Daily Fantasy Football Tips For Premier League Gameweek 4.
jamieFPL returns with his Daily Fantasy Football tips for Premier League Gameweek 4. This week looking at defensive vulnerabilities and entry strategy.
Last week marked a symbolic moment within Fantasy Premier League as both Sergio Aguero and Zlatan Ibrahimovic failed to return more than two points each. Everything felt a bit unfamiliar as the final scores came in, but luckily the balance was restored when Scott Dann headed home a last minute winner. Some things never change… at least completely.
I've been on a bit of a roll this season on Bet4theBest and those who read my article last week will remember that I stated I'd be entering a £5 team that fades (doesn't own) both Ibrahimovic and Aguero. This team placed second, saving my game week and providing my biggest individual return of the season with £107.97.
In an aim to be as transparent with my readers as possible, I've decided to share my bet history with you each week. Below you can see every bet I've placed so far and all of my winnings, losses and profits. Each week I try and keep my entry fees around the £30 mark and I'll discuss my entry strategy for Gameweek 4 later in the article.
Bet4theBest 2016/17 Bet History:
| ENTRY FEES |
RETURNS |
PROFIT |
| - £85.00 |
+ £401.69 |
+ £316.69 |
A statistical analysis of defensive vulnerabilities ahead of Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 4:
| Team |
Big Chances Conceded |
Chances Conceded (Centre) |
Chances Conceded (Left) |
Chances Conceded (Right) |
Goals Conceded |
| WAT |
8 |
13 |
10 |
9 |
6 |
| STO |
7 |
14 |
10 |
10 |
6 |
| SUN |
3 |
14 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
| BOU |
9 |
15 |
9 |
12 |
5 |
West Brom to capitalise on Bournemouth's inability to defend aerially in Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 4.
Bournemouth are yet to find a win this season and have already conceded five goals, all of which have come from open play. This week they face West Brom, who despite not being known for scoring goals, seem to be at a statistical advantage this week.
The Cherries have yet to show dominance in matches this season, they've failed to prevent the opposition creating big chances and have been second to most aerial duels. They've dropped points from their last two matches after conceding late headed goals (GW2: Antonio 85', GW3: Dann 90+3').
Now don't get me wrong, I'm aware it's West Brom we're talking about here and this fixture could easily end up like the Middlesbrough match last game week. However, the team that has scored two goals this season (both of which were headers from set-pieces) are facing up against the team that keeps conceding headed goals.
Salomon Rondon has had the most headed attempts on goal in the league so far this season (7, tied with Llorente) so flags up as the obvious pick. Gareth McAuley & Jonny Evans both go up for corners and set-pieces, making them strong defensive picks. McAuley has already found the net this season after converting Craig Gardner's free kick against Everton.
West Ham to dominate possession against Watford and win free-kicks in dangerous areas this Gameweek.
Watford find themselves in the bottom three as we enter September and currently have the joint most leakiest defence in the league (tied with Stoke and Liverpool) having already conceded six. This week they travel to the London (Olympic) Stadium to take on West Ham.
Walter Mazzarri was served a baptism of fire when the 2016/17 fixture list was released with a tough opening five fixtures. Their league position reflects this tough run and after three weeks a lack of confidence is starting to show in their football.
The Hornets have failed to keep possession of the ball (GW1: 36%, GW2: 38% and 45%) and as a result have been conceding fouls in dangerous areas. West Ham's fast attacking wing play and skilful players could exploit this once again.
Dimitri Payet has slipped under the radar a little considering his excellent performances last season and during the Euros. He's set to make his full return this week and could return with a bang. A free kick goal is certainly what the statistics are suggesting.
After a short-lived career at right back (thankfully), Mikail Antonio has returned to the right wing and scored two in two. Chairman David Sullivan even found it necessary to come out and reassure us that he will now continue as a winger. Elsewhere, Manuel Lanzini has returned from injury and looks a great differential pick.
Tottenham to create numerous chances within Stoke's penalty area in FPL Gameweek 4.
Stoke City have also conceded an average of two goals per game so far this season and will have a tough task improving that record when they host Tottenham this weekend. So far this season Stoke have failed to prevent their opposition shooting from range and struggled with defending against skilful players.
Spurs have narrowly favoured attacking down the flanks so far this season, but have tending to cut in and shoot rather than cross. 64% of their shots have come from the middle of the park, an area where Stoke have conceded the majority of theirs (59%).
These statistics indicate strong potential for points from one of Tottenham's attacking midfield trio. Erik Lamela has shown this season that he's capable of cutting in and finding the net, whilst Dele Alli is no stranger to attacking through the middle and shooting from range.
Stoke have also conceded an alarming percentage of shots conceded from inside their 6 yards box (11%) and 18 yards box (47%). This makes Gameweek 4 look the perfect opportunity for Harry Kane to put his August curse behind him, or for Vincent Janssen to make his mark on the Premier League.
Everton to test Sunderland from range and outwit their opponents with skilful play in Gameweek 4.
David Moyes' season hasn't got off the the best start and after three games has only managed a singular point. Sunderland are yet to keep a clean sheet and already picked the ball out of their net on five occasions.
The Black Cats have struggled to defend against skilful players and although doing a good job at keeping attackers from shooting inside the box, have let their opposition strike from distance. 70% of their shots conceded this season have come from outside the box.
This week Moyes welcomes his former club Everton to the Stadium of Light who have really hit the ground running this season. The Toffees will look to dominate possession in this fixture and attack primarily down the wings.
Ross Barkley is the standout pick from this fixture, he's not shy of the a long shot and has also been shooting from a number of free kicks. Yannick Bolasie looks like a good differential options, he's very skillful and can shoot with both feet. Elsewhere, Romelu Lukaku will be spearheading the attack following his brace for Belgium.
My Entry Strategy For Gameweek 4 on Bet4theBest:
The early kick off this game week is the Manchester derby, several entries come in between 2-3pm which means there's differentials to be hand within this match. Back in GW2 I captained Ibrahimovic in the early kick off which paid off and I think i'll be doing the same this week with either a £5 or £10 team. There too much attacking potential there to miss it out!
The later matches contain Liverpool vs. Leicester, Swansea vs. Chelsea and Sunderland vs. Everton. I can see Liverpool, Leicester, Chelsea and Everton all scoring 2 or more goals so if the highest score come 5pm is around the 50 mark, I'll no doubt get a late-entry team in. The late entry tactic worked for me in GW1 and you can read about it here.
Otherwise, I think I'm going to enter my strongest team into the £20 league despite last week's poor performance. If I can place in the top 5 I could really bolster my bankroll. Whether I'll enter this with players from the Manchester derby or without, I'm yet to decide.
Thanks for reading this week's article. I'm always happy to discuss Bet4theBest in the comments to this article or on Twitter. Look out for me in the leaderboards, jamieFPL.
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