Welcome to our Fantasy Premier League Defensive Analysis For Gameweek 33 article. NaturalFootyFan returns to pick out the clubs with the best clean sheet potential ahead of the weekend's fixtures.
Our Gameweek 32 defensive recommendations were our most successful to date, with all four of our recommended clubs securing a clean sheet.
Leicester City extended their gap at the top to seven points, following a frustrating 90 minutes for Spurs, as they came from behind to grab a draw versus Liverpool. Elsewhere, Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal were equally impressive as each other with four-nil victories apiece.
The ultimate aim of this analysis is to help you decide on your best starting XI for Gameweek 33, while hopefully pointing you in the right direction for potential defensive transfers.
*Note - If you own a double gameweek goalkeeper or defender(s), you should field them no matter where their clubs rank in these tables.
Are you left rubbing your eyes in disbelief after every Leicester result? Well it's time you stopped… the surprise has worn off and with their fourth 1-0 triumph in succession, they are consistently displaying the resilience and composure of true Champions.
Both Manchester clubs have climbed the form table with three clean sheets in their last four matches. Man United have held off tough opposition (Watford, Man City & Everton) to secure back-to back shutouts, while in contrast, City bagged their trio of clean sheets against weaker opposition (Aston Villa, Norwich & Bournemouth).
Another disadvantage, and increased risk of selecting Man City defenders, is that they are still competing in the Champions League. Following their impressive stalemate, in which they scored two invaluable away goals versus PSG - rotation and resting will definitely come into play over the next few Gameweeks.
It may be an eye-opener for some, that the majority of clean sheet potential based on fixture difficulty comes from clubs playing away, but there is a reason behind this.
As we enter the penultimate period of the season, the opportunity of playing on home soil, especially for relegation battlers, is seen as a chance to stay solid at the back and let the opposition call the shots. 50% of clean sheets throughout GW31 & GW32 have come from clubs playing on the road.
With this in mind, Bournemouth represent a great option, as they travel to Villa Park on Saturday. Aston Villa's dire form has seen them feature as a regular at the top of our oppositions ‘easiest fixture' chart.
To add to their misery, current caretaker boss Eric Black has lost all three Premier League games when in charge, one with Birmingham City in November 2007, one with Sunderland in December 2011 and last time out with The Villans.
Everton are in second place in terms of fixture ease, as they travel to Vicarage Road to take on goal-shy Watford. The Hornets have lost their last four Premier League fixtures, scoring just once in the process, while Everton have shown better form away from home this season.
They also have the advantage of having a double gameweek, so their chances of keeping a clean sheet are massively increased. Romelu Lukaku appears a shoe-in for most FPL managers, which leaves two slots - possibly one for Robles and/or another Everton defender.
In Form Defences Ahead Of Gameweek 33:
First off let's take a look at recent form. The following table displays the top seven defences based on their number of clean sheets and average goals conceded in their last four Premier League matches:| Team | Clean Sheets | Goals Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 4 | 0 |
| Man City | 3 | 1 |
| Man United | 3 | 1 |
| Norwich | 2 | 3 |
| Tottenham | 2 | 3 |
| West Brom | 2 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 2 | 4 |
Easiest Defensive Fixture In Gameweek 33:
The table below displays the top seven defences based on opposition goals scored and big chances created. Capital letters are used for home teams and lowercase for away teams. The data is taken from the last four Premier League matches:| Team | Vs. | Goals Scored | Big Chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| bou | AVL | 0 | 3 |
| eve | WAT, (cry) | 1, (5) | 7, (4) |
| wba | MCI | 3 | 6 |
| mun | TOT | 3 | 10 |
| SOU | new | 4 | 2 |
| lei | SUN | 4 | 3 |
| CRY | nor, (eve) | 4, (5) | 3, (10) |
Bookies Clean Sheet Odds For Gameweek 33:
The table below displays the top seven teams based on the bookies odds to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 33. The odds have been converted into implied chance percentage:| Team | Implied Chance % |
|---|---|
| Man City | 57% |
| Liverpool | 50% |
| Southampton | 49% |
| Crystal Palace | 42%, *27% |
| Chelsea | 41% |
| Tottenham | 40% |
| Leicester | 38% |
*vs. Everton (DGW)
Man City are the clear favourites to come away unscathed in Gameweek 33, with a 57% implied chance of a clean sheet. They've won in all of their last eight meetings with West Brom, with back-to-back three-nil victories in 2015. West Brom have failed to muster a shot on target in seven Premier League games this season, the most of any side in a single season since 2003/04, and this contest fits the bill to be another one of those matches. Although Chelsea are ranked in fifth, we feel they have a great chance of a shut-out. They are looking to keep a fourth consecutive clean sheet at the Liberty Stadium (in all competitions), so come into this tie with a head-to-head record which is strongly in their favour. The Blues are enjoying a rich run of form - currently enjoying the longest unbeaten run of any team in the Premier League this season, going 15 games without a loss (W7 D8). Swansea have never beaten Chelsea in England's top flight, and we think they'll struggle once again.Gameweek 33 Clean Sheet Verdict:
Based on our analysis and research methods we now have our top three recommendations based on form, fixture and odds. We have also thrown in a bonus, which is generally a side ranked high across all of our charts. Here is our verdict and predicted backlines for Gameweek 33 - colour coded in terms of likelihood of starting. (Rotation Risk = RR), (Injury Doubt = INJ) & (Lack of Fitness = FIT).Form: Leicester (vs. SUN)
Schmeichel
Simpson Morgan Huth Fuchs
Fixture: Bournemouth (vs. AVL)
Boruc
Smith (INJ) Francis Cook Daniels
Bonus: Man City (vs. BOU)
Hart
Zabaleta (RR) Otamendi Mangala Kolarov (RR)
Odds: Chelsea (vs. SWA)
Courtois
Azpilicueta Ivanovic Miazga Rahman
