To follow up from our previous player tips articles,
NaturalFootyFan is back once again with a statistical comparison of the best 6.5m forwards for fantasy premier league 2016/17.
A frequent discussion in FPL is often, ‘which premium striker(s) should I choose'? In our opinion, this is one of the most predictable and template picks you will make when confirming your squad of 15. Aguero remains a must-have for the majority of competitors, while the appearance of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and the price tag attached to Harry Kane has cut funds even further.
This opens up a void for at least one budget striker and having spent a couple of weeks navigating FPL's official site, we've come to the conclusion that the 6.5m price bracket is clearly the most suitable option.
If you have found yourself reading this article, we are sure you know the basic positives and negatives surrounding each forward in the 6.5m bracket, so rather than give another opinion on who you should choose, we have provided a variety of player statistics to further contribute to your research.
Before we head into the main discussion, there is one notable absentee who didn't make the final seven-man list and that's Saido Berahino. With the transfer saga permanently lingering over his head, combined with his conflict with manager Tony Pulis and the imminent arrival of Diafra Sakho, we feel his game time is hugely limited this season.
Note: all stats are relevant to each player's 2015/16 league campaign. We have decided that filtering the statistics to display the player's average per 90 minutes gives a fair comparison, with the likes of Callum Wilson and Charlie Austin making cameo appearances last season.
Goals Scored
| Player |
Goals Scored |
Goals per 90mins |
| Gray |
23 |
0.61 |
| Long |
10 |
0.42 |
| Carroll |
9 |
0.56 |
| Rondon |
9 |
0.32 |
| Wilson |
5 |
0.59 |
| Negredo |
5 |
0.38 |
| Austin |
1 |
0.42 |
*Statistics provided by Squawka Matrix Comparison tool.
Andre Gray is the runaway leader in terms of goals scored last season, however, this is to be expected as the only player featuring at a second-tier standard. Nevertheless, 23 strikes is an impressive feat and must be taken seriously, especially as he also leads the goals per 90 minutes average. At 0.61, this puts Gray just outside the top 10 in the Premier League last season - proving that despite playing at a lower level, he is clinical. With eight goals in pre-season already, his confidence will be sky high.
With a gap of 13 goals separating the top two individuals, Shane Long comes in at second on the list. The Southampton striker found the net ten times during the 2015/16 campaign and looks, for the first time in his career, like a proper centre-forward. He runs the channels tirelessly and links the play efficiently - the perfect player to get under the skin of the opposition.
Tough fixtures don't seem to be an issue for the Irishman as he netted vs. Arsenal twice, Man City home and away and Chelsea away last season. So with opening encounters against Watford (H), Man United (a), Sunderland (H), Arsenal (a) and Swansea (H), there's a nice mix of attractive fixtures and big matches which he often comes to life in.
Another player worthy of a mention in this category is Callum Wilson. The 24-year-old burst onto the scene with five goals in his first six appearances last season, but was unfortunately struck down with a cruciate ligament rupture in Gameweek 7, ruling him out for a large chunk of the season (26 matches). Despite this setback, and being eased back into first team action, Wilson still ranks second in our table for goals per 90 minutes of action.
Although Salomon Rondon has a poor goals to minutes ratio, the fact that he played 34 matches, and scored nine times for a very conservative West Brom side, can only be a positive. He's a nailed-on starter, but will need to work on his conversion rate during pre-season.
Charlie Austin only netted once last season, but with 18 goals for QPR during the 2014/15 Premier League season, he cannot be ignored. When the Englishman is firing, he's one of the most instinctive finishers in the country and an excellent differential if he manages to secure a starting berth.
Shots Attempted
| Player |
Shots Attempted
per 90mins |
Shot Accuracy |
| Carroll |
3.49 |
57% |
| Austin |
3.38 |
40% |
| Negredo |
3.00 |
38% |
| Gray |
2.90 |
51% |
| Long |
2.72 |
42% |
| Rondon |
2.50 |
39% |
| Wilson |
1.99 |
73% |
*Statistics provided by Squawka Matrix Comparison tool.
We haven't mentioned big Andy Carroll yet, but this is where he shines. His aerial capacity matched with a quality supply line, sees a handful of chances thrown his way every match. Although he attempts over three shots per 90 minutes on average, his accuracy is still decent. We think this is largely down to the majority of his attempts coming off his head and with Payet whipping balls in left, right and centre this should be the case once again.
Charlie Austin ranks relatively low in the majority of our charts, but one area in which he naturally excels is his ability to sniff around the six-yard box and get shots on goal. We do expect Claude Puel to roll-out a formation with room for two strikers - Shane Long will do the leg-work, allowing Austin to do what he does best and that is to be the the fox-in-the-box. Since 2013 the Englishman has scored 47 times in the Premier League and Championship, 87% of these goals came from inside the opposition's penalty box.
Alvaro Negredo is the most established player on show having played for a variety of clubs including Real Madrid, Sevilla and of course Manchester City in 2014/15. Despite this experience, the Spaniard has always been hit or miss in front of goal. For example, no player has missed more clear-cut goalscoring chances than Negredo (43) in Europe's top 5 leagues in the last 2 seasons.
In the accuracy department Callum Wilson wins it on paper, but having attempted fewer shots than all of his competition, we wouldn't read into this much. Considering he spent the concluding weeks of last season concentrating on his fitness, it's likely that his attempts will rise and in turn his accuracy will fall during the opening matches of the new season.
Creativity
| Player |
Chances Created
per 90mins |
Forward Passes
per 90mins |
| Negredo |
1.81 |
13.12 |
| Long |
1.36 |
12.24 |
| Carroll |
1.25 |
16.15 |
| Rondon |
0.98 |
10.83 |
| Gray |
0.90 |
7.48 |
| Wilson |
0.82 |
6.33 |
| Austin |
0.42 |
13.10 |
*Statistics provided by Squawka Matrix Comparison tool.
It came as a surprise that Alvaro Negredo created the most chances per game on average. The 30-year-old is often a head-down sort of player, focussed more on his individual output than those around him. Nevertheless, in 25 La Liga appearances last season the Spaniard contributed with two assists, both coming off the bench. He also ranked second for forward passes per 90 minutes, but with Middlesbrough's more conservative approach in contrast to Valencia, we expect this number to drop.
Shane Long provided four assists for Southampton during the 2015/16 campaign with an average of 1.36 chances created per 90 minutes. Southampton have gone from strength to strength in recent years and finished in 6th place last season, after coming 8th in 2013/14 and 7th in 2014/15. They will be expected to dominate possession in two of their first three fixtures, Watford and Sunderland at home, so Shane Long's link-up play will be essential in breaking down these defences.
Andy Carroll offers directness in that he played an average of 16 forward passes per 90 minutes last season - nine more than Burnley's Andre Gray. When he receives the ball his first thought is to shift it out wide and then get himself into ‘the mixer'. West Ham's reliance of crossing from wide positions suits Carroll down to the ground as he had more headed attempts per 90 minutes than anyone in the Premier League last season. Dimitri Payet's unrivalled delivery is another bonus of selecting Andy Carroll.
As we touched upon, Andre Gray lacks in the average forward passes stat. This is because Burnley are not a possession-based side. Sean Dyche will set up with the main priority being defensive stability, so don't expect Gray to get as many touches on the ball as the likes of Carroll, Long and Austin.
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