Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League Attacking Analysis For Gameweek 28. This week jamieFPL returns to analyse which teams have the highest chance of finding the back of the net this weekend.
We are going to use recent goalscoring form, opposition defensive statistics and the bookies odds to determine which teams have the greatest chance of scoring.
Liverpool missed out on Gameweek 27 action due to their involvement in the League Cup which means their data range stretches back an additional week to include their 5-4 away win over Norwich.
This week they have the chance to seek revenge on Manchester City after the blues clinched the League Cup on penalties. Liverpool will need to improve their home form however, scoring just twice in their last three at Anfield.
Manchester United and Chelsea are looking lethal in attack on home soil, both averaging at three goals per game from their last two. This game week The Reds will look to maintain their goal scoring record against the third most in-form defence when they host Watford.
Chelsea on the other hand have the perfect opportunity to improve their goal scoring form away from home when they travel to Carrow Road. Norwich have been leaking goals but looked convincing against Leicester last weekend and unfortunately lost their clean sheet in the 89th minute.
Tottenham have the second best goal scoring record on the road from their last four and this weekend travel to West Ham looking to close the gap on Leicester who host West Brom.
Everton return from their extended break to the pleasure of facing the Premier League's leakiest defence. This game week The Toffee's take on Aston Villa who have conceded an average of 2.5 goals a game from their last four.
Sunderland have won two of their last four Premier League home matches and will be looking to take a vital three points from the Crystal Palace, who last won in Gameweek 17, making them the most out of form side in the league.
Stoke vs. Newcastle has the potential to bring a lot of goals with both sides conceding two goals per game on average. Stoke have conceded the highest number of big chances and until Shawcross returns you can expect this to continue.
Newcastle will need to improve their away form if they're to capitalise on Stoke's defensive frailties. The Magpies have lost their last five matches on the road, scoring a measly two goals in the process.
Arsenal are the Bookmakers favourites to find the back of the net in Gameweek 28, with a 66.67% implied chance of scoring more than two goals. They host a Swansea side who are sitting perilously close to the relegation zone and in desperate need for all three points.
This sets the stage for an open match, with both sides sharing a common aim of climbing the table, albeit at other ends of the spectrum. In the reverse fixture this season, The Gunners eased to a 3-0 victory, and will be even more confident at The Emirates.
Chelsea have improved massively under Guus Hiddink's and boast a 65% win percentage in the Premier League since the Dutchman's arrival. They've won seven and lost none of their last nine meetings with Norwich.
The Canaries have conceded 10 times in their last three Premier League matches at home, so Chelsea will be confident they can score a handful of goals and bank their third successive win for the first time since April 2015.
Leicester make up the top 3 in terms of Bookies Odds to score over two goals in Gameweek 28, as they welcome West Brom to the King Power. After sneaking the three-points in the 88th minute on Saturday, Leicester will be hoping for a less nervous finale tomorrow.
The Baggies are in-form, scoring three goals in a match for the first time since pre-season - a very rare occasion for a Tony Pulis side. However, Leicester are a free-scoring side and the deadly duo of Vardy and Mahrez will be ready to pounce after failing to get on the scoresheet at the weekend.
Recent Team Goalscoring Form:
The table below displays the top seven teams based on average goals per game. It also highlights how many of each team's goals were scored at home compared to away. Gameweek Range: GW24-27 (EVE/LIV: GW23-26)| Team | Home | Away | Goals Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 2 | 11 | 3.25 |
| Man United | 6 | 2 | 2.00 |
| Tottenham | 3 | 5 | 2.00 |
| Chelsea | 6 | 2 | 2.00 |
| Leicester | 3 | 4 | 1.75 |
| Arsenal | 2 | 4 | 1.50 |
| Everton | 4 | 3 | 1.75 |
Who Faces The Worst Defence In Gameweek 28:
The table below displays the top seven teams based on opposition defensive form. It highlights the opposing team's number of goals conceded and big chances conceded from last four Premier League matches.| Team | Vs. | Goals Conceded | Big Chances Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|
| eve | AVL | 10 | 9 |
| SUN | cry | 8 | 9 |
| new | STO | 8 | 12 |
| che | NOR | 8 | 8 |
| STO | new | 8 | 5 |
| sot | BOU | 6 | 6 |
| cry | SUN | 5 | 9 |
Team Odds To Score In Gameweek 28:
The table below displays the top seven teams based on the bookies odds to score 2+ Goals in Gameweek 28. The odds have been converted to an implied chance percentage.| Team | To Score 2+ Goals |
|---|---|
| Arsenal | 66.67% |
| Chelsea | 61.73% |
| Leicester | 57.80% |
| Manchester United | 54.64% |
| Everton | 52.63% |
| Tottenham | 51.28% |
| Stoke | 50.00% |
