Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets.
Last year Braveheart, an FPL veteran with 3 top 5k finishes in the past five years, hosted the FPLbet podcast which included a fixture-by-fixture forward look. That forward look returns in article form for the 2020-21 season. For the first three gameweeks we will look back at data from last year (as there are four teams who will have played only one match and so there will be statistical anomalies as it is too small a sample size) but from GW4 onwards, we will be using only data from 2020-21. All data and information in this article is correct as of 30 September 2020.
The forward look - Gameweek 4:
| Chelsea | v | Crystal Palace |
| 71% | Win % | 14% |
| 45% | Clean sheet % | 12% |
| Werner56% | Anytime goalscorer | Batshuayi27% |
| Jorginho(2) | Most big chances (first three gameweeks) | Zaha(3) |
| Mount(1) | Most big chances created(first three gameweeks) | Townsend(3) |
| 5 | Team big chances(first three gameweeks) | 6 |
| 6 | Team big chances conceded(by team in last three) | 7 |
| Everton | v | Brighton |
| 59% | Win % | 20% |
| 40% | Clean sheet % | 18% |
| Calvert-Lewin48% | Anytime goalscorer | Maupay32% |
| Calvert-Lewin(5) | Most big chances (first three gameweeks) | Maupay(4) |
| Rodriguez(3) | Most big chances created(first three gameweeks) | Trossard(2) |
| 9(3rd) | Team big chances(first three gameweeks) | 9(3rd) |
| 3 | Team big chances conceded(by team in last three) | 4 |
| Leeds | v | Man City |
| 12% | Win % | 77% |
| 8% | Clean sheet % | 40% |
| Bamford29% | Anytime goalscorer | Sterling60% |
| Bamford(1) | Most big chances (first three gameweeks) | De Bruyne(2) |
| Harrison(1) | Most big chances created(first three gameweeks) | De Bruyne(1) |
| 3 | Team big chances(first three gameweeks) | 5 |
| 8(2nd) | Team big chances conceded(by team in last three) | 5 |
| Newcastle | v | Burnley |
| 42% | Win % | 32% |
| 36% | Clean sheet % | 31% |
| Wilson38% | Anytime goalscorer | Wood35% |
| Wilson(3) | Most big chances (first three gameweeks) | Wood(2) |
| Almiron(1) | Most big chances created(first three gameweeks) | Vydra(1) |
| 3 | Team big chances(first three gameweeks) | 2 |
| 6 | Team big chances conceded(by team in last three) | 2 |
| Leicester | v | West Ham |
| 62% | Win % | 20% |
| 38% | Clean sheet % | 15% |
| Vardy60% | Anytime goalscorer | Antonio33% |
| Vardy(5) | Most big chances (first three gameweeks) | Antonio(3) |
| Praet(1) | Most big chances created(first three gameweeks) | Masuaku(2) |
| 9(3rd) | Team big chances(first three gameweeks) | 6 |
| 4 | Team big chances conceded(by team in last three) | 3 |
| Southampton | v | West Brom |
| 59% | Win % | 21% |
| 38% | Clean sheet % | 18% |
| Ings58% | Anytime goalscorer | Robinson25% |
| Ings(3) | Most big chances (first three gameweeks) | Bartley(1) |
| Adams(1) | Most big chances created(first three gameweeks) | Furlong(1) |
| 6 | Team big chances(first three gameweeks) | 1 |
| 7 | Team big chances conceded(by team in last three) | 11(1st) |
| Arsenal | v | Sheffield United |
| 65% | Win % | 15% |
| 48% | Clean sheet % | 18% |
| Aubameyang58% | Anytime goalscorer | McBurnie25% |
| Lacazette(5) | Most big chances (first three gameweeks) | Lundstram(2) |
| Willian(2) | Most big chances created(first three gameweeks) | Baldock(1) |
| 8 | Team big chances(first three gameweeks) | 4 |
| 7 | Team big chances conceded(by team in last three) | 5 |
| Wolves | v | Fulham |
| 67% | Win % | 14% |
| 52% | Clean sheet % | 18% |
| Jimenez53% | Anytime goalscorer | Mitrovic31% |
| Jimenez(3) | Most big chances (first three gameweeks) | Mitrovic(2) |
| Podence(2) | Most big chances created(first three gameweeks) | Anguissa(1) |
| 4 | Team big chances(first three gameweeks) | 3 |
| 7 | Team big chances conceded(by team in last three) | 8(2nd) |
