Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League Captain Tips for Gameweek 30 article. This week jamieFPL returns to analyse the best candidates for your captain's armband. First off, apologies for there being no captaincy article last game week. It wouldn't have been right for me to suggest any alternative players to Sergio Aguero, on a week where he faced a lifeless Aston Villa. This week fantasy managers are faced with a much harder decision, as the popular FPL front three (Aguero, Kane & Vardy) all take on teams in the relegation battle. Therefore, I've returned to analyse each player's form, fixture and odds to help you come to a verdict on which one is the best option ahead of Gameweek 30.

Home/Away Goalscoring Form

Player	Form	Goals
Aguero	Away	4 (1-2-1-0)
Kane	Away	3 (1-2-0-0)
Vardy	Home	3 (1-2-0-0)

  The table above compares each player's goal scoring form. The data has been taken from their last four Premier League matches - either home or away - depending on where their fixture takes place in Gameweek 30. E.g. Aguero's data shows his last four away matches, as he faces Norwich (A). As you can see from the table we are dealing with very narrow margins. Kane's away form is exactly the same as Vardy's home form, with neither scoring in their last two home/away matches. All three players blanked in their last home/away match, however Sergio Aguero did manage to find the net in the previous fixture, unlike like the other two.

Home/Away Opposition Defensive Form

Team	Form	Goals Conceded
Norwich	Home	12 (5-3-2-2)
Newcastle	Away	11 (2-3-5-1)
Aston Villa	Home	10 (1-0-6-3)

  The table above compares each team's defensive form. The data has been taken from their last four Premier League matches - either home or away - depending on where their fixture takes place in Gameweek 30. E.g. Norwich's data shows their last four home matches, as they face Man City (H). Again we're dealt with very little data to separate the three strikers. All opposing teams have struggled defensively conceding at least 2.5 goals per game from their last four home/away. Aguero narrowly leads this one again with Norwich conceding 12 goals in their last four matches at Carrow Road. Poor home fans!

Recent Goalscoring Form

Player	SOT	BC	G
Aguero	7	5	3
Kane	9	4	2
Vardy	5	5	1

  The table above shows compares each player's attacking form from their last four Premier League matches, regardless of whether it's home or away. It displays who has had the most shots on target (SoT), big chances (BC) and scored the most goals (G). Aguero and Kane both recorded four shots on target last weekend, which helped them accelerate away from Vardy who failed to hit the target. All three have recorded a similar amount of big chances. We can use this to highlight how clinical they've been, by comparing it to the amount of goals they've scored.. Aguero has converted 60% of his big chances, Kane - who has had one less big chance - has managed to put away 50%, whereas Vardy is lagging behind with a 20% conversion rate.

Recent Opposition Defensive Form

Team	BCC	GC
Aston Villa	15	15
Newcastle	4	9
Norwich	4	6

  The table above shows compares each team's defensive form from their last four Premier League matches, regardless of whether it's home or away. It displays who conceded the most big chances (BCC) and goals (GC). Finally, we've been presented with some data that really swings the balance. Aston Villa in the last four weeks have by far conceded the most big chances and goals. Norwich, however, have only conceded an average of one big chance per game, which is miniscule in comparison to Villa's 3.75 per game. The table also reveals that despite conceding nine in their last four, Newcastle have presented fewer chances to their opposition in recent weeks.

Roundup

Sergio Aguero has averaged a goal per game from his last four matches on the road and looks, by far, the safest captain pick this weekend. Norwich have struggled at home, conceding 12 in their last four and with Aguero converting 60% of his big chances you would bet on him finding the score sheet in this one. Harry Kane faces an Aston Villa side who have conceded the most big chances (15) and goals (15). He's had the most shots on target (9), scored last weekend against Arsenal and has three from his last four on the road. Finally, Jamie Vardy looks the most reasonable differential option from the three, despite playing at home. His conversion rate of 20% and failure to score in three successive matches casts him into the shadows of Aguero and Kane. However, he is the league's top scorer and Leicester are facing a disrupted Newcastle side.  

The Verdict

With the Arsenal game now postponed and disregarding pre transfers, it's predicted that 40% of the top 10k will have eight or less players available for Gameweek 30 (thanks /u/knoxvox). If you're prepared, this is an excellent chance to gain an advantage. If you're in the top 150k, it would be logical to captain Aguero and let your other 10 players close the gap on those above you. If you're in the top 150k but aren't fielding a full XI, you could use Kane as an alternative captain to close the gap if Aguero blanks. In addition, this tactic would also apply to those looking to climb the overall rankings into the top 10%. This weekend could also be the perfect opportunity to go against the grain and captain Vardy, but make sure your decision is relative to your individual goal.