Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week's Premier League fixtures.
All data is from the last six gameweeks and the information in this article is correct as of 18 December 2020.
The forward look - GW14:
| Crystal Palace | v | Liverpool |
| 15% | Win % | 67% |
| 13% | Clean sheet % | 40% |
| Benteke (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Firmino (4) |
| Eze (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Robertson (2) |
| Van Aanholt (33.4) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Salah (32.9) |
| 11 | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 13 |
| 9 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 18 (joint second most) |
| Southampton | v | Man City |
| 14% | Win % | 70% |
| 13% | Clean sheet % | 42% |
| Walcott (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Sterling (5) |
| Adams (5) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | De Bryune (9) |
| Bednarek (31.4) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | De Bryune (48.3) |
| 10 | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 20 (most) |
| 12 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 3 (fewest) |
| Everton | v | Arsenal |
| 44% | Win % | 32% |
| 29% | Clean sheet % | 25% |
| Calvert-Lewin (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Saka (3) |
| Digne (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Bellerin (3) |
| Calvert-Lewin (33.2) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Tierney (28.9) |
| 13 | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 9 |
| 15 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 10 |
| Newcastle | v | Fulham |
| 40% | Win % | 34% |
| 33% | Clean sheet % | 31% |
| Wilson (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Caveleiro (5) |
| Joelinton (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Lookman (2) |
| Darlow (23.2) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Cavelerio (37.6) |
| 5 (second fewest) | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 16 |
| 8 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 19 (most) |
| Brighton | v | Sheffield United |
| 59% | Win % | 20% |
| 50% | Clean sheet % | 33% |
| Wellbeck (4) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | McBurnie (4) |
| Wellbeck (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Burke (3) |
| Gross (30.7) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Baldock (30.5) |
| 14 | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 10 |
| 10 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 17 |
| Tottenham | v | Leicester |
| 49% | Win % | 28% |
| 33% | Clean sheet % | 22% |
| Kane (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Vardy (7) |
| Son (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Justin (3) |
| Lloris (31.3) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Vardy (38.2) |
| 11 | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 12 |
| 5 (third fewest) | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 15 |
| Man United | v | Leeds |
| 60% | Win % | 22% |
| 31% | Clean sheet % | 14% |
| Rashford (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Bamford (6) |
| Fernandes (6) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Kilch (3) |
| Fernandes (43.1) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Bamford (34.2) |
| 19 (second most) | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 13 |
| 11 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 18 (joint second most) |
| West Brom | v | Aston Villa |
| 28% | Win % | 52% |
| 20% | Clean sheet % | 33% |
| Bartley (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Watkins (4) |
| Pereira (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Grealish (2) |
| Johnstone (28.1) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Grealish (26.5) |
| 4 (fewest) | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 11 |
| 18 (joint second most) | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 7 |
| Burnley | v | Wolves |
| 28% | Win % | 47% |
| 29% | Clean sheet % | 42% |
| Wood (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Dendoncker (4) |
| McNeill (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Neto (1) |
| Wood (28.4) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Neto (30.7) |
| 6 (third fewest) | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 8 |
| 14 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 11 |
| Chelsea | v | West Ham |
| 69% | Win % | 16% |
| 40% | Clean sheet % | 13% |
| Werner (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Soucek (3) |
| Ziyech (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Bowen (3) |
| Chilwell (37.7) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Bowen (29.2) |
| 18 (third most) | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 14 |
| 4 (second fewest) | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 13 |
Braveheart's GW13 review:
I won't dissect GW13 too much as I want to get this article out in good time ahead of the next deadline tomorrow morning and GW13 only just finished last night. The main surprise, for me, was that both KDB and Bruno blanked - what were the odds on that happening? A few weeks ago I knew I'd be hiding behind my sofa for the City v WBA match so I felt as though I dodged a bullet there but FPL karma bit back the following night as Bruno blanked too (and as his game had more happening in it, he didn't even get a few nice bonus points like the Belgian). I got 43 points (so slightly above the average) but a small red arrow down 50k to 700k. Only Salah and Bamford scored for me, but there were assists from Chilwell and Calvert-Lewin as well as a clean sheet from my first sub Taylor (deputising for the absent Mahrez).
At the time of writing, the players on my "out list":
- Ramsdale - still no clean sheets and Sheffield United look like they are doomed for a relegation dogfight this season so I need to get rid of Ramsdale soon - Mendy and Martinez are potential replacements but I'd need to make money elsewhere to accomodate such a move,,
- Mahrez - he was rested against West Brom so that might mean he features against Southampton, I'm looking to replace him for Son in the not too distant future (maybe even this week if I can find a move elsewhere which will save me 1.2m).
Braveheart's GW14 reveal:
Last week I made no moves and so I go into GW14 with 2 FTs and 0.0m in the bank. If I want to upgrade the two players on my out list, I'd need to downgrade elsewhere. So the likes of Calvert-Lewin to Adams or Watkins have been considered but I don't really feel comfortable with getting rid of DCL at this stage as he's only blanked twice in 13 gameweeks this season. He is a steady stream of points.
I have my first wildcard in tact so I plan on spending the next few days (off on annual leave for Christmas now) to see what I want to do about the blank in GW18 and the doubles in GW19. I've not given it much thought right now as I have the luxury of that first wildcard.
At the time of writing, I'm considering either burning a transfer or improving my bench but there are no transfers that I think improve my team. This is perhaps a sign that I've held onto my wildcard too long but I suspect I'll be grateful for that in the next couple of weeks as I ponder my chip strategy.
If I make no moves this week, my team for GW14 will be as follows (if I make a move following the press conferences, I'll update it on my Twitter):
- Ramsdale v Brighton (a)
- Chilwell v West Ham (h)
- Walker-Peters v Man City (h)
- Taylor v Wolves (h)
- Salah v Crystal Palace (a)
- Fernandes (captain) v Leeds (h)
- Mahrez v Southampton (a)
- Grealish v West Brom (a)
- Kane v Leicester (h)
- Calvert-Lewin v Arsenal (h)
- Bamford v Man United (a)
The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW14. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!
