Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week's Premier League fixtures.
All data is from the first four gameweeks of the 2020-21 season and the information in this article is correct as of 20 October 2020.
The forward look - Gameweek 6:
| Aston Villa | v | Leeds |
| 40% | Win % | 33% |
| 29% | Clean sheet % | 25% |
| Watkins (40%) | Anytime goalscorer | Bamford (33%) |
| Watkins (5) | Most big chances (last 5 GWs) | Bamford (3) |
| McGinn (3) | Most big chances created(last 5 GWs) | Harrison (2) |
| Grealish (25.6) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Dallas 28.5 |
| 11 | Team big chances(last 5 GWs) | 9 |
| 5 (1st fewest) | Big chances conceded(last 5 GWs) | 9 |
| West Ham | v | Man City |
| 14% | Win % | 74% |
| 10% | Clean sheet % | 40% |
| Antonio (39%) | Anytime goalscorer | Aguero (60%) |
| Antonio (4) | Most big chances (last 5 GWs) | Foden (3) |
| Cresswell (2) | Most big chances created(last 5 GWs) | Aguero (2) |
| Antonio (26.5) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | De Bryune (21.5) |
| 10 | Team big chances(last 5 GWs) | 8 |
| 7 (3rd fewest) | Big chances conceded(last 5 GWs) | 11 |
| Fulham | v | Crystal Palace |
| 37% | Win % | 39% |
| 31% | Clean sheet % | 33% |
| Mitrovic (40%) | Anytime goalscorer | Batshuayi (33%) |
| Mitrovic (4) | Most big chances (last 5 GWs) | Zaha (4) |
| Mitrovic (1) | Most big chances created(last 5 GWs) | Townsend (3) |
| Mitrovic (29.1) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Zaha (29.2) |
| 6 (3rd fewest) | Team big chances(last 5 GWs) | 7 |
| 13 (3rd most) | Big chances conceded(last 5 GWs) | 10 |
| Man United | v | Chelsea |
| 40% | Win % | 37% |
| 25% | Clean sheet % | 25% |
| Rashford (37%) | Anytime goalscorer | Werner (45%) |
| Fernandes (3) | Most big chances (last 5 GWs) | Jorginho (4) |
| Fernandes (2) | Most big chances created(last 5 GWs) | Werner (1) |
| Fernandes (30.7) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Jorginho (29.1) |
| 7 | Team big chances(last 5 GWs) | 10 |
| 15 (1st most) | Big chances conceded(last 5 GWs) | 8 |
| Liverpool | v | Sheffield United |
| 1.20 | Win % | 9% |
| 53% | Clean sheet % | 7% |
| Salah (71%) | Anytime goalscorer | McBurnie (23%) |
| Mane (7) | Most big chances (last 5 GWs) | McBurnie (2) |
| Salah (4) | Most big chances created(last 5 GWs) | Baldock (2) |
| Salah (45.0) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Ramsdale (23.5) |
| 18 (2nd most) | Team big chances(last 5 GWs) | 7 |
| 13 (3rd most) | Big chances conceded(last 5 GWs) | 8 |
| Southampton | v | Everton |
| 35% | Win % | 41% |
| 23% | Clean sheet % | 29% |
| Ings (52%) | Anytime goalscorer | Calvert-Lewin (44%) |
| Adams (5) | Most big chances (last 5 GWs) | Calvert-Lewin (8) |
| Adams (2) | Most big chances created(last 5 GWs) | Rodriguez (5) |
| Adams (27.5) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Calvert-Lewin (34.6) |
| 9 | Team big chances(last 5 GWs) | 16 (3rd most) |
| 9 | Big chances conceded(last 5 GWs) | 8 |
| Wolves | v | Newcastle |
| 58% | Win % | 20% |
| 48% | Clean sheet % | 23% |
| Jimenez (50%) | Anytime goalscorer | Wilson (31%) |
| Jimenez (4) | Most big chances (last 5 GWs) | Wilson (7) |
| Podence (2) | Most big chances created(last 5 GWs) | Saint-Maxim (2) |
| Saiss (25.6) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Wilson (31.5) |
| 7 | Team big chances(last 5 GWs) | 7 |
| 9 | Big chances conceded(last 5 GWs) | 8 |
| Arsenal | v | Leicester |
| 52% | Win % | 28% |
| 33% | Clean sheet % | 18% |
| Aubameyang (58%) | Anytime goalscorer | Vardy (48%) |
| Lacazette (5) | Most big chances (last 5 GWs) | Vardy (6) |
| Aubameyang (2) | Most big chances created(last 5 GWs) | Castagne (1) |
| Leno (23.7) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Vardy (28.5) |
| 10 | Team big chances(last 5 GWs) | 10 |
| 10 | Big chances conceded(last 5 GWs) | 8 |
| Brighton | v | West Brom |
| 55% | Win % | 25% |
| 38% | Clean sheet % | 20% |
| Maupay (49%) | Anytime goalscorer | Ahearne-Grant (28%) |
| Maupay (5) | Most big chances (last 5 GWs) | Bartley (1) |
| Trossard (2) | Most big chances created(last 5 GWs) | Furlong (1) |
| Maupay (32.3) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Johnstone (24.0) |
| 10 | Team big chances(last 5 GWs) | 1 (1st fewest) |
