Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League Captain Tips for Gameweek 27 article. This week
jamieFPL returns to analyse the best candidates for your captain's armband.
Last Gameweek hosted some successful tips with Diego Costa (9) and Roberto Firmino (6) returning decent points compared to other high ownership players in their positions.
Gameweek 27 has been stripped of two fixtures and therefore Man City, Liverpool, Everton & Newcastle all don't feature. With no Sergio Aguero, Roberto Firmino or Romelu Lukaku to choose from, we turn to another set of strikers for the armband.
The big captaincy question for Gameweek 27 is who to captain out of Jamie Vardy (vs. NOR), Diego Costa (vs. sou) and Harry Kane (vs. SWA). So let's tackle that first by looking at their form, fixture and odds for the weekend.
Please note that all statistics used in this article (unless mentioned otherwise) are based on the player's last FOUR Premier League matches. We feel this is a good timeframe to give an equal balance of form.
Gameweek 27 Captain Tips: Vardy Vs. Costa Vs. Kane.
The table below compares each striker's goalscoring threat based on goals scored, shots on target and big chances:
| Player |
GS |
SoT |
BC |
| Vardy |
4 |
8 |
6 |
| Kane |
4 |
8 |
6 |
| Costa |
3 |
6 |
3 |
There's not much to separate the three strikers from their last four matches in the Premier League. Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane have had the exact same attacking output, averaging at a goal per game. Meanwhile, Diego Costa trails one goal behind but his 100% conversion rate of big chances shouldn't go unnoticed.
Let's see how well this translates to FPL points. The following table displays total points, points per game and bonus points:
| Player |
P |
PPG |
BP |
| Vardy |
29 |
7.25 |
5 |
| Kane |
26 |
6.50 |
3 |
| Costa |
25 |
6.25 |
4 |
Diego Costa's assist that didn't feature in the goalscoring threat table pulls him just one point behind Harry Kane on total points. Harry Kane's yellow card (-1) against Crystal Palace and failure to secure bonus points in three of his last four matches means he's averages 0.75 less points per game than Jamie Vardy.
At this stage, Jamie Vardy narrowly leads the way thanks to a few of bonus points despite having the exact same attacking threat as Harry Kane.
The table below shows their opposition's defensive form based on goals conceded, big chances conceded and clean sheets:
| Team |
GC |
BCC |
CS |
| Norwich |
12 |
8 |
0 |
| Swansea |
4 |
9 |
0 |
| Southampton |
0 |
7 |
4 |
Jamie Vardy will be relishing the opportunity to take on the league's leakiest defence this weekend when Norwich travel to the King Power. The Canaries have conceded on average three goals per game from their last four.
Harry Kane also faces a side who have failed to keep a clean sheet and somehow conceded more big chances than Norwich. However, Swansea have Lukasz Fabianski to thank as they've only conceded an average of a goal per game.
Diego Costa, once again trails the bunch after drawing the short straw and having to face the defensive fortress that is Southampton, away from home. Since returning from injury, Fraser Forster has now kept six clean sheets on the bounce including two on the road against Man United and Arsenal.
Last but not least, let's take a look at who the bookies favourite is to score anytime during Gameweek 27. We've taken the odds and converted them to an implied chance percentage:
| Player |
IC% |
| Kane |
51.28% |
| Vardy |
50.00% |
| Costa |
38.17% |
The bookies obviously know something that we don't ahead of Gameweek 27 as they imply that Harry Kane has a - albeit small - 1.28% higher chance of finding the net than Jamie Vardy.
There has been little to separate the two in recent weeks, but based on Leicester's favourable fixture at home to Norwich, we're giving the armband to Jamie Vardy.
Here are some statistics that back up our decision:
• Jamie Vardy has won more penalties in the Premier League this season alone (6) than all of the other 19 Premier League teams.
• The Canaries have gone 13 Premier League games on the road without a clean sheet.
• The Foxes have scored more goals on counter attacks (5) than any other Premier League team this season.
Thanks for reading our Captain Tips for Gameweek 27. Why not check out our Differential Tips and Clean Sheet Advice?
