Dec 14

Fantasy Premier League Attacking Analysis For Gameweek 37

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Welcome back to another Fantasy Premier League Attacking Analysis For Gameweek 36. This week Daniel Richardson returns to analyse which teams have the highest chance of finding the back of the net this weekend. After Leicester City were crowned this season's Premier League champions due to Tottenham only coming away from Stamford Bridge with a point, the rest of Gameweek 36 had a few upsets with Southampton beating City and also Liverpool's defeat to Swansea. However, it still wasn't bad for goals with there being 31 in total, and this Gameweek sees a few teams with double fixtures.    We are going to use recent goalscoring form, opposition defensive statistics and the bookies odds to determine which teams have the greatest chance of scoring.

Recent Team Goalscoring Form:

The table below displays the top seven teams based on average goals per game (GPG). It also highlights how many of each team's goals were scored at home compared to away. The data taken from last four Premier League matches.
Team Home Away GPG
Southampton 7 5 3.0
West Ham 6 5 2.75
Tottenham 4 6 2.5
Manchester City 4 6 2.5
Leicester 6 3 2.25
Liverpool 6 3 2.25
Newcastle 5 2 1.75
Southampton sit top of this table for the first time so far this season after put four past Man City in the last Gameweek. The Saints have scored twelve in their last four and eight of those have been in their last two matches (vs Aston Villa, Man City). Both the top two in this table seem to prefer playing at home with West Ham only a goal behind Southampton in this week's table. The Hammers are another side in good goalscoring form after scoring six in their last two. Tottenham, Man City, Leicester and Liverpool all failed to grab three points last weekend and so will be looking to redeem themselves in GW37. Newcastle sneak into this chart due to their solid form in recent games, they haven't lost any of their last four and have scored seven in the process.

Team Odds To Score In Gameweek 37:

The table below displays the top seven teams based on the bookies odds to score anytime in Gameweek 37. The odds have been converted to an implied chance percentage.
Team To Score
West Ham (vs. Swa) 69.23%
Liverpool (vs Wat) 66.67%
Leicester 60.00%
Newcastle 60.00%
Tottenham 54.55%
Man United (vs Nor) 52.38%
Bournemouth 52.38%
The teams with their fixture in brackets have two fixtures in GW37, but with West Ham being in fine goalscoring form they've been given a reasonably high percentage chance by the bookies to score two or more goals. Given they scored three in each of their last two.   Despite their poor performance last week, Liverpool are expected to put a few goals past Watford. The Hornets have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game in their last four outings. Newcastle are joint with Leicester in this table due to their run of good form and with them facing Villa who have been renowned for their bad defensive displays this season, the bookies expect some goals in that game. Man United and Norwich clash this week and with United averaging 1.0 goal per game and Norwich 0.75, that may be a low scoring match.

Who Faces The Worst Defence In Gameweek 37:

The table below displays the top seven teams based on opposition defensive form. It highlights the opposing team's average number of goals conceded (GC) and big chances conceded (BCC) per game. The data taken from last four Premier League matches.
Team Vs. GC BCC
CRY sto 3.25 2.75
new AVL 2.5 2.5
wba BOU 2.25 1.5
WHU swa 2.0 2.75
SUN/LIV che 1.75 2.25
mnu/wat NOR 1.75 1.5
The top four in this table haven't changed with Stoke sitting top due to their poor average of over three goals per game conceded in their last four matches. They face Crystal Palace who also had a bad defensive period in the season but seem more solid in recent games. Relegated side Villa are conceding an average of 2.5 goals and big chances with Bournemouth not far behind on the goals conceded. Bournemouth's opposition this week West Brom, also feature in this table, so there may be quite a few goals in that match.   Chelsea have conceded seven goals in their last four matches and have only won one of these resulting in them appearing on the poor defences table this week. Norwich's dodgy defence may be the thinking behind the bookies giving United such a high chance of scoring two or more goals when the two face each other this weekend.