This feature comes from the latest new addition to the @Fplbet team -
FPLBraveheart.
Braveheart is an FPL obsessive from Scotland (I guess the name gives it away!) He's rated as one of the top 600 #FPL managers of all-time and has finished in the top 1% for the last six seasons. Here Braveheart answers a question on a lot of bosses minds right now. Is it time to ditch Diogo Jota and Joshua King?
A lot of FPL managers will be scratching their heads as to why two players who promised so much before the season started, have failed to deliver. Has their lack of returns been due to bad luck, an inability to adapt (in Jota's case), or poor performances?
This post will look at both Jota and King to see whether you should be keeping these players and, if not, who you should be transferring into your teams this week.
All stats are from whoscored.com and Fantasy Football Fix. The key underlying stats for me when deciding whether to keep or buy a player is their shot rate (per game); their key passing rate (per game); and expected goals (xG), assists (xA) and clean sheets xCS).
What to do with Jota?
I hope he starts putting in performances similar to those from his Championship days and, if he does, I'll look to get Jota back.
But, for now, it is time to ditch Jota.It is clear from looking at Jota's underlying stats that he has grossly underperformed in the first two matches this season. He is a talented and promising player; however at this time he is not doing enough to justify his place in our teams. With Man City next it is unlikely that he will return anything this week. Many managers have already taken the decision to drop him and I think I will be doing the same. He dropped £0.1m in value on 20 August; a drop which could pose problems for bosses who like me, may have no cash in the bank.
Who to buy in his place? I wanted to offer options depending on your strategy: an upgrade (a player who is around £1m more expensive, excluding the premium options); a sideways move (a player who is +/-£0.2m from Jota's price); and a downgrade.
The upgrade (+1m)
The sideways move (+/-£0.2m)Arsenal have yet to win this season but that is about to change. Their fixtures have taken a lovely turn and they have an excellent average fixture difficulty over the next four matches. Mkhi played superbly against Chelsea and looks like he will be the creative force behind Arsenal during their upcoming run. Arsenal's average fixture difficulty over the next four matches is 2.25. Mkhi will play well if keeping up these numbers.
The Sideways Move (+/- 0.2m)
There are some doubts in the FPL community as to whether Pedro will nail down a starting berth. However, he has played every minute in the season so far and has put up some excellent numbers. I think while Pedro is performing in this way, he will start. If looking for a lateral move away from Jota, I'd strongly consider Pedro. Chelsea have a good looking run in the next four fixtures. Their average difficulty is 2.75. It may come as a surprise to many managers that Pedro's underlying stats are better than Richarlison (e.g. 2 shots and 1 key pass per match), although the Everton man is nailed on.
The Downgrade
Fraser has looked very good at the start of this season and might end up being the fourth midfielder we have been looking for. His rate of making key passes is excellent and as long as Wilson (and hopefully King) keep finishing, those assists will keep on coming. I see no sign of his returns slowing as Bournemouth's fixtures over the next four are still pretty decent. They have an average difficulty of 3. Fraser's xG and xA compares admirably with Mkhitaryan despite coming in £1.5m cheaper. If you have Aubameyang and are in the market for a fourth midfielder who will enable you to spread the wealth to other areas of your team, then Ryan Fraser should be your man.
What to do with King?
King's numbers are not terrible so perhaps there has been an element of bad luck to his lack of returns.
However, when you look at the stats for some of the other players in and around his price bracket (including one player in his team), I'd consider trading in either this week or next. As with Jota, I'll set out three players to consider.If you have Jota and King, but only one free transfer then I would recommend keeping King for one more week. I'm usually reluctant to take hits unless certain it'll pay off.
The upgrade (+£1m)
The sideways move (+/-£0.2m)Arnie was on my watch list all summer long but I decided to go for King instead due to the latter's the tempting opening fixtures coupled with promising pre-season form. I don't regret that decision as it facilitated Shaw in for Cedric, so I'm up overall. Arnie's only goal this season came from the penalty spot, which is notable as Mark Noble was on the pitch. If Arnie is the Hammers' penalty taker then that emboldens his appeal. Looking at his stats, however, I'm not convinced an upgrade is necessary when there are cheaper players currently putting in equivalent or better numbers. I'd wait with Arnie.
The Sideways Move (+/- 0.2m)
Mitrovic has performed well and has taken the most shots in the sub £7m forward bracket. However, he has not shown much in the way of creating goals for others and a lot of his shots have been more speculative in nature with only 2.5 from inside the box. Fulham's upcoming four fixtures are more difficult than Bournemouth's and equal to Southampton (relevant if considering Danny Ings, who is my downgrade pick).
The Downgrade
For instance, I am considering trading in Jota and King for Mkhi and Ings, I wouldn't be able to do that if I went sideways. Ings' stats are impressive for a £5.5m forward. He looks like he can score as well as assist. It is entirely possible that he may be rested or managed as he returns from a serious injury but so far Mark Hughes has been bullish saying that Ings looks very fit. At 5.5m, I think it is a risk worth taking.I considered Wilson for this position but, if looking for a proper downgrade, there is a lot you would be able to do with an extra £1m!
Ings should have scored more goals than he has so far this season so his underlying stats are very promising and worth strongly considering.
What I Plan To Do ahead of GW3?
I have 2 free transfers with no money in the bank. I also have Jota and King.
I'll be transferring in Henrik Mkhitaryan and Danny Ings, leaving 0.4m in the bank.
Best of luck this week and may your arrows be green!
FPLBraveheart
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