Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League Captain Tips for Gameweek 25 article. This week jamieFPL returns to analyse the best candidates for your captain's armband.
Gameweek 24 was a successful week tipping captains, with five of our six choices returning either a goal or assist. Sergio Aguero (67%) stormed our captaincy poll, with the nearest competitors being Harry Kane (10%) and Romelu Lukaku (10%).
Here's a look at last week's tips: Aguero (5), Kane (13), Valencia (5), Lukaku (1), Vardy (13) and Afobe (8).
Gameweek 25 has a number of good candidates for the armband. Whilst we recommend you approach our high-risk candidates with caution on FPL, we believe they could be worth their weight in gold in daily fantasy football contests such as FantasyBet.
The biggest question that most FPL managers will be facing this weekend is whether to captain Sergio Aguero vs. Leicester (H) or Harry Kane vs. Watford (H).
The table below displays goal threat vs creativity for both players. The data is taken from both players last three Premier League matches.
| Statistic |
Aguero |
Kane |
| Anytime GS Odds |
1.75 |
1.95 |
| PPG |
11 |
9.3 |
| Goals |
5 |
4 |
| Shots on Target |
7 |
11 |
| Big Chances |
4 |
6 |
| Assists |
1 |
0 |
| Chances Created |
3 |
2 |
From looking at the table we can clearly see that Sergio Aguero has been more clinical than Harry Kane over the last three weeks. Although Harry Kane has tallied up more on shots on target, big chances and chances created; Sergio Aguero still has more goals and assists.
This reflects in the bookies odds that imply Sergio Aguero (57.14%) has a greater chance of finding the net this weekend than Harry Kane (51.28%).
It's also important to consider their oppositions recent defensive form. The table below displays how well Leicester (vs. Aguero) and Watford (vs. Kane) have been performing over the last three weeks.
| Statistic |
LEI |
WAT |
| Clean Sheets |
2 |
1 |
| Goals Conc. |
1 |
2 |
| Big Chances Conc. |
1 |
3 |
Both Leicester and Watford have been close to perfect defensively over the last three game weeks. The Foxes slightly edge the better form, indicating that Aguero has a tougher fixture than Kane but there's not much in it at all.
As a team, Tottenham have scored 10 goals in their last three matches in comparison to Manchester City's seven goals, displaying that Spurs have the better attacking form with an average of 3.3 goals per game in comparison to City's 2.3 goals per game.
The Verdict
As always, your captaincy decision should be based on your own relative goals; whether that's generally increasing your rank or closing in on a mini-league rival. In Gameweek 25 we expect Sergio Aguero to be the safe option and therefore the most widely selected captain in FPL.
However, despite his recent form not being quite as incredible as Sergio Aguero's - although it's still be top notch - we're giving the armband to
Harry Kane this weekend based on fixture and team attacking form. Do us proud ‘Arry!
If you're looking to pull yourself out of the depths of your mini-league, win a daily fantasy football contest or think both Watford and Leicester are going to remain strong at the back; then you may want to opt for a differential captain choice.
WARNING: A differential choice is ONLY a good choice if it outscores the high ownership players - so proceed with caution.
We've plotted five potential differential choices onto a bubble graph that displays the player's goal threat vs creativity. All data is taken from the player's last three Premier League matches and the bubble size is determined by the players PPG (also last three).
At a glance we can immediately see the impact that
Christian Eriksen has had for Spurs in both threat and creativity. With an average of six chances created from his last three, it's a surprise that he only has two assists to show for it.
Elsewhere,
Aleksander Mitrovic is a surprise addition with an average of 2.3 shots on target from Newcastle's last three, despite only playing 216 minutes. This is the joint (Aguero) second highest amount with only Harry Kane (3.6) averaging more.
Mesut Ozil looks unlucky to have nothing to show for his average of 3.6 chances created in his last three,
Benik Afobe has been clinical with three goals to show from his four shots, whilst
Roberto Firmino has been balanced in both goal threat and creativity.
Again, it's important to consider their oppositions recent defensive form. The table below displays how well Watford (vs. Eriksen), Sunderland (vs. Firmino), Arsenal (vs. Afobe), Bournemouth (vs. Ozil) and West Brom (vs. Mitrovic) have been performing over the last three weeks.
| Vs. |
CS |
BCC |
GC |
| WAT |
1 |
3 |
2 |
| SUN |
0 |
4 |
6 |
| ARS |
2 |
3 |
1 |
| bou |
1 |
4 |
2 |
| WBA |
1 |
3 |
4 |
CS: Clean Sheets
BCC: Big Chances Conceded
GC: Goals Conceded
HOME / away
The Verdict
Our differential captain for Gameweek 25 goes to
Roberto Firmino. The Brazilian midfielder has been used as a striker in recent game weeks and in his last three home matches averaged 7.6 points per game. This week he faces Sunderland who haven't kept a clean sheet in their last three and have conceded an average of 3.3 goals in their last three away matches.
Christian Eriksen is in undeniable form, but based on the fixture difficulty we mentioned previously we expect their to be minimal goals, therefore Kane is the safe bet in that fixture.
If he starts this weekend,
Aleksander Mitrovic could be a huge differential against West Brom.
Mesut Ozil could reap the benefits if Arsenal start firing again, whilst
Benik Afobe will look to keep up his clinical goalscoring record against Arsenal.
Thanks for reading our Captain Tips for Gameweek 25. Why not check out our Differential Tips and Clean Sheet Advice?
