Fantasy Premier League Differential Tips For Gameweek 29
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Welcome back to another article highlighting Fantasy Premier League Differential Tips for Gameweek 29. Callum Read highlights some low ownership (<5%) midfielders who all impressed during Gameweek 28.Nathan Redmond (£5.0m), Gylfi Sigurdsson (£7.1m) and Aaron Lennon (£5.6) all put in strong performances for their respective sides during Gameweek 28, but are any of them worth investing your money in?
Creativity in last four Gameweeks:
The table below displays the goals, assists, chances created and shots from each player during last four Gameweeks, it enables us to view how much of an attacking threat each player possess.
Player
Goals
Assists
Chances Created
Shots
Redmond
1
0
4
7
Sigurdsson
1
1
6
12
Lennon
3
1
7
3
Nathan Redmond's goal against Chelsea is his only one in the last four games, but to his credit the Norwich City winger did look very lively against a resurgent Chelsea side and caused their back line a lot of problems in the second half of Tuesday night's game.
The worrying statistic about Redmond's selection is Norwich's lack of goals. Alex Neil's side have only scored three goals in their last four games, making Redmond a questionable FPL selection.
Last seasons FPL darling Gylfi Sigurdsson has come into some decent form and put in some impressive performances recently - despite starting on the bench against Arsenal, he came on to provide the winning assist from a delightful free kick. That's something that puts Sigurdsson ahead of both Redmond and Lennon, he is lethal from dead ball situations. He's also had the most shots in his last four games with 12, a few of which have been from free kicks.Last but not least is Aaron Lennon who has chipped in with his fair share of goals recently, with three in his last four games. Roberto Martinez has placed his faith in the English winger and has been duly repaid. Despite a low amount of shots, Lennon has made up with a 100% shots to goal ratio.
He has also created seven chances, and with Romelu Lukaku returning to goal scoring form against Aston Villa, we could see the pair form a deadly link. Lennon might be getting a call from Hodgson.
Who Faces The Worst Defence in Gameweek 29?
The table below displays the three teams each player will face during Gameweek 29. It highlights the opposing team's number of goals conceded (GC) and big chances conceded (BCC) per game. The data taken from last four Premier League matches.
Team
Vs.
Goals Conceded
Big Chances Conceded
Norwich
Swansea (A)
5
10
Swansea
Norwich (H)
7
5
Everton
West Ham (H)
3
5
The table shows that Swansea have the most favourable fixture when they welcome Norwich to the Liberty Stadium, the Canaries seven goals conceded is the highest of the three teams. There is more good news for potential Sigurdsson owners, Norwich have conceded 31 goals away from home - a statistic only beaten by Sunderland and Newcastle. If the trend is to continue Siggy could return a strong points tally.The next weakest defence comes in the shape of Swansea, who have shipped five goals in their last four games, but more notably conceded 10 big chances. Now despite getting an impressive win over Arsenal they really should have lost the game with the Gunners missing a number of chances. If this carries over into the Norwich game, Redmond and Norwich City will need to take of advantage of these defensive frailties.Finally, Everton, who face an inform West Ham side that have kept back-to-back clean sheets, most notably against Tottenham. However, the Hammers have given up five big chances and Everton do tend to score goals in front of their home fans (27 this season). West Ham's defensive form is certainly something that raises question marks over Lennon's selection going into Gameweek 29.
Player Odds To Score In Gameweek 29:
The table below displays the top three players per position, based on the bookies odds to score anytime in Gameweek 29. The odds have been converted to an implied chance percentage.
Player
Implied Chance
Redmond
20.83%
Sigurdsson
34.48%
Lennon
28.57%
The bookies odds are suggesting that Gylfi Sigurdsson has the best chance of scoring in Gameweek 29 and who can blame them as Swansea host a Norwich side that are always prone to mistakes.
The Verdict:
Gylfi Sigurdsson gets the vote of confidence from us, he not only provides a short term option, but a long term one as well, with fixtures against Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Newcastle on the horizon. Swansea host a Norwich side that constantly look like they'll concede, they also give away plenty of fouls, 20 alone in their last game against Chelsea. This could see the Swansea man find the back of the net from a dead ball situation.Aaron Lennon faces both Arsenal and Manchester United soon and also has a blank gameweek coming up, something Sigurdsson doesn't have. If you want to take a risk and go against the grain then Lennon is your man, he's cheap, coming in at 5.6m and is a favourite of Martinez.Despite scoring against Chelsea, we'd still suggest avoiding Nathan Redmond for now, as he faces Manchester City away from home in Gameweek 30 and will most likely score lowly in that game. He is definitely one to keep an eye on with Norwich facing Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Sunderland in consecutive fixtures starting in Gameweek 31, for now though – it's a no.
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