Welcome to another Fantasy MLS Tips article. Guy Sanchez picks out his top five fantasy tips for Gameweek 1.
Ladies and gentleman, here we go again. It's been what...ten minutes since the last season ended? No matter, the MLS is back again to start a new year, and this year we have chances to play MLS daily fantasy football through DraftKings and Mondogoal - so we'll be adding pricing selections for both sites in these articles. Do you deserve such excellent coverage? Of course you do, and we're here to give it to you.
Let's get one thing clear though as we start out - Opening Day is anything but predictable. There will be results that shock us, and some results will fall right in line with what we had thought all along. What I'm trying to say is that even though this is a game of skill - you will need a fair bit of luck to snag that differential player on GW1 that nobody else thought of.
FIXTURES AND ODDS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE: ALL GAMES ARE ON SUNDAY, MARCH 6 THIS WEEK
Let's look at this graphic for a second. First of all, we see that LA are the overwhelming favorites this weekend, but FC Dallas and NYRB are also heavily favored. But since this is the first game of the year, we have to look beyond the numbers and try to find areas where the bookmakers might have been too conservative with their picks. First off Orlando is even money against RSL. I think that's being too kind to RSL to start the year. RSL played last week in Mexico for a CONCACAF Champions League match, and the second leg fell in Utah in the middle of this week. RSL are going to be more than a bit road weary, and a trip from Utah to Orlando is nothing to turn up your nose to.
Also Portland open up their championship defense against the team that they beat last year. Portland at home are getting better than even money? I have a hard time thinking that a Portland team that only managed to lose one key player in the off-season (Jorge Villafana) aren't going to start the year off at home on a good note. Sure, Columbus will be fired up for this game, but Portland at Providence Park hold a distinct advantage over any visitors.
Let's try to make some sense of all of this and get you some solid tips to start the year.
TIP 1 � GIOVINCO IS STILL WORTH THE PRICE
Giovinco:
Mondogoal ($13.8), DraftKings ($9,400)
Sebastian Giovinco will cost you nearly 20% of your total budget in DK, and he's going to cost nearly 14% of your budget in Mondogoal. But can you justify those prices with a player from a team that's +370 in their odds to win their match? I say yes. Giovinco, in my opinion, put in the greatest performance the MLS has ever seen in his last campaign. And with
Jozy Altidore being sidelined for the first couple of weeks of this year, all of the scoring is going to fall to Giovinco. It's not like his price to start the year should be a surprise: he did finish off last year with 22 goals and 16 assists. If you're just looking for a proven shot-taker to stock your lineup in the first match of the year, you can't do better than this guy.
TIP 2 � TAKE ADVANTAGE OF RSL'S TRAVEL WOES
As I mentioned above, RSL are going a very long way in their opening match. And Orlando finished up their last preseason match with a cool 6-1 victory - so they're in form.
Kaka has been tossing dimes in preseason like nobody's business, and
Cyle Larin will be looking to avoid a sophomore slump at the helm for the Lion's attack. Really, in the case of Larin, how much more could you want than a player like Kaka at your back giving you service in the box all game? And for a sneaky pick, don't overlook
Seb Hines who scored four goals in Orlando's last friendly. That's not bad for a defender.
Kaka:
Mondogoal ($9.0), DraftKings ($7,600)
Larin:
Mondogoal ($7.7), DraftKings ($6,700)
Hines:
Mondogoal ($6.8), DraftKings ($2,700)
TIP 3 � LA WILL PROBABLY SCORE, BUT WHO GETS THE GOALS?
People are going to be very bullish on LA to start the year (and the odds above obviously show that). But that doesn't mean that picking the points earners will be easy. LA have loaded up on more aging talent during their off-season, and that's going to mean an influx of more players that are used to being the key man in their younger years. The problem for fantasy players is if these players can all play nice together in the sandbox like good little boys. By all measures,
Giovani Dos Santos is primed to be the future of this organization. He's an international player in his prime that is absolutely loved by the Latino community he plays in. But he surrounded by the likes of
Robbie Keane and
Steven Gerrard who will want to get their own shots in without question. In a perfect world, LA fans would like to see their team score six goals a game with each of their three superstars getting their fair share. But in the real world, LA will probably cruise to more three goal games than most teams, but it's going to be tricky landing on the Type A personality that decides to take all the shots on any given day.
Dos Santos:
Mondogoal ($7.6), DraftKings ($7,100)
Keane: Mondogoal ($13.8), DraftKings ($8,000)
Gerrard:
Mondogoal ($10.2), DraftKings ($5,800)
TIP 4 � PORTLAND v. COLUMBUS IS BEST BET FOR RISK/REWARD
I've said this before in other forums, but it bears true here as well: Portland opening the year against Columbus is a cheap ploy to stir up controversy for TV ratings. This is as honest a criticism as I can give. There's no reason for Columbus to have to travel to the home of the team they lost to in the championship match so that they can relive how hard that loss was for them. This match is about TV ratings and a manufactured story line alone. In reality, if you wanted a truly great match, Portland should've opened against Seattle or Dallas and Columbus should've been rewarded a chance to open up at home against NYRB or some other foe from their playoff run. What you're going to get in this match though is a lot of frustration and hard tackles and possible red cards.
What that means though is that if you pick the wrong players, you could end up being severely shorted on points for a premature exit from the match. But if you pick well, you could see a high scoring affair that greatly favors one side. My bet is squarely on Portland for this match, but Columbus have the manpower to cause an upset.
Possible players to consider:
Diego Valeri:
Mondogoal ($11.8), DraftKings ($6,800)
Kei Kamara: Mondogoal ($13.9), DraftKings ($9,800)
Fanendo Adi:
Mondogoal ($9.1), DraftKings ($6,600)
TIP 5 � DALLAS REALLY ARE AS STACKED AS YOU THINK THEY ARE
Dallas are looking to be a very, very scary team this year. Not only have the parted ways with
Blas Perez, a player that really didn't have pace or endurance at the end of the year, but they've really loaded up on speed and then more speed.
Max Urruti is probably a player to look out for this year. He left Portland because room was needed to make
Lucas Melano a more permanent fixture; but Portland's loss is Dallas' gain. Urruti is a player so full of speed that it's almost scary to think how badly they're going to outrun opponents by pairing him with
Fabian Castillo. And let's not forget, the best keeper that you haven't heard of yet,
Jesse Gonzalez, is now a cemented fixture in goal for Dallas as well. If things start to go right for Dallas, they're really going to push the needle on how many goals they can score.
Max Urruti: Mondogoal ($5.4), DraftKings ($4,700)
Fabian Castillo:
Mondogoal ($8.6), DraftKings ($6,900)
Jesse Gonzalez:
Mondogoal ($6.5), DraftKings ($4,200)
THANKS FOR READING OUR FIRST MLS COLUMN OF THE YEAR. WE HOPE TO SEE YOU IN THE GPP'S THIS WEEKEND.