Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week's Premier League fixtures.
All player data in this article is from the last six gameweeks. All data is correct as of 11 March 2021.
The forward look - GW28:
The forward look - Gameweek 28:
| Newcastle | v | Aston Villa |
| 26% | Win % | 52% |
| 22% | Clean sheet % | 38% |
| 31% | To score 2+ % | 50% |
| Willock (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Traore (4) |
| Fraser (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Watkins (3) |
| Shelvey (22.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Martinez (37.3) |
| 1.0 (second fewest) | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.29 (third fewest) |
| 1.88 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.43 |
| Leeds | v | Chelsea |
| 23% | Win % | 56% |
| 18% | Clean sheet % | 36% |
| 31% | To score 2+ % | 58% |
| Bamford (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Werner (8) |
| Raphinha (6) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Mount (3) |
| Raphinha (44.3) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Azpilicueta (40.2) |
| 2.14 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 2.71 (second most) |
| 1.86 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 0.53 (fewest) |
| Crystal Palace | v | West Brom |
| 49% | Win % | 27% |
| 40% | Clean sheet % | 27% |
| 42% | To score 2+ % | 28% |
| Benteke (1) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Diagne (8) |
| Milivojevic (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Pereira (3) |
| Guaita (30.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Diagne (35.0) |
| 0.43 (fewest) | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 2.0 |
| 2.29 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.71 |
| Everton | v | Burnley |
| 56% | Win % | 22% |
| 40% | Clean sheet % | 22% |
| 53% | To score 2+ % | 27% |
| Richarlison (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Vydra (4) |
| Sigurdsson (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Lowton (4) |
| Sigurdsson (34.6) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Lowton (42.8) |
| 1.88 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.75 |
| 2.38 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.88 |
| Fulham | v | Man City |
| 10% | Win % | 77% |
| 13% | Clean sheet % | 55% |
| 17% | To score 2+ % | 69% |
| Maja (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Sterling (8) |
| Lookman (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | De Bryune (2) |
| Adarabioyo (45.8) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Sterling (49.3) |
| 1.38 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 3.0 (most) |
| 1.38 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.11 (second fewest) |
| Southampton | v | Brighton |
| 37% | Win % | 37% |
| 33% | Clean sheet % | 33% |
| 35% | To score 2+ % | 36% |
| Adams (4) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Welbeck (3) |
| Redmond (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Maupay (2) |
| Ward-Prowse (40.2) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Veltman (34.0) |
| 1.88 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.83 |
| 2.75 (second most) | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.17 (third fewest) |
| Leicester | v | Sheffield United |
| 69% | Win % | 14% |
| 50% | Clean sheet % | 17% |
| 60% | To score 2+ % | 20% |
| Vardy (4) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | McGoldrick (4) |
| Maddison (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Norwood (2) |
| Pereria (31.8) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Ramsdale (32.5) |
| 1.86 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.57 |
| 1.86 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 3.29 (most) |
| Arsenal | v | Tottenham |
| 40% | Win % | 36% |
| 28% | Clean sheet % | 27% |
| 44% | To score 2+ % | 40% |
| Aubameyang (4) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Kane (6) |
| Tierney (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Son (6) |
| Aubameyang (27.2) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Son (38.7) |
| 1.67 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 2.14 |
| 1.67 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.71 |
| Man United | v | West Ham |
| 56% | Win % | 24% |
| 36% | Clean sheet % | 20% |
| 56% | To score 2+ % | 31% |
| Martial (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Antonio (5) |
| Fernandes (4) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Cresswell (5) |
| Fernandes (45.8) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Cresswell (33.0) |
| 2.29 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 2.5 (third most) |
| 1.43 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.33 |
| Wolves | v | Liverpool |
| 21% | Win % | 57% |
| 20% | Clean sheet % | 42% |
| 27% | To score 2+ % | 55% |
| Neto (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Salah (7) |
| Neto (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Alexander-Arnold (3) |
| Neto (36.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Salah (42.6) |
| 1.43 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 2.0 |
| 2.43 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 2.57 (third most) |
Braveheart's GW27 review:
Unfortunately another red arrow as I fall down from 105k to 115k. A frustrating few weeks as I thought at least one of my City defenders would have returned a clean sheet but as it turns out my solitary clean sheet came from Targett (and I had another on the bench from Coufal). The only players in my team who performed were Fernandes (10), Gundogan (10) and Kane (19). I have no idea how Bamford and Raphinha blanked but oh well, we go again and I will hopefully be able to reverse the rot in my overall ranking over the next two gameweeks.
Braveheart's GW28 reveal:
My tip for all managers before making any transfers this week is to carry out a GW29 count on your team (only Fulham, Leeds, Brighton, Newcastle, West Ham, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Tottenham have a fixture that week). I'm sitting on seven players for GW29 at the moment:
- zero goalkeepers,
- three defenders - Dallas, Targett and Coufal,
- two midfielders - Raphinha and Soucek,
- three forwards - Kane, Bamford and Watkins.
I go into this gameweek with 1 free transfer and 1.6m in the bank. Having looked at my team, I don't think I will be making any transfers this week. I'd like Son or Bale but I don't want to get rid of Salah this week to fit them in. It will also give me time to be sure whether it is Son I want over Bale (I think it is).For captaincy, I've put the armband on Kane. Spurs have looked great with Bale back in the team (with the exception of the second match on my triple captaincy verses Fulham). While they have a tricky match against Arsenal, I prefer Kane to my other options in Bruno Fernandes (v West Ham) and Salah (v Wolves). If I had KDB, I'd have strongly considered putting the armband on him.
My squad heading into GW28 (if I make no transfer as planned) is as follows:
- Pope v Everton (a)
- Dias v Fulham (a)
- Cancelo v Fulham (a)
- Targett v Newcastle (h)
- Salah v Wolves (a)
- Fernandes v West Ham (h)
- Gundogan v Fulham (a)
- Raphinha v Chelsea (a)
- Kane v Arsenal (a) (captain)
- Bamford v Chelsea (h)
- Watkins v Newcastle (a)
- My likely bench order:
- McCarthy v Brighton (h) - he may come in if Forster is confirmed out,
- Dallas v Chelsea (h)
- Soucek v Man United (a)
- Coufal v Man United (a)
The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW28. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!
