Dec 14

Fantasy Premier League Defensive Difficulty Forecast - Double Gameweek Tips

Share post on:
The main topic of discussion within the Fantasy Premier League community is when to play your second wildcard, bench boost and triple captain chips. @jamieFPL has stepped in to look at the bigger picture for those pondering over when to play their wildcard and who to select. Forward planning at this stage is more important to your overall success than ever before this season, so we've created attacking and defensive difficulty forecasts for the remaining fixtures. We are trying to bring a different angle on the DGW discussion and at a glance you'll notice that our forecast differs from the ‘fixture trackers' you will have seen in recent weeks. With this in mind, we feel it's essential that we thoroughly explain what we've created.

Description Of Forecast:

The table below displays every Premier League team's clean sheet potential for each fixture between now and the end of the season, based on recent form. Each team was ranked from 1-20 in four different categories: number of goals scored at home, number of goals scored away, number of goals conceded at home and number of goals conceded away. Data range: Last five home and away Premier League matches. Least goals scored = Lowest Rank Least goals conceded = Lowest Rank For each fixture the home/away goals conceded rank is added to their oppositions home/away goals scored rank - depending on where the fixture takes place. The lower the number, the more chance of that team keeping a clean sheet in the fixture. Every team's clean sheet ranking for each game week has been coloured in accordance to this key: Forecast Key The best possible rank a team can get for a single gameweek is 2 and the worst is 40. Blank fixtures go down as 40 as there is no chance of the team keeping a clean sheet. We've also made the Google Drive document available to those who would like to see the individual rankings for each fixture.

Fantasy Premier League Defensive Difficulty Forecast:

Defensive Forecast

Observations from the table:

Everton defenders are the best option for the rest of the season but could struggle to keep a clean sheet in their first double game week with Southampton and Liverpool looking more composed in attack recently. Arsenal have a much more appealing run on paper, but based on recent form and Everton's extra fixture, they sit just behind the Toffee's in second. Petr Cech and Joel Robles rotate well and will be a popular option for those who intend on playing their wildcard in gameweek 33, followed by bench boost in DGW34 to field 15 players. Manchester United have the highest potential for clean sheets from both double gameweeks and with no clear cut attacking picks it might be a wise decision to double up on their defence. If you are planning on bench boosting in DGW34, with two United defenders, then be sure to carry over two free transfers as a number of teams, including United, blank the following gameweek. West Ham are the surprise inclusion in the top four and they seem to have been widely overlooked in favour of their attackers - despite placing in the bottom half of our attacking forecast. Tottenham, despite having +80 points added due to two blanks, place in a respectable fifth place which indicates the likes of Toby Alderweireld might be worth holding on to, despite featuring in no double gameweeks. The same applies to the Southampton defence and the likes of Fraser Forster and Virgil Van Dijk, who have a good chance of recording some shutouts over the next four weeks. Liverpool's hardest remaining fixtures fall within their double gameweek in week 34, as they travel to Bournemouth before hosting Merseyside rivals Everton. Mignolet and Moreno have been popular inclusions in multiple draft teams because they feature in both double gameweeks and are the only team without a blank. If you're playing your bench boost in DGW34 you might want to invest in their attack and look to bring in their defenders from GW35. Leicester place mid-table, but one thing that the forecast doesn't consider is the Premier League story line and which clubs need results. Four of their five matches have resulted in a 1-0 victory and if they want to complete the underdog story they'll need to remain resolute at the back. West Brom defenders look worth investing in for DGW34, but could prove liabilities afterwards with a tough end to their campaign. If they were involved in the relegation dog-fight you'd expect Tony Pulis to pull out some surprise clean sheets, but with little left to play for that seems unlikely. Jack Butland's ownership looks set to drop as Stoke arguably have the toughest upcoming fixtures when it comes to clean sheets. Their next three fixtures are against Liverpool, Tottenham and Man City - with all three mathematically standing a chance of Europe they'll have lots to play for. Newcastle and Crystal Palace foot the table, so if you were considering bringing any of their defenders for GW34 it might be wise to stick with your single game week defenders from Tottenham, Southampton and/or Leicester instead.