Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets.
Last year Braveheart, an FPL veteran with 3 top 5k finishes in the past five years, hosted the FPLbet podcast which included a fixture-by-fixture forward look. That forward look returns in article form for the 2020-21 season. For the first three gameweeks we will look back at data from last year (as there are four teams who will have played only one match and so there will be statistical anomalies as it is too small a sample size) but from GW4 onwards, we will be using only data from 2020-21.
Braveheart's forward look - GW5
Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week's Premier League fixtures.
All data is from the first four gameweeks of the 2020-21 season and the information in this article is correct as of 14 October 2020.
The forward look - Gameweek 5:
| Everton | v | Liverpool |
| 27% | Win % | 56% |
| 17% | Clean sheet % | 29% |
| Calvert-Lewin (39%) | Anytime goalscorer | Salah (60%) |
| Calvert-Lewin (6) | Most big chances (first four gameweeks) | Salah (4) |
| Rodriguez (4) | Most big chances created(first four gameweeks) | Salah (2) |
| Calvert-Lewin (26.9) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Salah (36.6) |
| 13 (3rd most) | Team big chances(first four gameweeks) | 14 (2nd most) |
| 4 (1st fewest) | Team big chances conceded(first four gameweeks) | 10 |
| Chelsea | v | Southampton |
| 69% | Win % | 15% |
| 40% | Clean sheet % | 13% |
| Werner (58%) | Anytime goalscorer | Ings (40%) |
| Jorginho (4) | Most big chances (first four gameweeks) | Adams (4) |
| Mount (1) | Most big chances created(first four gameweeks) | Adams (1) |
| Jorginho (26.1) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Ings (21.2) |
| 8 | Team big chances(first four gameweeks) | 7 |
| 6 | Team big chances conceded(first four gameweeks) | 7 |
| Man City | v | Arsenal |
| 71% | Win % | 15% |
| 38% | Clean sheet % | 10% |
| Sterling (56%) | Anytime goalscorer | Aubameyang (40%) |
| De Bryune (2) | Most big chances (first four gameweeks) | Lacazette (5) |
| De Bryune (1) | Most big chances created(first four gameweeks) | Willian (2) |
| De Bryune (21.5) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Bellerin (19.3) |
| 5 | Team big chances(first four gameweeks) | 9 |
| 10 | Team big chances conceded(first four gameweeks) | 7 |
| Newcastle | v | Man United |
| 20% | Win % | 62% |
| 17% | Clean sheet % | 40% |
| Wilson (33%) | Anytime goalscorer | Cavani, Rashford (40%) |
| Wilson (6) | Most big chances (first four gameweeks) | Fernandes (2) |
| Shelvey (1) | Most big chances created(first four gameweeks) | Fernandes (2) |
| Wilson (25.7) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Fernandes (19.5) |
| 6 | Team big chances(first four gameweeks) | 5 |
| 6 | Team big chances conceded(first four gameweeks) | 14 (1st most) |
| Sheffield United | v | Fulham |
| 50% | Win % | 26% |
| 41% | Clean sheet % | 27% |
| McBurnie (39%) | Anytime goalscorer | Mitrovic (39%) |
| Lundstram (2) | Most big chances (first four gameweeks) | Mitrovic (2) |
| Baldock (1) | Most big chances created(first four gameweeks) | Mitrovic (1) |
| Ramsdale (18.9) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Mitrovic (21.1) |
| 4 (3rd fewest) | Team big chances(first four gameweeks) | 4 (3rd fewest) |
| 6 | Team big chances conceded(first four gameweeks) | 10 |
| Crystal Palace | v | Brighton |
| 39% | Win % | 36% |
| 33% | Clean sheet % | 31% |
| Benteke (29%) | Anytime goalscorer | Maupay (39%) |
| Zaha (3) | Most big chances (first four gameweeks) | Maupay (5) |
| Townsend (3) | Most big chances created(first four gameweeks) | Trossard (2) |
| Zaha (22.4) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Maupay (27.5) |
| 6 | Team big chances(first four gameweeks) | 10 |
| 10 | Team big chances conceded(first four gameweeks) | 8 |
| Tottenham | v | West Ham |
| 64% | Win % | 17% |
| 38% | Clean sheet % | 14% |
| Kane (56%) | Anytime goalscorer | Antonio (37%) |
| Son (6) | Most big chances (first four gameweeks) | Antonio (4) |
| Kane (6) | Most big chances created(first four gameweeks) | Cresswell (2) |
| Kane (36.1) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Antonio (23.3) |
| 17 (1st most) | Team big chances(first four gameweeks) | 9 |
| 7 | Team big chances conceded(first four gameweeks) | 4 (1st fewest) |
| Leicester | v | Aston Villa |
| 56% | Win % | 25% |
| 33% | Clean sheet % | 18% |
| Vardy (58%) | Anytime goalscorer | Watkins (36%) |
| Vardy (6) | Most big chances (first four gameweeks) | Watkins (5) |
| Praet (1) | Most big chances created(first four gameweeks) | McGinn (3) |
