Dec 14

Gameweek 4 Attacking Potential: Form vs Fixture vs Odds

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Gameweek 4 Attacking Potential: Form vs Fixture vs Odds

Which team has the best attacking potential for Gameweek 4? We've analysed attacking form, fixture difficulty and the bookies odds to reveal which teams are going to score the highest.

Last game week the table suggested that Everton, Man City & Arsenal had the highest potential whilst Swansea, Burnley & Hull had the lowest. This proved very accurate with the top three scoring seven goals and the bottom three scoring just once. Ahead of Gameweek 4, @CallumRead has compiled the data and created another forecast which hopefully provides results with a similar accuracy to last week. Not only is this useful when selecting your FPL team, it's also a great visual aid for daily fantasy players. How is the data calculated? Every team has been rated 1 to 20 (1: best in the league, 20: worst in the league) based on form, fixture and odds. We've then totalled up all three scores and colour coded them for you to easily visualise which ones have the best goalscoring potential for Gameweek 4.

Gameweek 4 Best Overall Attacking Potential:

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Best Attacking Form Ahead of Gameweek 4:

Team Goals Scored Chances Created Big Chances
MCI 9 38 9
CHE 7 37 7
MUN 6 36 7
ARS 6 24 4
LIV 5 47 4
Manchester City have found the back of the net nine times from nine Big Chances in their opening three Premier League games but will be without their talisman Sergio Aguero for the next two Premier League fixtures, including the Manchester derby. If you're looking for an immediate striking replacement then Kelechi Iheanacho offers a cheap stop gap solution. They youngster hasn't got off the mark this season but has registered one assist and had two shots. Elsewhere in the Manchester City attack, Raheem Sterling has looked a different player under Pep and his two goals against West Ham added to his seven shots in three games leaves Sterling an adequate midfield option for the foreseeable future. Chelsea found the back of the net three times against Burnley but Antonio Conte will be wanting his side to find the back of the net more from the amount of chances Chelsea are creating. Eden Hazard is playing out of his skin and continued that form into the international break. The Belgian has had 14 shots this season, created six chances and scored two goals � leave him out at your peril. It's hard to overlook Diego Costa now Sergio Aguero is banned, he's the focal point of Chelsea's attack and also looks a fresh face under Conte He's registered two goals from nine shots and one assist from three games. Manchester United place third in the form table and if you don't already own Zlatan Ibrahimovic � what are you doing? The big Swede has three goals this season and has shown on more than one occasion this season he can score even if he's not playing well. Zlatan has had 12 shots, the second most of any striker and created four chances, if you can guarantee one thing this weekend it's that Ibrahimovic will be raring to get the Manchester Derby underway. Arsenal were in fine form against Watford scoring three goals at Vicarage Road with Alexis Sanchez finding the back of the net in the win. The Chilean has created five chances this season and will fancy himself to create more against a Southampton side that are yet to record a clean sheet. The Liverpool attack constantly throws up and FPL selection headache due to the vast amount of quality they have. We'd stick with Roberto Firmino or Coutinho, the former has created the most joint chances in the Premier League (10) and has had seven shots whilst his Brazilian teammate has had the joint most shots in the league (15) and created six chances.

Best Attacking Fixture For Gameweek 4:

Team Vs. Goals Conceded Big Chances Conceded
TOT STO 5 6
WHU WAT 5 6
LEI LIV 4 6
WBA BOU 4 5
WAT WHU 4 5
In terms of which clubs have the most attractive attacking fixture in Gameweek 4, based on statistics, we are presented with five completely new sides. Tottenham face a Stoke City side that look a different team without Jack Butland in goal but could become tighter at the back with the addition of Dutch defender Bruno Martins-Indi. Erik Lamela has had a brilliant opening three games, creating eight chances and scoring and assisting one goal apiece. Elsewhere Harry Kane will be desperate to find the back of the net against Stoke, he's not scored from his six shots this season but with an attractive upcoming fixture list and a reducing ownership percentage could be worth the gamble. West Ham also face a side that have conceded five goal in the shape of Watford, the Hornets' looked very poor defensively against Arsenal and on another day would've conceded more than three. It's a difficult job picking who will start for the Hammers this weekend, Simone Zaza has no stats to support his selection but brings pedigree from his time at Juventus and Sassuolo. Whilst in midfield, most FPL managers are desperate for Dimitri Payet to return to the scene. The Frenchman made a substitute appearance against Belarus during the international break, the Hammers will be craving his creativity this weekend against an unimpressive Watford defence. Leicester, West Brom and Watford all face sides that have conceded four goals this season. For the Champions, how can you overlook Jamie Vardy for Leicester attacking coverage? The striker grabbed his first goal of the season against Swansea and will be looking to continue his streak against a shaky Liverpool defence. It's hard to tip any Tony Pulis attacking player as the man hates his own strikers, but Salomon Rondon's attacking stats are impressive for a Baggies striker. He's had 12 shots, scoring one goal and created four chances, for a cheap third striker you could do a lot worse than Rondon. Watford's newest signing Roberto Pereyra came off the bench against Arsenal to find the back of the net on his debut. He looked on a different wavelength to the rest of his side � and that's not a dig at Watford it's a testament to Pereyra's ability. At the price of just £6.0m you're getting a seriously good attacking player for a very cheap price.

Bookies Odds To Score In Gameweek 4:

Team To Score Implied Chance
CHE, LIV, ARS 1.11 90.09%
WHU, TOT 1.17 85.47%
EVE 1.22 81.97%
BOU, MNU 1.29 77.52%
MID 1.33  75.19%
The bookies odds are always provide an unbiased opinion and provide an eye opening look at the weekends fixtures. Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal all top the bookies table for Gameweek 4, all three sides also featured in the Best Attacking Form table too. Both Chelsea and Arsenal will be favourites to overcome Swansea and Southampton respectively but Liverpool's fixture against Leicester City is harder to call. West Ham and Tottenham place second, both sides will be looking to get back to winning ways against Watford and Stoke respectively, two sides that have looked very week defensively, perhaps this is why the bookies have placed them so highly? Everton place third on the table and will be hoping Romelu Lukaku can continue his form with Belgium into Monday Nights game against Sunderland. The striker scored twice in Belgium's 3-0 win over Cyprus and will be eager to get his first goal of the season against David Moyes' side. Bournemouth place fourth on the list as they welcome West Brom to Dean Court, Callum Wilson provides their biggest danger going forwards but so far hasn't scored from his three shots. Manchester United also come in fourth and as mentioned in the Best Attacking Form table, it's incredibly hard to not select Zlatan at this moment in time. Middlesbrough complete the bookies odds table, they play hosts to Crystal Palace this Saturday. Over 20% of FPL managers will be hoping Alvaro Negredo can find the back of the net or add to his two assists this season.

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