Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets.
Last year Braveheart, an FPL veteran with 3 top 5k finishes in the past five years, hosted the FPLbet podcast which included a fixture-by-fixture forward look. That forward look returns in article form for the 2020-21 season. For the first three gameweeks we will look back at data from last year (as there are four teams who will have played only one match and so there will be statistical anomalies as it is too small a sample size) but from GW4 onwards, we will be using only data from 2020-21. All data and information in this article is correct as of 23 September 2020.
The forward look - Gameweek 3:
| Brighton | v | Man United |
| 21% | Win % | 57% |
| 20% | Clean sheet % | 40% |
| Maupay(17) | Most big chances (last season) | Rashford(29) |
| Gross(10) | Most big chances created(last season) | Rashford(9) |
| Crystal Palace | v | Everton |
| 26% | Win % | 49% |
| 27% | Clean sheet % | 38% |
| Ayew(11) | Most big chances (last season) | Calvert-Lewin(27) |
| Van Arnholt (5),Ayew (4) | Most big chances created(last season) | Richarlison(13) |
| West Brom | v | Chelsea |
| 12% | Win % | 74% |
| 13% | Clean sheet % | 48% |
| Robinson(1.7 shots in the box pg) | Most big chances (last season) | Abraham(32) |
| Pereira(2.8 key passes pg) | Most big chances created(last season) | Azpilicueta(9) |
| Burnley | v | Southampton |
| 31% | Win % | 44% |
| 27% | Clean sheet % | 36% |
| Wood(31) | Most big chances (last season) | Ings(22) |
| McNeill(12) | Most big chances created(last season) | Ward-Prowse(7) |
| Sheffield United | v | Leeds |
| 37% | Win % | 38% |
| 29% | Clean sheet % | 31% |
| McGoldrick(17) | Most big chances (last season) | Bamford(2.3 shots in the box pg) |
| Stevens(9) | Most big chances created(last season) | Hernandez(2.3 key passes pg) |
| Tottenham | v | Newcastle |
| 69% | Win % | 14% |
| 47% | Clean sheet % | 14% |
| Kane(20) | Most big chances (last season) | Almiron(11) |
| Son(12) | Most big chances created(last season) | Saint-Maxim(8) |
| Man City | v | Leicester |
| 78% | Win % | 9% |
| 42% | Clean sheet % | 8% |
| Jesus(34) | Most big chances (last season) | Vardy(36) |
| De Bryune(34) | Most big chances created(last season) | Vardy(12) |
| West Ham | v | Wolves |
| 26% | Win % | 50% |
| 27% | Clean sheet % | 38% |
| Antonio(22) | Most big chances (last season) | Jimenez(23) |
| Antonio(7) | Most big chances created(last season) | Jimenez(13) |
| Fulham | v | Aston Villa |
| 36% | Win % | 40% |
| 29% | Clean sheet % | 32% |
| Mitrovic(2.2 shots in the box pg) | Most big chances (last season) | Wesley (12),El Ghazi (10) |
| Cairney(1.9 key passes pg) | Most big chances created(last season) | Targett (9),Grealish (9) |
| Liverpool | v | Arsenal |
| 69% | Win % | 17% |
| 38% | Clean sheet % | 12% |
| Salah(30) | Most big chances (last season) | Aubameyang(28) |
| Alexander-Arnold(19) | Most big chances created(last season) | Willian(13) |
Braveheart's GW3 Review
I had a good GW2 although most of my big hitters failed to perform, it was my budget players who hauled resulting in 71 points and a green arrow up to 435k. This is a good start and I hope to keep the green arrows continuing.
How did my team do?
- Ramsdale v Aston Villa (a) - 2 points
- Alexander-Arnold v Chelsea (a) - 7 points
- Justin v Burnley (h) - 7 points
- Walker-Peters v Tottenham (h) - 3 points
- Salah v Chelsea (a) - 3 points
- Aubameyang (captain) v West Ham (h) - 10 points
- Barnes v Burnley (h) - 13 points
- Pereira v Everton (a) - 10 points
- Werner v Liverpool (h) - 2 points
- Martial (vice-captaincy) v Crystal Palace (h) - 2 points
- Mitrovic v Leeds (a) - 12 points
The move from Ings to Martial failed to pay off immediately but I think, on paper, it was still the right move. I intend to give Martial a few weeks to see if United can find some sort of form before considering him for the chop. Patience is key but there aren't too many places in my team where I'm considering transfers, except for the obvious one but more on that in the next section.
Braveheart's GW3 reveal:
This week I've made my move on Tuesday to avoid price rises and I made the obvious move. I sold Aubameyang and brought in De Bruyne.
With that move made, my starting 11 for this week is as follows:
- Ramsdale v Leeds (h)
- Alexander-Arnold v Arsenal (h)
- Taylor v Southampton (h)
- Walker-Peters v Burnley (a)
- Salah v Arsenal (h)
- De Bryune (vice captain) v Leicester (h)
- Barnes v Man City (a)
- Pereira v Chelsea (h)
- Werner (captain) v West Brom (a)
- Martial v Brighton (a)
- Mitrovic v Aston Villa (h)
For my captaincy, I have strongly considered Salah, KDB, Werner and Martial. I think any or all of them could haul. However, as West Brom have looked particularly leaky this season so far I have decided to give the armband to Werner. While Chelsea have not looked particularly great so far this season, I think this match is an opportunity for them to find some form and I think it is better to captain the player who faces the team I expect to concede the most goals in that week.
The above team is my current draft and I'm very keen on much of the team. The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates.
All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW3. But, most importantly, stay safe out there!
