Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League differential article. This week Callum Read looks at three differential options who all gave a Double Gameweek in Gameweek 34 and also don't blank in Gameweek 35.
This article will compare the last four Premier League performances of Danny Welbeck, Divock Origi and Aleksandar Mitrovic.
We are going to look at recent FPL points, fixture difficulty, goal scoring form and creativity to reach a verdict on which striker you should consider for the next two Gameweeks.
Recent Form:
| # |
Player |
Mins |
Pts |
| 1 |
Mitrovic |
209 |
19 |
| 2 |
Origi |
154 |
18 |
| 3 |
Welbeck |
222 |
15 |
It's Mitrovic who has racked up the most FPL points over the last 3 Gameweeks, despite currently sitting in 19th position Rafa Benitez will be determined to keep Newcastle in the Premier League, he's taken a liking to the Serbian striker since his arrival in March.
Despite having the least amount of minutes out of the trio Origi places 2nd in the FPL points, just one behind Mitrovic. A sign that his minutes to points ratio is strong. He was started ahead of Daniel Sturridge in Liverpool's Europa League clash with Dortmund though, a sign his minutes may well be reduced this weekend.
Danny Welbeck places last on this list and has been struggling to find some form since his return from injury, Wenger seems to be persisting with the English striker though favouring him over Oliver Giroud in recent weeks.
Opposition Difficulty:
As all three players have both a DGW and a fixture in GW35 the numbers will be a total of the three fixtures and all stats are taken from their oppositions last four games. Caps = Home, lowercase = Away, BCC = Big Chances Conceded.
| # |
Player |
Vs. |
BCC |
GC |
| 1 |
Mitrovic |
SWA, MCY, Liv |
17 |
13 |
| 2 |
Origi |
Bou, EVE, NEW |
13 |
22 |
| 3 |
Welbeck |
CRY, WBA, Sun |
18 |
10 |
Newcastle United look set to have a difficult set of fixtures, but they will take solace in the fact their opponents are giving up big chances, if Mitrovic is on top of his game he could punish a lazy defence.
Liverpool face three defences that have been conceding goals for fun and the Red side of Merseyside certainly have goalscoring talent in their ranks, finding the net 12 times in their last five games.
Despite having what on paper would seem three favourable fixtures, Arsenal's oppositions have conceded a relatively low number of goals, but it's their big chances conceded which catches our eye, with 18 being the highest tally out of all three players. Arsenal have scored 12 goals in their last five games so are certainly in goalscoring form.
Goalscoring Form:
| # |
Player |
BC |
SoT |
GS |
| 1 |
Mitrovic |
2 |
6 |
3 |
| 2 |
Origi |
3 |
4 |
2 |
| 3 |
Welbeck |
2 |
3 |
1 |
Mitrovic leads the table in terms of goals scored having grabbed three goals in his last four matches, remarkable two of his goals came in a 29 minute substitute appearance against Norwich.
Origi's places second in the table, but his two goals came last weekend in Liverpool's 4-1 win over Stoke City, the Belgian striker also found the back of the net in Liverpool's incredible Europa League win over Dortmund.
It's Welbeck who places last on the table having only scored one goal in his last four fixtures with his latest goal coming against Everton in GW31. He's also registered the lowest amount of shots on target.
The Verdict:
From the analysis we have conducted in this article our decision is swaying towards Origi of Liverpool, he's the cheapest of the three players coming in at just £5.4m and is carrying some form after his goals against Stoke and Dortmund.
Welbeck has the "easiest" fixtures on paper and you'd expect him to score at least one in Gameweek 34, but at £7.4m his form hasn't justified his price tag.
Finally Mitrovic, he's the biggest gamble out of the aforementioned players as Newcastle are battling relegation and really don't look like picking up a lot of form. If you're not that bothered about your overall rank and want a real gamble then he's your man.
