Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League Goalscorer Analysis For Gameweek 26. This week
jamieFPL returns to analyse which teams have the highest chance of finding the back of the net this weekend.
Gameweek 26 presents some surprising results as a number of in-form sides come up against one another. We are going to use recent goalscoring form, opposition defensive statistics and the bookies odds to determine which teams have the greatest chance of scoring.
Please note that all statistics (unless mentioned otherwise) are based on the player's last FOUR Premier League matches. We feel this is a good timeframe to judge form on as it includes two home and away matches.
Recent Goalscoring Form:
The table below displays the top seven teams based on average goals per game (GPG). It also highlights how many of each team's goals were scored at home compared to away. The data taken from last four Premier League matches.
| Team |
Home |
Away |
GPG |
| Tottenham |
5 |
6 |
3.6 |
| Everton |
4 |
6 |
3.3 |
| Leicester |
5 |
4 |
3 |
| Man City |
5 |
3 |
2.6 |
| Liverpool |
2 |
5 |
2.3 |
| Bournemouth |
3 |
3 |
2 |
| West Ham |
4 |
1 |
1.6 |
The table shows that Tottenham are in superb goalscoring form both home and away, and are currently firing in an average of 3.6 goals per game. Leicester and Man City join Spurs on home form scoring five goals in their last two on home soil.
There's obviously something in the air at Merseyside because Everton and Liverpool find themselves in better goalscoring form away from home. West Ham, however, are the opposite and have only scored one goal in their last two away matches, which may cast doubts over those considering captaining Dimitri Payet.
Bookies Odds To Score
The table below displays the top seven teams based on the bookies odds to score 2+ goals and 3+ goals in Gameweek 26. The odds have been converted to an implied chance percentage.
| Team |
2+ Goals |
3+ Goals |
| Chelsea |
67% |
38% |
| Everton |
58% |
30% |
| Arsenal |
57% |
29% |
| Man City |
57% |
29% |
| Man United |
50% |
24% |
| Bournemouth |
43% |
19% |
| Crystal Palace |
42% |
17% |
The bookies predict that during Gameweek 26 five teams are likely to put at least two goals past their opponents.
Chelsea are the runaway favourites with an implied chance of 67% as they host Newcastle at Stamford Bridge.
Everton (vs. West Brom),
Arsenal (vs. Leicester) and
Man City (vs. Tottenham) are all predicted to entertain their home fans with goals. Leicester and Tottenham both conceding two or more
despite their recent form is a shrewd call by the bookies. To round it off
Man United look good for a goal, as they sit on the 50% mark ahead of their visit to the Stadium of Light.
Surprisingly we don't see neither
Tottenham (vs. Man City) or
Leicester (vs. Arsenal) appear in the top seven of the bookies table. Despite facing tough opposition on the road, it's hard to ignore two teams that have averaged over three goals per game in their last four Premier League matches.
Opposition Defensive Form:
The table below displays the top seven teams based on opposition defensive form. It highlights the opposing team's average number of goals conceded (GC) and big chances conceded (BCC) per game. The data taken from last four Premier League matches.
| Team |
Vs. |
GC |
BCC |
| whu |
NOR |
4.3 |
3.6 |
| wat |
CRY |
3.3 |
2.3 |
| AVL |
liv |
3 |
1.6 |
| BOU |
sto |
3 |
4.3 |
| mun |
SUN |
2.6 |
2 |
| CHE |
new |
2 |
2.6 |
| EVE |
wba |
1.6 |
2.3 |
West Ham have the pleasure of facing Norwich City this weekend who have conceded an average of 4.3 goals per game. It's a surprise that the Hammers didn't feature higher in the bookies odds, though we expect this could be due to their poor recent away form - as we discovered in the first table.
Watford (vs. Crystal Palace) and
Aston Villa (vs. Liverpool) have the second and third highest chances for goals based on opposition goals conceded. Both of these sides also don't feature within the bookies table, likely due to them both playing away from home.
Bournemouth tie with Aston Villa as the third most likely team to score based on opposition defensive form. The Cherries also have the added advantage of facing Stoke who have the highest average of big chances conceded per game (4.3).
Gameweek 26 Goalscoring Potential:
Bournemouth and
Everton are the only teams that show up in all tables meaning that they have the form, fixture and bookies seal of approval. This puts
Romelu Lukaku (£8.8m) who scored last gameweek and
Benik Afobe (£6.1m) who features in
this week's differential article, in very good light for a goal.
Chelsea are the bookies runaway favourites with a whopping 67% implied chance of scoring over two goals against Newcastle. Step forward
Diego Costa (£10.6m) who cropped up as our main
FPL Headline earlier this week. The striker has thrived under Hiddink scoring three in his last four matches.
Manchester United face the current fifth worst defence in the league and subsequently have the bookies backing to put more than two past Sunderland.
Jesse Lingard (£4.3) has a goal to show for both of his last matches, whilst
Wayne Rooney (£10.0m) looks a strong option with a couple of goals and assists to his name from his last four.
Liverpool's better goalscoring record away from home is good news for
Roberto Firmino (£8.2m) owners as he travels to Aston Villa. Meanwhile, a minor cause for concern to
Dimitri Payet (£8.2m) owners as West Ham's poor goalscoring form away from home is enough to put the bookies off.
