Fantasy Champions League Round of 16 continues on Wednesday 9th of March with Chelsea hosting Ligue 1 leaders PSG, whilst in Russia, Benfica visit Zenit St Petersburg.
Callum Read returns to provide daily fantasy football tips for the Mondogoal and FantasyBet contests.
The small slate means less variance amongst daily fantasy teams, which subsequently increases the importance of calling the clean sheets, goal scorers and differentials.
This article will be split into two sections. First is a Defensive Analysis - to gauge clean sheet potential, followed by an Attacking Analysis - to determine scoring potential. We will make use of the bookies odds in both occasions, to provide a fair comparison.
Defensive Analysis
The table below highlights which clubs are most likely to keep a clean sheet according to the bookies odds, converted into an implied chance percentage:
Team |
Implied Chance % |
Chelsea |
32.26% |
PSG |
33.33% |
Zenit |
40.00% |
Benfica |
25.00% |
Despite being the visitors to Stamford Bridge, it's
PSG who are the favourites to keep the clean sheet in a must win tie for Chelsea, an interesting stance from the bookies seeing at Chelsea trail 2-1 and must score to have any chance of progressing.
Zenit have the strongest chance of keeping a clean sheet according to the bookies, they only lost in Portugal in the dying embers of the game.
We also think
Zenit have the best chance of a clean sheet on Wednesday night, the Russian outfit have have shipped just two goals in their last five home games, whilst in the Group Stages of the competition the figure also stood at two goals in five home games.
Ezequiel Garay is a rock at the back for Zenit and is also incredibly dangerous from set pieces. The Argentinian actually signed for Zenit from Benfica and will be determined to keep a clean sheet against his former employers.
With Domenico Criscito suspended for this tie, it's a guessing game as to who will replace the Italian. Former Chelsea man
Yuri Zhirkov started at left back against Krasnodar on the weekend, originally a winger the Russian certainly still has some attacking bones in his body and will be looking to get forwards and create chances.
Zhirkov is an OOP player, and is listed as a midfielder on both FantasyBet and MondoGoal.
The Chelsea vs. PSG tie certainly makes for interesting reading, especially for Daily Fantasy Football players. The tie is currently 2-1 to PSG but crucially Chelsea have an away goal heading into the second leg. This means Chelsea will be attacking heavily to try and score goals, but here is still value in the PSG defence as single goal games could win you the slate on MondoGoal.
Serge Aurier is still unavailable for selection, meaning
Marquinhos is likely to start at right back for PSG, he picks up a ton of interceptions and tackles adding to his value on both FantasyBet and MondoGoal.
Making up an all Brazilian back line will be
Maxwell at left back who was very attacking in the first leg and could contribute in terms of goal and assists.
David Luiz returns to a ground where he is adored by the Stamford Bridge faithful, the former Chelsea man scored here on his last occasion.
Ezequiel Garay (Mondogoal: £8.9m, FantasyBet: £6.5m)
Yuri Zhirkov (Mondogoal: £6.4m, FantasyBet: £5.5m)
Marquinhos ((Mondogoal: £9.8m, FantasyBet: £6.0m)
Maxwell (Mondogoal: £10.9m, FantasyBet: £6.5m)
David Luiz (Mondogoal: £10.3m, FantasyBet: £6.5m)
Attacking Analysis
The table below highlights which clubs are most likely to score 2+ goals according to the bookies odds, converted into an implied chance percentage:
Team |
Implied Chance % |
Chelsea |
38.02% |
PSG |
38.02% |
Zenit |
47.62% |
Benfica |
28.57% |
The bookies again have
Zenit leading this odds charts, this time the goalscoring table.
Artyom Dzyuba is a natural born goalscorer, he's lethal in front of goal. In this years competition the Russian striker has scored six goals in seven games, whilst in the league his tally stand at eight goals in 19 games. The 27-year-old loves finding the back of the net and should be considered heavily.
His teammate
Hulk is a wonderfully gifted player who can turn provider as well as scoring goals. The Brazilian has scored eight times in the Russian Premier League and assisted an impressive 12 goals. His Champions League numbers stand at three goals and four assists. He also averages a staggering 4.5 shots per game in all competitions according to WhoScored.
PSG and
Chelsea have the exact same odds to score on Wednesday night, it's the former who we believe have the best chance. It's very, very rare they don't score and let be brutally honest Chelsea cannot keep a clean sheet. Can we really not mention
Zlatan Ibrahimovic? The big Swede was sent off the last time he was at Stamford Bridge and will be looking to put the past behind him with a strong performance.
Next is PSG's
Angel Di Maria who grabbed an assist in the first leg, that's one of his 11 in all competitions this season. He's also got 14 goals this season with three coming in the Champions League. On the other wing is likely to be
Lucas Moura, the young winger also looked very dangerous in the previous leg, his numbers aren't as good as Di Maria's but still make for good reading. Moura has nine goals and five assists in all competitions and will realish running at an underfire Chelsea back line.
Now, we understand you may need to fill your midfield with players from Chelsea and Benfica.
Willian is without doubt Chelsea's player of the season and has five goals in the Champions League this season and has a knack of scoring from free kicks in the competition.
For Benfica,
Nicolas Gaitan and
Pizzi are both dangerous, attacking wingers and both have the ability to register goals and assists against Zenit. It's Gaitan who has more shots per game in the Champions League registering 3.2 SPG to Pizzi's 0.7.
Jonas scored a late winner in the first leg, leaving his Champions League total at two goals in seven games. It's his record in the Portuguese league that really captures our eyes, in 25 games the Brazilian has scored 26 goals assisting eight. If you're going to consider a Benfica forward then he has to be considered.
Artyom Dzyuba (Mondogoal: £11.3m, FantasyBet: £7.5m)
Hulk (Mondogoal: £15.1m, FantasyBet: £11.0m)
Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Mondogoal: £21.1m, FantasyBet: £13.0m)
Lucas Moura (Mondogoal: £10.4m, FantasyBet: £13.0m)
Angel Di Maria (Mondogoal: £16.2m, FantasyBet: £10.5m)
Willian (Mondogoal: £11.4m, FantasyBet: £8.5m)
Nicolas Gaitan (Mondogoal: £11.5m, FantasyBet: £8.0m)
Pizzi (Mondogoal: £10.3m, FantasyBet: £5.5m)
Jonas (Mondogoal: £17.8m, FantasyBet: £8.0m)