy. It'll then conclude by analysing a few potential teams built around ownership percentages and formations. The following tables have be highlighted according to this key in order to help display which players have the highest ownership: WC Survey - Key

Goalkeeper Ownership Trends:

GK - Ownership (filtered by budget) Jordan Pickford (SUN) and Eldin Jakupovic are the clear standout goalkeepers within the budget category (£4.0m - £4.3m). Four other keepers do make the list but none of which have received more than a couple of votes. Ben Foster (WBA) is the template goalkeeper pick with 300 of the 500 managers who completed our survey opting for the Baggies number one. So far this season he's picked up two clean sheets in three matches and averaged at 6.0 PPG. Tom Heaton (BUR) is owned by just less than one in five managers making him the second most popular mid-priced (£4.4m - £5.1m) option behind Foster. Elsewhere, Steve Mandanda (CRY), Artur Boruc (BOU) and Adrian (WHU) gathered a handful of votes but not enough to take them out of very low ownership. David de Gea (MUN) and Petr Cech (ARS) are the two favourites from the premium (£5.2m - £5.5m). However, neither of them are particularly popular and their selection percentage isn't high enough to alleviate them from the ‘average' ownership bracket.

Observations From The Table

A quick glance at the table is enough to show that FPL managers are only considering a couple of goalkeepers from each category with their wildcard.

37.4% ownership for a keeper that is no longer nailed on?!

The signing of goalkeeper David Marshall has raised question marks over Eldin Jakupovic's place in Hull's starting XI. Marshall earned a number of plaudits following his impressive performances for Cardiff during their season in the Premier League. He was also named in the Sky Sports Premier League team of the year by Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher and was awarded the club's Player of the Year award. He may not replace Jakupovic between this sticks in Gameweek 4, but many believe he'll nail down a starting spot before the end of the month. No playing time paired with high ownership could mean several transfers out, leading to a price drop. Although he's an appealing option with a price tag of £4.1m, you may have to waste a transfer shipping him out sooner than expected.

Premium keepers now out of favour?

At the end of last season four of the six highest scoring goalkeepers were from the premium category (£5.2m - £5.5m). These were Petr Cech (1st: 159), David de Gea (4th: 142), Hugo Lloris (5th: 140) and Joe Hart (6th: 134). According to our table, premium keepers are now out of favour to those managers playing their wildcard, which is surprising considering they can be paired with a starting 4.0m keeper in Jordan Pickford. The set-and-forget goalkeeper tactic has always been a popular option and it also comes without the frustration of choosing the wrong goalkeeper as part of a rotation strategy. Thibaut Courtois (CHE) has surprisingly low ownership considering Chelsea (and Conte's) defensive history. David de Gea (MUN) and Petr Cech (ARS) are also good routes into strong, reliable defences.

Defender Ownership Trends:

DF - Ownership (filtered by budget) Jordi Amat (SWA) is the template pick when it comes to a budget defender (£4.0m - £4.7m) having featured in every minute of the season so far. Gareth McAuley (WBA) follows with very high ownership, but has already seen his price rise by £0.2 following his goal against Everton. Teammate, Jonny Evans (WBA) provides a slightly cheaper way into the sought after Baggies back line. Elsewhere in the budget defenders table, Stephen Kingsley (SWA) & Donald Love (SUN) have an average number of managers opting for their services largely due to their small price tags. Meanwhile, there's not much to separate the likes of Mason Holgate (EVE), James Collins (WHM) and George Friend (MID) in the £4.5m/£4.6m price bracket. There's not a lot of love for the mid-priced (£4.8m - £5.2m) defenders with only Ashley Williams (EVE), John Stones (MCI) and Wes Morgan (LEI) securing average ownership levels. Patrick Van Aanholt (SUN) creeps in a low ownership choice, with the likes of Robert Huth (LEI) & Winston Reid (WHU) just make the list with a couple of managers including them. Antonio Valencia (MUN) is the premium defender (£5.3m - £6.5m) template pick following his back-to-back clean sheets and three bonus points last gameweek. Teammate Luke Shaw (MUN) and Leighton Baines (EVE) are other popular choices in this category, many believe the latter has returned to penalty duties for his club following his penalty-miss-assist against Stoke.

Observations From The Table

The table suggests that attention has shifted away from the mid-priced defenders with managers focusing on squeezing in one or two premium defenders alongside a crop of budget options.

Is the budget all that matters?

