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We have finally arrived at the last MLS contest (for fantasy) this year. This week gives us one final opportunity to field a fantasy squad for the second leg of the Conference Finals -- and we obviously won't see any fantasy action for the MLS Final. We sincerely hope we gave you a few tips that helped make you a bit of money this year. And we will obviously hope to double those efforts next year when the MLS starts anew.
But before we start looking too far ahead, here's your last bit of advice for MLS 2015...
Second leg scenarios
Both home teams were able to pull out a victory last week.
Columbus won their match 2-0 over NYRB, and they denied the all-important road goal to the visitors.
Portland beat Dallas to the tune of 3-1, but conceding that road goal gives Dallas a bit of hope going into this second leg.
Currently, it appears that all principal players are healthy.
Liam Ridgewell ($8.0, D) was an early sub due to injury in the first leg for Portland, but the injury appeared to be minor and his subbing off was more precautionary. Also, there are no suspensions going into this final day from any of the four teams, so you have a full roster of players to choose from in this contest.
Historically speaking, the first leg of these contests are conservative affairs, and the second leg is where all the good action takes place. The key thing to focus in on this week is going to be the attackers from the home sides (NYRB and Dallas). With both top seeds being down a pair of goals, they'll need to really open their game up to try to snatch back a lead while limiting the shots against them. But that open game that the home teams will have to adopt will leave a few holes for both road teams to at least send a decent chance or two on target to get that needed road goal.
Clean sheet chances
In all reality, there isn't a really great clean sheet chance on the cards for this final event. Granted, I said last week that Columbus had the worst chance to keep a clean sheet and that they couldn't be trusted -- and then they were the only team to keep the clean sheet. Sorry about that. But it isn't realistic to think that Columbus will travel to NY and post a consecutive shutout. NY at home are a dangerous team, and you have to expect that they'll get at least a single goal in relatively easy fashion.
NY will still have their hands full keeping Columbus at bay though. Kei Kamara is the co-leader for goals on the year in the MLS, and he knows how much that third goal for Columbus matters. So even if NY are factoring in the very decent chance that Kamara bags a single goal, that puts them in the position of having to win this game to the score of 4-1 if they want to make the Finals. Either way, NY will have some work to do on both ends to advance. Expect lots of scoring in that affair.
Dallas and Portland are a bit more muddled. Portland's offense has really come on strong lately, and they do look like they can score at will sometimes, and from any position -- both CB's scored a goal in their first leg against Dallas. But Portland have a tendency to play a slower game by default. As much as Portland fans are hoping to see another crooked number on the scoreboard for the Timbers, don't be surprised if Portland tend to try to turtle up and just ride out the Dallas attack. Portland will need a single goal to be confident of their victory, but I wouldn't think that they'll be pressing as hard as Dallas will in this game.
NY v Columbus Key Players
In the first leg of the series, many people found out that you simply can't afford all of the marquee players from these four teams at the same time.
Kei Kamara ($13.9),
Bradley Wright Phillips ($11.1) and
Sacha Kljestan ($11.6) will cost you a total of $36.6 if you decide to put them all on your team (and make no mistake, many people will). But that's going to leave you an average price of $7.92 for the rest of your position players. Maybe you could make that work if you're planning on starting the cheapest defense possible, but you're not going to have anything left for the big names in the Portland v Dallas matchup.
Ethan Finlay ($8.5, F) could solve your problem if you don't want to spend all of that money on Kamara in a road fixture. Finlay has been a bit hit or miss lately, but he'll save you money to invest in your mids. The bigger risk is
Mike Grella ($7.3, F) from NY. Grella has been the first sub off in seemingly every game this postseason, but he's a streaky player. With NY having to plan to come out aggressively this round, Grella could find himself on the receiving end of a few choice crosses. But let's be honest, Grella will either get you 2 points or 15 points. He's not a great earner outside of scoring goals.
Justin Meram ($9.4, M) is still a decent value for Columbus out of the midfield. His price tag is right on the border of 'support player' and 'key starter', but he's earned a shot on goal in each game of these playoffs and managed to snag himself a goal (the quickest in MLS history) in the first leg. Expect his last performance to boost his ownership percentage in nearly all leagues.
As far as it goes for defenses, I will admit that I was wrong last week. Columbus held true. But I will say that my prediction was correct...it was just a week off. I still hold no faith in the Columbus defense and I can't imagine how they shut out NY on the road with all of the attacking options that NY has. I do think that Columbus will get at least a goal in this match though (and probably advance to the Finals), so investing in
Luis Robles ($6.6, GK) is a marginal call for me. Robles is the cheapest starting keeper on the board, so perhaps he holds a bit of weight in that respect.
Dallas v Portland
This game will see the return of
Diego Valeri ($10.7, M) and
Rodney Wallace ($5.8,M) from suspension. It's really unclear how this will affect the status of newly minted dynamo
Dairon Asprilla ($4.2, F). Even though Asprilla nabbed the goal of the year (our opinion) for the playoffs, there is a chance he could come on as an impact sub later on in the match. Valeri and
Darlington Nagbe ($11.9, M) are nailed-on, but we'll have to wait to see the starting grid prior to locking in the rest of our Portland selections.
For Dallas,
Mauro Diaz ($13.3, M) will have to lead the attack if Dallas expects to overcome the goal deficit. Interestingly enough, Diaz hasn't really been as strong at home as he's been on the road during these playoffs -- and he's only put two shots on goal to this point in the postseason. But in this do-or-die scenario, Diaz is probably a safe #1 pick for most teams looking to capitalize on the playing conditions.
David Texeira ($4.5, F) may be the best priced deal on the board that nobody is talking about for Dallas. Texeira has been the starter up front for Dallas for a while, and he managed to get Dallas' single goal in the last match. The problem with Texeira, like Mike Grella, is that he's hit or miss. His points come from scoring only, not the other statistical categories. But if you can't afford
Fabian Castillo ($9.2, F), Texeira offers a value price to free up funds elsewhere. His price is worth the risk on that account.
In the back, I think that
Jesse Gonzalez ($7.3, GK) has the best chance at a shutout, but
Adam Kwarasey ($7.2, GK) could be good for a one-goal game if Portland plays their game. The defense tends to skew expensive on the Dallas side, so you could try to catch lightning in a bottle twice and put in Liam Ridgewell or
Nat Borchers ($8.0) for Portland. Both tend to get forward on the set pieces.
Final farewell
Good luck on Sunday everybody. It's been a blast writing this weekly column. We're looking at delving into some Mexican League advice here in the near future, so stay tuned for that.
