Euro 2016 has already provided some serious upsets and true underdog stories. 69 goals, 23 clean sheets and some priceless Gabor Kiraly showboating later, it's now time to put the group stages behind us and progress into Round of 16.
In this week's Euro Fantasy Tips for Round of 16, we'll be looking at the best strategy going forward and who are the essential, differential and bargain players to bring in with your unlimited transfers.
First of all, let's take a look at how the draw panned out:
Round of 16 Fixtures:
Saturday, 25 June
Switzerland vs. Poland (15:00)
Wales vs. Northern Ireland (18:00)
Croatia vs. Portugal (21:00)
Sunday, 26 June
France vs. Ireland (15:00)
Germany vs. Slovakia (18:00)
Hungary vs. Belgium (21:00)
Monday, 27 June
Italy vs. Spain (18:00)
England vs. Iceland (21:00)
Ahead of the Quarter Finals, Euro Fantasy managers will be given just 4 free transfers. This is not many when you consider your squad size of 15, so if you don't want to take point hits you'll need to plan strategically and hope for no upsets.
To help make sense of which teams are predicted to qualify, we've used Oddschecker to compile a table of which teams are expected to progress.
Round of 16 Odds To Qualify
| Team |
Odds |
Implied Chance |
| Germany |
1/5 |
83.33% |
| France |
1/5 |
83.33% |
| Belgium |
1/4 |
80.00% |
| England |
1/4 |
80.00% |
| Wales |
4/9 |
69.23% |
| Spain |
4/7 |
63.64% |
| Poland |
8/11 |
57.89% |
| Croatia |
8/11 |
57.89% |
| Switzerland |
11/10 |
47.62% |
| Portugal |
11/10 |
47.62% |
| Italy |
11/8 |
42.11% |
| Northern Ireland |
7/4 |
36.36% |
| Iceland |
5/2 |
28.57% |
| Hungary |
3/1 |
25.00% |
| Republic of Ireland |
7/2 |
22.22% |
| Slovakia |
100/30 |
23.08% |
Our recommended strategy is to spread your ownership amongst a handful of countries, since the majority of the fixtures are hard to predict. The table above displays Germany, France & England as favourites to progress but it's up to you to choose which of these implied outcomes you back.
In our opinion, we agree strongly with the bookies regarding Germany, France England and Belgium progressing to the Quarter Finals. Therefore, if there's four teams you'd load up on it's those. Meanwhile, Wales, Spain, Poland and Croatia are worth having some coverage from with all teams having over a 50% implied chance of making it through.
Spain vs. Italy is no doubt the hardest fixture to call, so holding off on their players or taking a defender from one and an attacker from the other could serve as a good conservative strategy.
Essentials Players For Round of 16
Dimitri Payet (€8.1) vs. Republic of Ireland
France versus the Republic of Ireland is perhaps the biggest mismatch on show as the hosts 83.22% implied chance of progressing hugely contrasts their opponents 22.22%. We stand by this, and predict a comfortable win for Les Bleus. This is not the chief reason why Dimitri Payet is a ‘must have', but it's certainly a contributing factor.
The weight of carrying West Ham throughout the 2015/16 Premier League season dosen't seem to have taken it's toll on the Frenchman, as he's already the bookies favourite to win the Player of the Tournament award.
Gareth Bale (€10.5) vs. Northern Ireland
Who'd have thought a Welshman would be an essential player at this stage of the tournament? No, we didn't either… but Wales have upset the odds and now stand in pole position to go one step further. They take on Northern Ireland who scraped through in third place with just three points.
The Real Madrid winger is at the centre of just about everything Wales do, so he will see plenty of action in a match his country are expected to dominate. Bale found the net in each of his group stage matches, and is the designated free-kick and penalty taker.
Thomas Muller (€10.5) vs. Slovakia
Germany have been there, done that, and should breeze past Slovakia into the Quarter Finals. On paper, their single-goal victory over Northern Ireland doesn't look very impressive, however, they started to click on the offensive side of things with 26 attempts on goal.
Failing to contribute with any goals or assists versus Ukraine and Poland, many began to doubt the usually ever-reliable Thomas Muller. Nevertheless, he hit back in Germany's final fixture with an action packed display - grabbing an assist, hitting the woodwork twice and attempting six shots. He's still searching for his first goal of Euro 2016, and we are tipping it to come in the Round of 16.
Differential Players For Round of 16
Aaron Ramsey (€7.6) vs. Northern Ireland
The Arsenal man can be a very frustrating figure at times… and we're not just talking about the hair! Although disappointing on occasions, Ramsey is unplayable on his day. When his confidence is flowing he provides a significant goal-scoring threat with late runs into the box.
He had ‘one of those days' in Wales' onslaught of Russia to book their place in the last 16 and finish top of Group B. Throughout the match Ramsey was often left unmarked, as he intelligently took up dangerous positions between the Welsh midfield and attack.
Alvaro Morata (€8.5) vs. Italy
Spain's number 9 is the joint top-scorer in this tournament alongside Gareth Bale, and will be hoping to add more to his account during the latter stages of the competition. Morata faces tough opposition in Italy, which is why he's labelled a differential.
Question marks surround his future at club level, however, this clearly hasn't distracted him on the International stage. If he wants his future to be based in Madrid, then he has done himself a big favour already, but winning the golden boot would be a different story.
Arkadiusz Milik (€7.5) vs. Switzerland
The Ajax youngster was anticipated to play in Robert Lewandowski's shadow, but finished the group stage a step ahead of his strike partner with a goal and assist to his name - while also receiving the Man of the Match award in Poland's final fixture vs. Ukraine.
On average per game in Euro 2016, Milik ranks inside the top 20 players in terms of shots attempted (3) and key passes made (2). These statistics highlight his potential to try his luck himself, but also to link with his teammates in the build-up play.
Bargain Players For Round of 16
Ivan Perisic (€7.7) vs. Portugal
After Croatia's superb form in Group D, their top-scorer Perisic was on the verge of making our ‘Essential Players' list. That in itself cements the fact that you should have him in your squad, especially at this price.
The winger has found the net twice in his last two appearances, while adding an assist to his account versus Spain. Shooting on sight is a key characteristic to look for in Euro Fantasy, especially for a midfielder, and Perisic fits the bill perfectly with an average of three attempts on goal per game.
Kamil Grosicki (€6.9) vs. Switzerland
Grosicki has struggled to shake off an ankle injury, missing his country's opener and featuring off the bench in the last match. For this reason his price has dropped by €0.1.
On a positive note, the midfielder, who contributed heavily in qualifying (2 goals and 5 assists in Poland's last 5 qualifiers) is expected to return to the starting lineup for the clash versus Switzerland. Grosicki will be handed corner duty, and with Lewandowski and Milik sniffing around the box, there's always a chance of an assist.
Thomas Meunier (€4.5) vs. Hungary
The 24-year-old was initially Belgium's third choice right-back, but through a combination of injuries and personal performances, has worked his way into Marc Wilmots' starting XI. Meunier played the full 90 minutes in his country's last couple of fixtures - securing two clean sheets and an assist for a total of 14 Euro Fantasy points.
At this price, and the fact Belgium have favourable fixtures on their side - Hungary in the Round of 16, before facing Wales or Northern Ireland if they reach the Quarter Finals, the Club Brugge defender is a top quality bargain.