When looking at the table of the most popular budget defenders it's interesting to see several players included who either have tough upcoming fixtures or aren't nailed on starters. Stephen Kingsley (18.4%) and Mason Holgate (18.0%) are likely to lose their places as soon as this weekend to the returning Neil Taylor and Seamus Coleman. In addition to this, Donald Love (12.0%) found himself on the bench in Gameweek 3 despite starting in their opening two. Although the main strategy behind owning a £4.0m/£4.1m defender is to have them as bench fodder, it's still sometimes surprising to see players included who have tough fixtures on the horizon. Swansea for example - Amat (62.4%) and Kingsley (18.4%) - have an upcoming run of Chelsea (H), Southampton (A), Man City (H), Liverpool (H) and Arsenal (A). This fixture list screams out no clean sheets, cards and possible rotation, which usually results in knee-jerk transfers out, which again, could result in price drops.

Has form been judged too soon?

One thing that is clear in the table is that there is a clear preference towards West Brom and Man United defenders. After three matches, both sides have kept two clean sheets and between them have two players topping the budget (£4.0m - £4.7m) and premium (£5.3m - £6.5m) categories. Meanwhile, last seasons top defenders from the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham have slumped to the lower end of the table, either due to low attacking returns or having picked up one less clean sheet. Danny Rose averaged a goal or assist every 266 minutes last season, whilst Cesar Azpilicueta (457), Hector Bellerin (463) and Toby Alderweireld (489) also have impressive attacking returns per minute. Based on this, those who have yet to score/assist could be due in the upcoming game weeks. The four previously mentioned have price tags of £6.0m or higher, meaning that if you don't opt for them now it could be tough getting them into your side (without a point hit) should they come into form.

Midfielder Ownership Trends:

MF - Ownership (filtered by budget) Étienne Capoue (WAT) has got off to a flyer this season, finding the back of the net on two occasions and cementing a place as a template pick amongst FPL managers using their wildcard. The £0.2m price increase on Capoue will have no doubt put a few budget conscious managers off, which explains the average ownership percentage of Darren Fletcher (WBA). Raheem Sterling (MCI) is the template pick from the mid-priced midfielders (£5.0m - £8.4m) after picking up a goal or assist in every match so far. Erik Lamela (TOT) has very high ownership after returning the majority of Spurs' attacking points. Nathan Redmond (SOU) has high ownership due to being the highest point scorer in the £6.0m/£6.1m category. Elsewhere, Ross Barkley (EVE) and Michail Antonio (WHM) have shown good short-term form and have favourable upcoming fixtures. The highest point scorer in FPL so far, Eden Hazard (CHE) has been selected by a whopping 94.6% of managers for their wildcard teams. This makes him a template pick in the premium midfielder category (£8.5m - £11.0m) and no doubt the first name of every team sheet. Mesut Ozil (ARS) joins him as the second premium midfielder template pick after scoring on his Premier League return last game week. Other than teammate Alexis Sanchez (ARS) who has a high ownership of 34.2%, there's few other trends in this category.

Observations From The Table

It's clear that the majority of managers are selecting Capoue as a budget enabler along with Hazard, Ozil and Sterling, then opting for one of the many in-form mid-priced midfielders.

Are you chasing last week's points?

“He who scored last week, will score again this week” has been the casual player's mantra since the beginning of FPL and largely dictates the price rises week in, week out. As it stands, all ten of the highest midfield point scorers on FPL make our table and their ownership largely resembles their total point score. Eden Hazard (25pts), Raheem Sterling (24pts) & Étienne Capoue (23pts) are the first, second and third highest scoring midfielders on FPL and all head their respective budget categories. The rest of the FPL top ten includes Sanchez, Fer, Cazorla, Coutinho, Nolito and Antonio who all feature across the tables. Of course overall points are a good way to understand which players are in form, but this approach presents the same problems now as it would in a later game week. Overall points tell you which players were in-form, not which players are in-form. Three matches (not even an equal mix of home/away matches) is a small sample size and you run the risk of filling your team with players who were in form and missing those now coming into form. Don't forget: FPL operates in complete herd mentality and the hardest part is making your own decisions.

A wealth of premium differentials.

One thing that we found particularly interesting was that, of the eight ‘template pick' players, 50% of them were in the midfield category. This suggests that the majority of the FPL managers who used their wildcard ahead of Gameweek 4 had their mind fixed on a set four midfielders. Not only will it be interesting to see how these four (Capoue, Sterling, Hazard & Ozil) perform of the next month, but it'll be interesting to see which of the other midfielders would have been better choices. Dimitri Payet (WHM) is expected to return to the frame this weekend and it's always tough to ignore the calibre of the French midfielder who set the Premier League, and Euro 2016, alight. Meanwhile, Kevin de Bruyne (MCI) & Nolito (MCI) are great counter options to widely owned teammate Raheem Sterling. Sadio Mane (LIV) & Riyad Mahrez (LEI) could also come up big again in the next few weeks after promising displays in their opening matches.

