Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League Defensive Analysis For Gameweek 29. NaturalFootyFan returns to pick out the clubs with the best clean sheet potential ahead of the midweek fixtures.
Again Clean Sheets came at a premium in Gameweek 28, especially on the Tuesday, as Bournemouth were the only club to secure a shutout. Southampton's defensive stability appears to have caved in, after conceding four in their last two matches, while the London based pair of Arsenal and Tottenham received a massive blow in their title hopes.
The Gunners were beaten by a rotated Swansea side and Spurs struggled in-front of goal as West Ham held onto a one-goal lead. Liverpool fans and Jurgen Klopp were left smiling, after their team shocked the nation by destroying Manchester City 3-0 on Wednesday.
In Form Defences Ahead Of Gameweek 29:
Moving into Gameweek 29, let's start by taking a look at recent form. The following table displays the top seven defences based on their number of clean sheets and average goals conceded in their last four Premier League matches:
| Team |
Clean Sheets |
Goals Conceded |
| Liverpool |
2 |
2 |
| Everton |
2 |
3 |
| West Ham |
2 |
3 |
| Tottenham |
1 |
3 |
| Watford |
1 |
3 |
| Southampton |
2 |
4 |
| Chelsea |
0 |
4 |
Following three weeks of Southampton leading our form chart, they've have finally been knocked off their perch by Liverpool. The Merseyside club have been in terrific form in their last two Premier League matches both defensively (back-to-back clean sheets) and offensively (nine goals).
When Klopp's intense pressing system is in full flow they are one of the toughest clubs to face in England and after their midweek annihilation of Manchester City, their confidence will be flowing.
Everton and West Ham are next on the list, after each secured a couple of clean sheets in their last four matches. The only problem is, they come head-to-head in Gameweek 29.
The Toffees backline has improved massively since the return of Phil Jagielka. The Englishman has formed a solid centre-back partnership with Funes Mori, and together the pair have conceded just twice since the last day of January in all competitions.
The Hammers, just like Liverpool, kept back-to-back clean sheets in GW27 and GW28 respectively. Their unorthodox 3-5-2 system worked successfully versus Tottenham, however, with James Collins expected to miss the next three matches with a hamstring injury - some re-shuffling will be needed.
Easiest Defensive Fixture In Gameweek 29:
The table below displays the top seven defences based on opposition goals scored and big chances created. Capital letters are used for home teams and lowercase for away teams. The data is taken from the last four Premier League matches:
| Team |
Vs. |
Goals Scored |
Big Chances |
| lei |
WAT |
2 |
5 |
| bou |
NEW |
2 |
7 |
| avl |
MCI |
2 |
7 |
| NEW |
bou |
3 |
5 |
| SWA |
nor |
3 |
6 |
| sun |
SOU |
3 |
7 |
| MCI |
avl |
4 |
2 |
Leicester top the table and also top our fixture difficulty chart with a trip to The Hornets nest. Watford have failed to score in six of their last eight Premier League matches and their loss to Manchester United on Wednesday further underlined their reliance on Deeney and Ighalo.
Bournemouth are in a purple patch of form, winning their last two matches and taking down the meanest defence in the League, Southampton, in the process. This turnaround has been built upon a well-drilled defensive unit and having create some breathing space away from the relegation zone, The Cherries can now play their possession game with less pressure.
Eddie Howe's men travel to St. James' Park to entertain a wounded Newcastle side who have failed to score in six of their last eleven matches in all competitions. Just 54% of their passes have been in the opposition half this season - a lower proportion than any team in the Premier League, despite Jonjo Shelvey's best attempts.
Bookies Clean Sheet Odds For Gameweek 29:
The table below displays the top seven teams based on the bookies odds to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 29. The odds have been converted into implied chance percentage:
| Team |
Implied Chance % |
| Man City |
60% |
| Chelsea |
52% |
| Southampton |
49% |
| Man United |
45% |
| Swansea |
42% |
| Everton |
41% |
| Liverpool |
38% |
The bookies are always a great source for a neutral opinion and they have Man City as the outright favourite to keep a clean sheet this weekend. Villa have failed to find the net in six of their last eight Premier League games against Man City and remain stranded at the bottom of the table.
As you can see, Chelsea have a 52% implied chance of a shutout, so are also worth considering this weekend. They have won all seven Premier League matches against Stoke City at Stamford Bridge with the Potters scoring just two goals in that run.
Although Southampton have dropped off recently, you cannot ignore their attractive fixture in Gameweek 29. They host a Sunderland side who suffered their worst ever Premier League defeat in this fixture last season, losing by eight goals to nil.
Gameweek 29 Clean Sheet Verdict:
Based on our analysis and research methods we now have our top three recommendations based on form, fixture and odds. We have also thrown in a gamble for good measure ahead of Gameweek 29:
Form: Liverpool (vs. CRY)
Crystal Palace has been a banana skin match for Liverpool in the past, however, Klopp will be confident of keeping the momentum going after a couple of pivotal victories (6-0 vs. Aston Villa & 3-0 vs. Man City) over a four-day period.
Fixture: Leicester (vs. WAT)
As Leicester City move closer towards achieving the unthinkable, the more emphasis is placed upon their backline. The Foxes are a free-scoring side, but with a three-point cushion at the top, they will look to tighten things up defensively. If they can cut off Ighalo and Deeney's supply, a clean sheet is there for the taking.
Odds: Man City (vs. AVL)
It's been a nightmare of a Premier League season for Aston Villa - they have the fewest wins (3), the fewest goals (22) and most worryingly, the worst points total (home and away). We are expecting a big reaction from City after their embarrassing loss to Liverpool.
Gamble: Swansea (vs. NOR)
The Canaries were lively in their midweek clash with Chelsea, however, until they invest in a clinical centre-forward, we can't see where the goals are going to come from. Swansea will dominate possession and with man-mountain Ashley Williams shielding Fabianski, a clean sheet for The Swans is the likely outcome.
