Dec 14

Fantasy Premier League Attacking Difficulty Forecast - Double Gameweek Tips

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The main topic of discussion within the Fantasy Premier League community is when to play your second wildcard, bench boost and triple captain chips. @jamieFPL has stepped in to look at the bigger picture for those pondering over when to play their wildcard and who to select. Forward planning at this stage is more important to your overall success than ever before this season, so we've created attacking and defensive difficulty forecasts for the remaining fixtures. We are trying to bring a different angle on the DGW discussion and at a glance you'll notice that our forecast differs from the ‘fixture trackers' you will have seen in recent weeks. With this in mind, we feel it's essential that we thoroughly explain what we've created.

Description Of Forecast:

The table below displays every Premier League team's attacking potential for each fixture between now and the end of the season, based on recent form. Each team was ranked from 1-20 in four different categories: number of goals scored at home, number of goals scored away, number of goals conceded at home and number of goals conceded away. Data range: Last five home and away Premier League matches. Most goals scored = Lowest Rank Most goals conceded = Lowest Rank For each fixture the home/away goal scoring rank is added to their oppositions home/away goals conceded rank - depending on where the fixture takes place. The lower the number, the more chance of that team scoring in the fixture. Every team's goalscoring rank for each game week has been coloured in accordance to this key: Forecast Key The best possible rank a team can get for a single gameweek is 2 and the worst is 40. Blank fixtures go down as 40 as there is no chance of the team scoring. We've also made the Google Drive document available to those who would like to see the individual rankings for each fixture.

Fantasy Premier League Attacking Difficulty Forecast:

Attacking Forecast

Observations from the table:

Liverpool and Everton attacking players look worth investing in for the rest of the season with favourable fixtures, and a couple of double gameweeks each. Romelu Lukaku will be the popular choice from Everton, with several managers no doubt also looking to the services of Ross Barkley & Aaron Lennon. With so many in-form strikers, it'll be tough to find space for Liverpool's Daniel Sturridge. Therefore, we expect most managers will turn to Roberto Firmino and Philippe Coutinho.   Tottenham, despite having +80 points added due to two blanks, still rank third overall. Transferring out Harry Kane & Dele Alli in favour of DGW players could prove a risky move and with their big prices rises you might struggle bringing them back in. Chelsea look set to score goals as the season concludes, with the strongest DGW in the penultimate game week. With no double in DGW34, Chelsea players won't be drafted into many wildcard teams making their players great differentials for managers chasing their mini league leaders. Man City have a nice run of fixtures over the next few weeks and Kevin De Bruyne's return could bolster the attacking returns of Sergio Aguero, as they look to secure a Champions League spot. If KdB returns prior to DGW34, he could make Aguero a great triple captain option with fixtures against Chelsea and Newcastle. According to our statistics, Man United have the best double gameweek in week 34 but which of their attackers do you select? Marcus Rashford will be top of most lists but the return of Wayne Rooney could make him subject to rotation. Anthony Martial will get the minutes but will he produce enough to outscore the likes of in-form Harry Kane in a single GW? The Baggies have done enough in recent weeks to pull all oranges (medium chance) despite their tough upcoming fixtures. If you're insistent on 15 DGW players for week 34 then you could look to them, but with so many good attackers to choose from it's hard to justify their inclusion. Leicester have a very important three fixtures on the horizon with Sunderland away followed by West Ham and Swansea at home. Recent form holds enough justification to remove Jamie Vardy in favour of a DGW striker, but transferring out Riyad Mahrez is surely a backwards step. Arsenal's poor attacking form and West Ham's tough fixture list puts them mid-table and will no doubt have those who skipped the intro questioning the legitimacy of the forecast. Both teams are looking to secure Champions League football, so have strong motivation to find the net. One thing we can take from this is that it may not be worth trebling up on Arsenal and West Ham attacking players like we've seen in several draft teams on Twitter and the /r/FantasyPL subreddit. Down at the bottom, Watford sit in 19th place, this will come as a surprise to many. The Hornet's rank last (20th) for home goalscoring form with just three goals in their last five and 17th on away goalscoring form, with two goals in their last five on the road. Odion Ighalo is getting a lot of consideration as he features in both double gameweeks, but it's important to remember he's only scored once in his last ten matches.