Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League Goalscorer Analysis For Gameweek 27. This week Daniel Richardson returns to analyse which teams have the highest chance of finding the back of the net this weekend.
Gameweek 27 is without four fixtures after Newcastle vs Manchester City and Liverpool vs Everton were rescheduled due to Capital One Cup Final. Without the likes of Aguero, Firmino and Lukaku to choose from we are presented with numerous differential options.
We are going to use recent goalscoring form, opposition defensive statistics and the bookies odds to determine which teams have the greatest chance of scoring.
The table shows that Tottenham have been in excellent goalscoring form on the road but struggled to apply the finishing touch in home games. Spurs did however manage to put three past Fiorentina in the Europa League this week at White Hart Lane, so maybe that's a sign of things to come.
Leicester are level with Spurs on average goals per game but have proved consistent in both home and away games. Chelsea and Sunderland will be looking to carry their goal scoring momentum into their away ties after strong attacking performances last weekend.
Only Norwich have scored less than Chelsea on the road in recent weeks with the Canaries failing to find the back of the net in two consecutive away matches. Manchester United aren't renowned for their attacking potential this season, but they have proved stronger at home by a narrow margin.
The bookies fancy a goal fest this weekend by the looks of their implied odds. Leicester are the favourites based on their recent attacking form and Norwich's poor defensive record. Tottenham trail narrowly behind the Tigers in the 90%+ bracket ahead of their home fixture against Swansea.
West Ham (vs. Sunderland), Stoke (vs. Aston Villa) and Watford (vs. Bournemouth) will be hoping to entertain their fans this weekend, with all three teams facing weak defences at home. Chelsea have surprisingly high odds considering their recent away form and Southampton's impeccable defensive record.
Arsenal just make the bookies top seven with a 74.07% chance of finding the back of the net at Old Trafford. This is no doubt aided by the fact that Manchester United have very limited options at the back due to numerous injury problems.
As mentioned, Norwich's defence hasn't been the most solid this season therefore Leicester will look to exploit the fact that they have conceded, on average, three goals per game. In the absence of Ryan Shawcross, Stoke have conceded 2.5 goals and 3.5 big chances per game, but will bottom of the table Villa be able to capitalise on that?
WBA (vs. Crystal Palace) features surprisingly high in this table but as we've learned from our previous tables the bookies don't rate them based on their attacking form. Palace have however conceded from every big chance they've conceded in their last four.
Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Sunderland don't have the worst defensive averages but they are still averaging 1+ goals per game conceded. This makes the likelihood of seeing at least one goal from West Ham, Stoke and Watford quite high, which coincides with the bookies predictions.
Leicester come in as number one favourites based on form, fixtures and odds which means you'd be mad to enter Gameweek 27 without Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez. The Foxes have scored 48 league goals this season and the pair account for 68.75% of these, whilst also assisting 15 along the way.
Spurs have the same goalscoring form as Leicester across their last four matches but have a slightly tougher fixture in Gameweek 27. Their key man Harry Kane was rested during their Europa League victory over Fiorentina and should be back to lead the line against Swansea.
Christian Eriksen has also been in top form creating a league highest of 21 chances from his last four matches in the Premier League. Teammate Dele Alli also shouldn't be overlooked, the England youngster has continued to impress with two goals and two assists in as many games.
West Ham's Dimitri Payet returned to form last game week with a goal and assist against Norwich, before following that up with a brace in the F.A Cup against Blackburn. The Hammers have a 86.96% implied chance of scoring so it could be worth doubling up on their attack in the daily game. Loanee Emmanuel Emenike who also got on the scoresheet Blackburn, could be a shrewd pick.
Watford and Stoke make up the top five. The Hornets have been in poor goal-scoring form as of late - failing to find the net in four of their last six Premier league fixtures. However, it's hard to ignore the strike partnership of Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney as they take on a leaky Bournemouth side who have lost their last three matches conceding seven goals in the process.