| Man United | v | Tottenham |
| 54% | Win % | 25% |
| 35% | Clean sheet % | 21% |
| Rashford40% | Anytime goalscorer | Kane40% |
| Fernandes(1) | Most big chances (first three gameweeks) | Kane(3) |
| Fernandes(1) | Most big chances created(first three gameweeks) | Kane(5) |
| 4 | Team big chances(first three gameweeks) | 10(1st) |
| 7 | Team big chances conceded(by team in last three) | 6 |
| Aston Villa | v | Liverpool |
| 10% | Win % | 77% |
| 10% | Clean sheet % | 50% |
| Watkins27% | Anytime goalscorer | Salah67% |
| Grealish(1) | Most big chances (first three gameweeks) | Mane(4) |
| McGinn(2) | Most big chances created(first three gameweeks) | Alexander-Arnold(2) |
| 4 | Team big chances(first three gameweeks) | 10(1st) |
| 1 | Team big chances conceded(by team in last three) | 4 |
Braveheart's GW3 Review
GW3 was back to earth with a bit of a bump but luckily it was one of those gameweeks for a lot of managers. The average points were 43 and so I missed that by a couple of points, finishing with 41 points but unfortunately that was a red arrow to 598k. I'm still pleased with my start but hoping to get a green arrow in GW4 heading into the first break of the season.
How did my team do?
- Ramsdale v Leeds (h) - 4 points
- Alexander-Arnold v Arsenal (h) - 7 points
- Taylor v Southampton (h) - 2 points
- Walker-Peters v Burnley (a) - 6 points
- Salah v Arsenal (h) - 5 points
- De Bryune (vice captain) v Leicester (h) - 2 points
- Barnes v Man City (a) - 2 points
- Pereira v Chelsea (h) - 5 points
- Werner (captain) v West Brom (a) - 4 points
- Martial v Brighton (a) - 2 points
- Mitrovic v Aston Villa (h) - 2 points
Werner, Martial and Mitrovic combined for a total of 1 in xG in the last gameweek (of that Werner was 0.7, Mitrovic was 0.2 and Martial was 0.1). Between them they took 11 shots, but of those only one was by Martial. Taking this information into account, I'd say that Martial is the player I'm most likely to be transferring out of my team in GW. I'm happy with the other players in my team except for Werner but I think I will give him the next week at the very least (he has taken more shots in the box than Vardy, Ings and Lacazette so should be due returns soon, surely).
I do not like that he played out wide against WBA (particularly as most of the Chelsea attack went through James on the opposite side of the pitch. The return of Chilwell might help get Werner a lot more service - fingers crossed!
If I decide to remove Martial, I'd likely be bringing in Calvert-Lewin or Jimenez for obvious reasons. Calvert-Lewin is the one of the in-form player at the moment and Jimenez is embarking on an excellent run of fixtures. Please see my twitter where I will confirm my move. But I will be making one of those moves or saving my transfer as it is always good to have two transfers going into an international break.
Braveheart's GW4 reveal
Subject to my transfer being made, my starting 11 for this week is as follows:
- Ramsdale v Arsenal (a)
- Alexander-Arnold v Aston Villa (a)
- Taylor v Newcastle (a)
- Walker-Peters v West Brom (H)
- Salah v Aston Villa (a)
- De Bryune (captain) v Leeds (a)
- Barnes v West Ham (h)
- Pereira v Southampton (a)
- Werner (vice captain) v Crystal Palace (h)
- Martial v Tottenham (h)
- Mitrovic v Wolves (a)
For my captaincy, I have strongly considered Salah, KDB, Werner and, if I transfer one of them in, Calvert-Lewin and Jimenez. Due to having the "easiest fixture" (in terms of win percentage from the forward look), I have my armband on De Bruyne currently.
Leeds are joint second for big changes conceded so far this season. They've been involved in a few goal fests already and if that happens again then I think De Bruyne will be involved.
The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. This week I will update to confirm my transfer.