| 9 | Big chances conceded(last 5 GWs) | 14 (2nd most) |
| Burnley | v | Tottenham |
| 18% | Win % | 62% |
| 18% | Clean sheet % | 44% |
| Wood (33%) | Anytime goalscorer | Kane (52%) |
| Wood (4) | Most big chances (last 5 GWs) | Son (7) |
| Westwood (1) | Most big chances created(last 5 GWs) | Kane (7) |
| Pope (19.0) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Kane (44.2) |
| 4 (2nd fewest) | Team big chances(last 5 GWs) | 20 (1st most) |
| 5 (2nd fewest) | Big chances conceded(last 5 GWs) | 8 |
Braveheart's GW5 review:
GW5 was my first green arrow since GW2, despite taking a four point hit in the end due to the De Bryune injury. I ended up with 74 points and a green arrow up to 1.1m. Things were looking quite bad until the Spurs match, as Son and Kane combined earned 45 points.
How did my team do?
- Ramsdale v Fulham (h) - 3 points
- Alexander-Arnold v Everton (a) - 1 point
- Taylor v West Brom (a) - 5 points
- Justin v Aston Villa (h) - 2 points
- Salah (vice captain) v Everton (a) - 7 points
- Son v West Ham (h) - 13 points
- Barnes v Aston Villa (h) - 2 points
- Pereira v Burnley (h) - 3 points
- Kane (captain) v West Ham (h) - 32 points
- Calvert-Lewin - Liverpool (h) - 6 points
- Mitrovic v Sheffield United (a) - 0 points
Son to De Bruyne for a hit immediately re-paid itself, but Werner to Kane was a bit sideways in hindsight as both ended up with 16 points apiece. However, I'm still glad I made the move as Werner was, until last week, being played out wide and he was less of a threat there. I will monitor how he does against Man United at the weekend but I think Kane remains the better long-term premium striker due to his fixtures, form, talisman status and effective ownership.
I'm still considering when best to use my wildcard, for now there are a few players on my "out" list:
- Ramsdale - Sheffield United are looking poor defensively and there fixtures for the foreseeable as very poor, but I hate wasting free transfers on goalies unless necessary if there are improvements to be made elsewhere,
- Pereira - West Brom are the least creative team in the Premier League so far this season, and of my attacking players Pereira has the lowest xFPL so his time in my team is at an end this week,
- Barnes - Leicester do not look the same team with Vardy and Barnes has only returned in one match this season, against one of the worst teams in the league defensively. Grealish, Zaha, Foden and, if spending a little bit more, Rodriguez are all far better options in the mid-price midfield bracket but he is taking a good number of shots so hopefully some of those shots are converted before I pull the trigger on transferring Barnes out of my team,
- Mitrovic - Fulham are one of the least creative teams in the Premier League so I expect I'll be transferring Mitrovic out of my team in the not too distant future however they have Palace and West Brom at home in the next two gameweeks so I think I will persevere with Mitrovic until after the West Brom match (to be replaced by Maupay or Antonio).
It is between Grealish and Rodriguez as to who will be my transfer this week (whichever one I decide to not bring in this week, could very well end up in my team next week for Barnes). Right now I'm edging towards Grealish for Pereria as (compared to Rodriguez) he is cheaper, is less highly owned, has a higher xFPL per appearance this season, is taking more shots, is likely on penalties for Villa (with Wesley out) and their fixtures are about to become extremely favourable.
Braveheart's GW6 reveal:
If I make that transfer (I will confirm on Twitter), my team for this week is as follows:
- Ramsdale v Liverpool (a)
- Alexander-Arnold v Sheffield United (h)
- Mitchell v Fulham (a)
- Taylor v Tottenham (h)
- Salah (captain) v Sheffield United (h)
- Son v Burnley (a)
- Grealish v Leeds (h)
- Barnes v Arsenal (a)
- Kane (vice captain) v Burnley (a)
- Calvert-Lewin v Southampton (a)
- Mitrovic v Crystal Palace (h)
For my captaincy, I can't see past Salah this week. He has the form, fixture and is at home. Kane is a very able alternative and both players are comfortably the best options.
The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW6. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!
