Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League Captain Tips for Gameweek 26 article. This week
jamieFPL returns to analyse the best candidates for your captain's armband.
Last Gameweek hosted some successful differential tips with Roberto Firmino (13), Mesut Ozil (10) and Aleksandar Mitrovic (7) outscoring Harry Kane (2) and Sergio Aguero (6), as we predicted.
Gameweek 26 could be a great week to gain some ground on your rivals as there is no safe captaincy option with Man City hosting Tottenham and Arsenal hosting Leicester. Therefore, this week we've decided to compare four forwards and midfielders who we think might be on your radar based on ownership, form and fixtures.
Please note that all statistics (unless mentioned otherwise) are based on the player's last FOUR Premier League matches. We feel this is a good timeframe to give an equal balance of form, as it includes two home and away matches.
WHICH FORWARD TO CAPTAIN IN GAMEWEEK 26:
Our four forwards for GW26 are Diego Costa (vs. NEW), Romelu Lukaku (vs. WBA), Harry Kane (vs. mci) and Sergio Aguero (vs. TOT). The table below displays each player's total number of big chances and goals:
Bubble size: PPG (Last 4)
Bubble colour: Opposition defensive form
We used the Opposition Defensive Form table from our Goalscorer Tips article to determine the difficulty. We've embedded the relevant teams from the table below:
| Team |
Vs. |
Avg. GC |
Avg. BCC |
| CHE |
new |
2 |
2.6 |
| EVE |
wba |
1.6 |
2.3 |
| tot |
MCI |
1.2 |
1.7 |
| MCI |
tot |
0.5 |
0.7 |
Avg. GC: Opposition Average Goals Conceded (Last 4)
Avg. BCC: Opposition Average Big Chances Conceded (Last 4)
HOME / away
What can we take from the above?
Sergio Aguero has been the most clinical with six goals from six big chances, which subsequently gives him the highest PPG with an average of 7.6pts. However, out of the four, he comes up against the toughest defence when Tottenham visit the Etihad on Sunday. Spurs have the third best defence in the league (last 4 fixtures), having only conceded two goals and three big chances over this period.
Harry Kane will be looking to have more of an impact in Gameweek 26 after failing to find the scoresheet against Watford. Tottenham currently boast the most in-form attack whilst also being the most in-form team on the road, which explains why Kane has been presented with more big chances than any other player in the league (7) since Gameweek 22. City have been inconsistent in defence and last week suffered a 3-1 humiliation from Leicester City.
The greenest of the green bubbles this week goes to
Diego Costa who takes on Newcastle at Stamford Bridge. This week he made our FPL Headlines after scoring his sixth goal in eight games under new boss Guus Hiddink. The graph suggests Costa converts every 1.6 big chance and he will look to improve that against the league's third most inviting defence (2 big chances conceded per game).
Romelu Lukaku pales into insignificance on this week's table which is expected after ending his four game goalscoring drought last weekend. This weekend Everton host West Brom who have shown signs of improvement at the back in recent weeks, but still concede an average of 1.6 goals per game.
Before making our verdict, let's have a look who the bookies think is most likely to find the net in Gameweek 26:
| Player |
Odds |
Implied Chance |
| Costa |
1.85 |
54.05% |
| Aguero |
2.00 |
50.00% |
| Lukaku |
2.05 |
48.78% |
| Kane |
2.60 |
38.46% |
The Verdict:
This week, nobody knows which forward to captain because there's no clear cut favourite. As a result, most people will be sticking with Aguero as they rightly assume that's what most of their competitors will be doing.
If you're looking for the safe option, captain Sergio Aguero. Presented with a chance he takes it, as displayed by his six goals in four matches.
However, if you own him already, captain Diego Costa. This week is a good week to gamble and no doubt a few of your rivals are going to act on that. If you're looking to earn ground on a rival who doesn't own him, now is your perfect chance. He'll be presented with a number of chances against Newcastle, whilst Aguero could have problems against in-form Spurs and their solid defence.
Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane look a bit risky but there's enough underlying statistics to indicate each of them as viable options. Lukaku coincides with the points raised above regarding Diego Costa, however his previous goal drought and West Brom's more recent defensive displays doesn't pitch his goal potential any higher than Aguero's. The same for Harry Kane, who will unlikely outscore Aguero on his home soil.
WHICH MIDFIELDER TO CAPTAIN IN GAMEWEEK 26:
Our four midfielders for GW26 are Roberto Firmino (vs. avl), Gylfi Sigurdsson (vs. SOU), Dele Alli (vs. mci) and Dimitri Payet (vs. nor). The table below displays each player's goal involvement % and total number of chances created:
Bubble size: PPG (Last 4)
Bubble colour: Opposition defensive difficulty
Once again we used the Opposition Defensive Form table from our Goalscorer Tips article to determine the difficulty. We've embedded the relevant teams from the table below:
| Team |
Vs. |
Avg. GC |
Avg. BCC |
| whu |
NOR |
4.3 |
3.6 |
| tot |
MCI |
1.2 |
1.7 |
| liv |
AVL |
0.7 |
1.7 |
| SWA |
sou |
0 |
1.2 |
Avg. GC: Opposition Average Goals Conceded (Last 4)
Avg. BCC: Opposition Average Big Chances Conceded (Last 4)
HOME / away
What can we take from the above?
Roberto Firmino leads the arch of in-form midfielders this weekend having scored three goals, assisted two and created 11 big chances. What stands out most is that he's had direct involvement in 70% of Liverpool's goals, which could be put down to his current out of position role up top. No doubt many of you are surprised at his bubble colour considering he's against Aston Villa, but based on recent form they've been better than Man City conceding 0.7 goals a game on average compared to City's 1.2.
Gylfi Sigurdsson has been in top form since the arrival of new boss Francesco Guidolin, scoring in five of his last six matches. However, this weekend is where the real challenge presents itself. Opposition Southampton haven't conceded since the return of Fraser Forster (five matches) and have invited just 1.2 big chances per game.
Dele Alli and Harry Kane could be the Mahrez and Vardy of Gameweek 26 as they look to take advantage of Man City following their defeat to Leicester. Tottenham currently have the best away form in the league and this can be put largely down to Alli's performances on the road; where he's scored three and assisted two in his last three outings.
If there's one thing the graph does excellently, it's showing just how unlucky
Dimitri Payet has been in recent weeks. Despite conjuring up 15 big chances, his goal involvement remains at a non-existant 0% but owners have kept patience due to his favourable fixtures. This week he visits the worst defence in the league, Norwich, who have conceded an average of 4.3 goals per game.
Before making our verdict, let's have a look who the bookies think is most likely anytime goalscorer in Gameweek 26:
| Player |
Odds |
Implied Chance |
| Firmino |
2.60 |
38.46% |
| Alli |
3.40 |
29.41% |
| Payet |
3.60 |
27.78% |
| Sigurdsson |
3.80 |
26.32% |
The Verdict:
The bookies odds back up what the graph already told us;
Roberto Firmino should be considered as a strong option for your armband if you own him. Aston Villa have been resolute in defence lately but we expect a Liverpool side that performs better on the road to break them down. Firmino looks set to regain his spot leading the line and based on current form, if Liverpool find the net there's 70% chance he will be involved.
Dele Alli stakes a claim based on his recent away form that's seen him score and assist in both of his last two matches on the road. In a game where goals could be scarce, we would opt for teammate Harry Kane over Alli, despite them both displaying equal potential for this fixture.
Dimitri Payet has the fixture and the underlying stats but it's hard to trust him based on his recent form. Norwich have been conceding for fun in recent weeks and there's no doubt that Payet will be causing problems and creating a multitude of chances. However, if he failed to impact West Ham's recent matches against Aston Villa and Newcastle, who's to say Gameweek 26 won't follow in familiar fashion?
Gylfi Sigurdsson faces a defence that hasn't conceded in five matches - keep the armband away! Despite his excellent recent form, it's hard to recommend captaining any player that faces such a strong, in-form defence. Maybe next time, Gylfi.
Thanks for reading our Captain Tips for Gameweek 26. Why not check out our Differential Tips and Clean Sheet Advice?
