Dec 14

Fantasy Premier League Defensive Analysis For Gameweek 28

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Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League Defensive Analysis For Gameweek 28 article. NaturalFootyFan returns to highlight clubs with the best clean sheet potential ahead of the midweek fixtures. Clean Sheets were a rare occurrence in Gameweek 27, with just four of the 16 clubs on show securing a shutout. Leicester City extended their gap at the top, clinching a 1-0 victory in the 88th minute. Elsewhere, Watford and Bournemouth played out a goal-less draw, while West Ham kept a lively Sunderland side at bay in a 1-0 win at Boleyn Ground.

In Form Defences Ahead Of Gameweek 28:

Moving into Gameweek 28, let's kick things off by taking a look at recent form. The following table highlights the top ten defences based on their number of clean sheets (CS) and goals conceded (GC) in their last four Premier League matches:
Team Clean Sheets Goals Conceded
Southampton 3 2
Tottenham 2 2
Watford 2 2
Everton 2 3
Leicester 2 3
West Ham 2 3
Chelsea 1 3
Arsenal 2 4
Liverpool 1 4
West Brom 1 4
  We're starting to get a little tired of Southampton leading our form chart, nevertheless, with six clean sheets in their last seven Premier League matches their position is fully justified. Although they conceded a couple versus Chelsea at the weekend, this is just a minor wound for The Saints and they will travel to Dean Court as outright favourites.  Their hosts, Bournemouth, have struggled to find the net recently with just a single goal throughout their last four games. Tottenham and Watford make up the top three in our chart having conceded twice and kept two clean sheets apiece in the last four Gameweek's. Spurs are unbeaten in their last 12 away matches and have proved consistently solid throughout the campaign, while Watford, although struggling offensively, are improving defensively - week in, week out.  Everton and Leicester are on the outskirts of the top three in terms of defensive form, but are definitely worth considering. The Toffees put in a strong performance in the FA Cup, with a comfortable two goals to nil win over Bournemouth, and we expect them to push Villa aside in similar fashion. While Leicester are now five points clear at the top of the table and will use this momentum to take the game to West Bromwich Albion at the King Power.

Easiest Defensive Fixture In Gameweek 28:

The table below displays the top ten defences based on opposition goals scored (GS) and big chances (BC) created. Capital letters are used for home teams and lowercase for away teams. The data is taken from the last four Premier League matches:
Team Vs. Goals Scored Big Chances
che NOR 2 5
MUN wat 2 8
eve AVL 3 2
ARS swa 3 3
sou BOU 3 5
BOU sou 3 5
cry SUN 4 4
new STO 5 2
LEI wba 5 5
SUN cry 5 5
  The table highlights that Chelsea's trip to Carrow Road is the easiest fixture on paper. Norwich have only managed to score twice in their last four fixtures - conjuring up just five big chances in the process. In contrast, Chelsea are running like a well-oiled machine - smashing five past Man City in the FA Cup, before netting twice against a side (Southampton) who hadn't conceded in six matches this weekend. Norwich City won't pose much of a threat going forward, so Guus Hiddink's men can continue to strut their stuff all over the park. Man United come in at second as they welcome Watford to Old Trafford. Off the back of their decisive win over Arsenal, The Red Devils will aim to use this as a stepping stone towards a potential top 4 finish. They've won their last 10 matches against Watford in all competitions - conceding just seven goals along the way and The Hornets have become too reliant on Ighalo and Deeney to produce the goods. If United can clamp down on this pair, a clean sheet looks on the cards. Everton complete the top three, with an extremely attractive fixture against Aston Villa. When a side is playing away from home it is often seen as a disadvantage, however, The Toffees have conceded almost half as many goals on the road this campaign (Home - 23, Away -12), so look a strong proposition for Tuesday. Aston Villa's confidence will be rock-bottom at the moment having scored the fewest goals in the Premier League this season, whilst also sporting the lowest chance conversion rate, scoring with just 10% of their shots.

Bookies Clean Sheet Odds For Gameweek 28:

The table below displays the top ten teams based on the bookies odds to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 28. The odds have been converted into implied chance percentage:
Team CS IC%
Arsenal 1.80 54%
Man United 1.95 51%
Leicester 2.05 41%
Chelsea 2.25 44%
Everton 2.25 44%
Stoke 2.37 42%
Tottenham 2.60 38%
Southampton 2.75 36%
Sunderland 2.87 35%
Crystal Palace 3.10 32%
  Arsenal are the bookies favourite for a clean sheet in Gameweek 28. They entertain Swansea City, in a match-up which has proved difficult for The Gunners in the past. The nine Barclays Premier League matches between Arsenal and Swansea City have seen four wins apiece and one draw - two of those wins for Swansea coming at the Emirates Stadium. Despite past statistics being stacked up against the home club, Arsenal are one of only two sides who have conceded less than double figures (8) on home soil this season. Next in line is Manchester United, who also featured in our fixture difficulty section. They have a 51% implied chance for a clean sheet and face a goal-shy Watford outfit. With question marks surrounding the manager, backroom staff and club as a whole, their 3-2 win over Arsenal will have done a lot for the teams togetherness. Van Gaal will be hoping they can overwhelm Watford and record their fourth win in succession.

Clean Sheet Verdict:

Based on our analysis and research methods we now have our top three recommendations based on form, fixture and odds. We have also thrown in a gamble for good measure in preparation for Gameweek 28: Form:  Southampton (vs. BOU) Southampton have been the staple defensive pick in recent weeks and despite their slip-up this weekend, nothing changes. They dominated the reverse fixture this season and with ex-Celtic teammates, Van Dijk and Fraser Forster, the spine of their squad is incredibly resilient. Fixture: Chelsea (vs. NOR) As we mentioned earlier, Chelsea have finally found their feet in the Premier League and their progression into the top 10 will be accomplished in the near future. Obviously, this isn't something to be proud of as reigning Champions, however, they are making positive strides and should demonstrate their stature over Norwich. Odds: Arsenal (vs. SWA) Backing Arsenal at The Emirates is always a well-educated decision, as they generally dominate possession and pin mid-table quality sides, like Swansea, in their own half. Per Mertesacker is expected to return for this one, to sure up the defence following a shaky performance by Gabriel Paulista at the weekend. Gamble: Manchester United (vs. WAT) Like we stated earlier, if United can keep Ighalo and Deeney on a tight leash, then a clean sheet is theirs for the taking. The strike-duo have contributed to a staggering 76% of The Hornets goals this season and Van Gaal will reinforce this point to his players. Hopefully they won't be distracted by rude words or a full-blown demonstration!