Forward Ownership Trends:

FW - Ownership (filtered by budget) Andre Gray (BUR) and Adama Diomande (HUL) are the most popular budget forwards (£4.5m - £6.5m) despite only having average ownership levels. The pair have both found the net so far this season and the choice of which largely depends on your budget constraints. Cristhian Stuani (MID) following his brace against Sunderland, and Salomon Rondon (WBA) with his favourable upcoming fixtures, trail behind with lower ownership. Alvaro Negredo (MID) tops the mid-priced forwards (£6.6m - £8.5m) list after moving out of the budget category following his £0.4m price rise since the beginning of the season. One in five managers have opted for Christian Benteke (CRY) following his move to Crystal Palace. Jermaine Defoe (SUN) & Wilfried Bony (STO) appear to be the popular counter-choices for this category. Zlatan Ibrahimovic (MUN) is the only template forward pick, with three goals in three games, and finds himself in 87.4% of wildcard teams. Diego Costa (CHE) and Romelu Lukaku (EVE) both have high ownership as a result of reinvested Aguero money. Meanwhile, last season's gems Harry Kane (TOT) and Jamie Vardy (LEI) are struggling to earn the trust of FPL managers.

Observations From The Table

A slump in ownership for the budget forwards could suggest that the majority of wildcard plans revolve around a 3-4-3 formation.

Aguero money reinvested on three premium strikers.

Only 11.8% of managers have opted to keep Sergio Aguero (MCI) in their team ahead of his two gameweek ban (one of his three match ban will be served against Swansea in the League Cup). This strategy is widely debated as it means you won't have to potentially take a point hit bringing him back in for GW6, but does mean you'll have a large chunk of your team's budget sitting on the bench for two weeks. The table suggests that the majority of wildcard-ers are opting for the lucrative attacking trio of Ibrahimovic (MUN), Costa (CHE) and Lukaku (EVE). However, depending on your choice of midfielders you may be forced to downgrade one of the three to a mid-priced option, with Negredo (MID) and Benteke (CRY) being the favourites.

An unconditional love for Romelu Lukaku?

Romelu Lukaku has failed to score in three appearances for the Toffees this term and last scored a Premier League goal in March. This hasn't impacted his ownership though with 34.2% of managers selecting him in their wildcard teams. We've all seen his upcoming fixture list and agree that five of his upcoming six look very appealing, however, so you've activated your wildcard in Gameweek 3 which therefore suggests your patience for player(s) is three weeks. So let's look at some other options for the next three weeks, who have very low ownership. Harry Kane (TOT) faces up against Stoke (A), Sunderland (H) & Middlesbrough (A) who after three games each, have one clean sheet between them. Last week he picked up an assist and more importantly we're no longer in August; a month where he's never scored a Premier League goal. Jamie Vardy (LEI) has a slightly tougher run including Liverpool (A), Burnley (H) & Man United (A). He will have restored some confidence last week after scoring his first goal of the season against Swansea and in Gameweek 4 faces Liverpool who have so far conceded an average of two goals per game. Vardy is fixture-proof when he hits form and last season he became the first player to score in 11 consecutive Premier League matches.

Template Teams:

Using the data available we've created a number of different teams based around ownership percentages, formations and strategies. For the sake of this article not growing even longer, we've decided to limit the amount we embed to four. If you have any ideas for teams, please get in touch as I'll happily make more to request. Template Teams 1:2 The two teams above are based entirely around ownership. The team on the left was created by using the 11 highest ownership players without breaking formation. The value of this team is £104.2m so it's not a feasible option, but it serves as an example of the overall template team. The team on the right was created by using the 11 highest ownership players but sticking to a overall budget of £101.0m, a fee more affordable to those who have been building team value over the international break. It serves as an example of the affordable template team. Template Teams 3:4 Unlike the previous two which were based entirely around statistics, these two tables are based around formations and strategy, which means that they contain an element of personal opinion. The team on the left is 3-5-2 formation that boasts seven strong attacking players and no budget midfielders. I've also tried to keep it as rounded as possible with a decent defence and within a overall of budget (£100.7m) The team of the right is a team that includes several differentials and an overall ownership of 26.42%. I didn't compromise the team by purposely avoiding all template picks (hence the inclusion of Hazard, Ozil & Ibrahimovic), but I tried to include players that have slipped the radar and that I tipped previously in the article (Payet, Rose, De Gea). Although I wouldn't recommend running with this team, I hope it'll provide some good food for thought.

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