| Vardy (28.5) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Grealish (20.7) |
| 10 | Team big chances(first four gameweeks) | 10 |
| 7 | Team big chances conceded(first four gameweeks) | 5 (3rd fewest) |
| West Brom | v | Burnley |
| 42% | Win % | 33% |
| 33% | Clean sheet % | 29% |
| Austin (31%) | Anytime goalscorer | Wood (36%) |
| Bartley (1) | Most big chances (first four gameweeks) | Wood (2) |
| Furlong (1) | Most big chances created(first four gameweeks) | Vydra (1) |
| Johnstone (19.0) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Wood (13.6) |
| 1 (1st fewest) | Team big chances(first four gameweeks) | 2 (2nd fewest) |
| 12 (2nd most) | Team big chances conceded(first four gameweeks) | 5 (3rd fewest) |
| Leeds United | V | Wolves |
| 41% | Win % | 35% |
| 33% | Clean sheet % | 29% |
| Bamford (32%) | Anytime goalscorer | Jimenez (40%) |
| Bamford (2) | Most big chances (first four gameweeks) | Jimenez (4) |
| Ayling (2) | Most big chances created(first four gameweeks) | Podence (2) |
| Dallas (24.2) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Jimenez (20.4) |
| 8 | Team big chances(first four gameweeks) | 6 |
| 8 | Team big chances conceded(first four gameweeks) | 8 |
Braveheart's GW4 Review
GW4 was another poor week with a big red arrow this time as I did not have any of the top performers (Rodriguez, Son, Kane, Grealish, Watkins, etc.). Salah's brace against Aston Villa prevented total embarrassment as I ended up with 38 points and a red arrow down to 1.3m in overall rank. If I'm not able to turn the form around in GW5, I suspect I may be reaching for my wildcard soon but for now I'm sticking with my plan.
How did my team do?
- Ramsdale v Arsenal (a) - 2 points
- Alexander-Arnold v Aston Villa (a) - minus 1 point
- Taylor v Newcastle (a) - 1 point
- Walker-Peters v West Brom (H) - 5 points
- Salah v Aston Villa (a) - 13 points
- De Bryune (captain) v Leeds (a) - 4 points
- Barnes v West Ham (h) - 2 points
- Pereira v Southampton (a) - 2 points
- Werner (vice captain) v Crystal Palace (h) - 2 points
- Calvert-Lewin v Brighton (h) - 6 points
- Mitrovic v Wolves (a) - 2 points
My transfer of Calvert-Lewin for Martial paid immediate dividends as the incoming player scored and the outgoing player was sent off. But that was a rare plus point in an otherwise poor week. I have a few players on my "out" list:
- Ramsdale - Sheffield United are looking poor defensively and from GW6 until GW10 their fixtures are not great, but I hate wasting free transfers on goalies unless necessary if there are improvements to be made elsewhere.
- Pereira - West Brom are the least creative team in the Premier League so far this season, but they do have decent looking fixtures in the short-term so I will prioritise other fires.
- Werner - he is dropping in price, playing very wide and has not been as involved as I would like. I made an early move to bring in Kane for Werner towards the start of the international break (with my wildcard in reserve in case it was needed if an injury crisis were to emerge).
- Mitrovic - Fulham are one of the least creative teams in the Premier League so I expect I'll be transferring Mitrovic out of my team (depending on fires elsewhere) in GW6, 7 or 8 (to be replaced by Maupay or Antonio).
Braveheart's GW4 Reveal
As I've already made my transfer, my starting 11 for this week is as follows:
- Ramsdale v Fulham (h)
- Alexander-Arnold v Everton (a)
- Taylor v West Brom (a)
- Justin v Aston Villa (h)
- Salah (vice captain) v Everton (a)
- De Bryune v Arsenal (h)
- Barnes v Aston Villa (h)
- Pereira v Burnley (h)
- Kane (captain) v West Ham (h)
- Calvert-Lewin - Liverpool (h)
- Mitrovic v Sheffield United (a)
For my captaincy, it was between Harry Kane and Mo Salah. Both of these players are taking penalties for their team, have form and their team are amongst the most creative in the first four gameweeks of this season. It is a coin flip between the pair really but I currently expect to give my armband to Kane as they are playing at home against a weaker opponent on paper (though both Everton and West Ham have jointly conceded the fewest big chances so far this season).
The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. The only late moves I'll make are if a few of my players are confirmed injured. At the time of writing, De Bryune is an injury doubt. But as I have a full bench I'm hopeful of being able to persevere for this week if he fails to feature - but I would definitely avoid making him my captain or vice captain.
All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW5. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!