While Stoke City's attacking options will be bolstered with the return of Marko Arnautovic, who has been directly involved in 40.7% of The Potters goals this season. Jon Walters and Mame Biram Diouf are hot favourites of bookies to find the net, despite their recent form. Maybe the bookmakers know something we don't...
Recent Team Goalscoring Form:
The table below displays the top seven teams based on average goals per game (GPG). It also highlights how many of each team's goals were scored at home compared to away. The data taken from last four Premier League matches.| Team | Home | Away | GPG |
| Tottenham | 1 | 8 | 2.25 |
| Leicester | 5 | 4 | 2.25 |
| Chelsea | 6 | 1 | 1.75 |
| West Ham | 4 | 2 | 1.5 |
| Norwich | 6 | 0 | 1.5 |
| Manchester United | 3 | 2 | 1.25 |
| Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1.25 |
Team Odds To Score In Gameweek 27:
The table below displays the top seven teams based on the bookies odds to score anytime in Gameweek 27. The odds have been converted to an implied chance percentage.| Team | To Score |
| Leicester | 90.91% |
| Spurs | 90.09% |
| West Ham | 86.96% |
| Stoke | 83.33% |
| Watford | 76.92% |
| Chelsea | 75.19% |
| Arsenal | 74.07% |
Who Faces The Worst Defence In Gameweek 27:
The table below displays the top seven teams based on opposition defensive form. It highlights the opposing team's average number of goals conceded (GC) and big chances conceded (BCC) per game. The data taken from last four Premier League matches.| Team | Vs. | GC | BCC |
| LEI | nor | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| avl | STO | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| WBA | cry | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| STO | avl | 2.0 | 1.75 |
| WAT | bou | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| WHU | sun | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| sun | WHU | 1.25 | 1.00 |
Player Odds To Score In Gameweek 27:
The table below displays the top three players per position, based on the bookies odds to score anytime in Gameweek 27. The odds have been converted to an implied chance percentage.| Pos | Player | IC% |
| FWD | Jamie Vardy | 50.00% |
| FWD | Harry Kane | 50.00% |
| FWD | Mame Biram Diouf | 40.82% |
| MID | Jon Walters | 40.82% |
| MID | Riyad Mahrez | 40.00% |
| MID | Dele Alli | 37.04% |
| DEF | Robert Huth | 18.18% |
| DEF | Leandro Bacuna | 16.67% |
| DEF | Patrick van Aanholt | 13.33% |
Gameweek 27 Goalscoring Ratings:
Leicester come in as number one favourites based on form, fixtures and odds which means you'd be mad to enter Gameweek 27 without Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez. The Foxes have scored 48 league goals this season and the pair account for 68.75% of these, whilst also assisting 15 along the way.
Spurs have the same goalscoring form as Leicester across their last four matches but have a slightly tougher fixture in Gameweek 27. Their key man Harry Kane was rested during their Europa League victory over Fiorentina and should be back to lead the line against Swansea.
Christian Eriksen has also been in top form creating a league highest of 21 chances from his last four matches in the Premier League. Teammate Dele Alli also shouldn't be overlooked, the England youngster has continued to impress with two goals and two assists in as many games.
West Ham's Dimitri Payet returned to form last game week with a goal and assist against Norwich, before following that up with a brace in the F.A Cup against Blackburn. The Hammers have a 86.96% implied chance of scoring so it could be worth doubling up on their attack in the daily game. Loanee Emmanuel Emenike who also got on the scoresheet Blackburn, could be a shrewd pick.
Watford and Stoke make up the top five. The Hornets have been in poor goal-scoring form as of late - failing to find the net in four of their last six Premier league fixtures. However, it's hard to ignore the strike partnership of Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney as they take on a leaky Bournemouth side who have lost their last three matches conceding seven goals in the process.
While Stoke City's attacking options will be bolstered with the return of Marko Arnautovic, who has been directly involved in 40.7% of The Potters goals this season. Jon Walters and Mame Biram Diouf are hot favourites of bookies to find the net, despite their recent form. Maybe the bookmakers know something we don't...
