Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week's Premier League fixtures.
All player data in this article is from the last six gameweeks. All data is correct as of 24 February 2021.
The forward look - GW26:
| Man City | v | West Ham |
| 80% | Win % | 8% |
| 55% | Clean sheet % | 9% |
| Sterling (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Antonio (5) |
| Sterling (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Cresswell (4) |
| Sterling (43.0) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Dawson (32.1) |
| 2.71 (most) | Team big chances pgpg (last 6 GWs) | 2.33 (joint third most) |
| 0.43 (fewest) | Big chances conceded pg pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.5 |
| West Brom | v | Brighton |
| 25% | Win % | 51% |
| 25% | Clean sheet % | 40% |
| Diagne (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Maupay (2) |
| Pereira (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Maupay (2) |
| Pereira (27.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Dunk (34.7) |
| 2.0 | Team big chances pgpg (last 6 GWs) | 1.67 |
| 1.83 | Big chances conceded pg pg (last 6 GWs) | 0.67 (second fewest) |
| Leeds | v | Aston Villa |
| 46% | Win % | 33% |
| 27% | Clean sheet % | 20% |
| Bamford (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Watkins (3) |
| Raphinha (6) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Grealish (2) |
| Raphinha (43.4) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Martinez (32.0) |
| 2.29 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.67 |
| 1.71 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.67 |
| Newcastle | v | Wolves |
| 29% | Win % | 47% |
| 28% | Clean sheet % | 40% |
| Almiron (1) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Neves (2) |
| Fraser (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Neto (2) |
| Darlow (27.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Neto (30.3) |
| 1.33 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.17 (joint third fewest) |
| 1.67 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.67 |
| Crystal Palace | v | Fulham |
| 29% | Win % | 44% |
| 28% | Clean sheet % | 38% |
| Batshuayi (1) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Maja (3) |
| Eze (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Lookman (3) |
| Guaita (26.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Adarabioyo (35.7) |
| 0.67 (fewest) | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.57 |
| 2.83 (most) | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.86 |
| Leicester | v | Arsenal |
| 40% | Win % | 35% |
| 31% | Clean sheet % | 27% |
| Vardy (4) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Aubameyang (3) |
| Maddison (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Xhaka (2) |
| Maddison (31.3) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Bellerin (25.3) |
| 1.83 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.33 |
| 1.83 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.67 |
| Tottenham | v | Burnley |
| 65% | Win % | 17% |
| 44% | Clean sheet % | 17% |
| Kane (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Rodriguez (3) |
| Moura (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Westwood (3) |
| Son (26.0) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Pope (36.4) |
| 0.88 (second fewest) | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.43 |
| 1.83 (joint third most) | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.86 |
| Chelsea | v | Man United |
| 46% | Win % | 31% |
| 31% | Clean sheet % | 25% |
| Werner (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Cavani (4) |
| Kovacic (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Fernandes (5) |
| Azpilacueta (33.5) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Fernandes (40.3) |
| 2.33 (joint third most) | Team big chances pgpg (last 6 GWs) | 2.67 (second most) |
| 0.83 (third fewest) | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.17 |
| Sheffield United | v | Liverpool |
| 13% | Win % | 74% |
| 12% | Clean sheet % | 48% |
| McGoldrick (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Salah (6) |
| Sharp (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Alexander-Arnold (3) |
| Ramsdale (27.6) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Salah (40.0) |
| 1.17 (joint third fewest) | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 2.33 (joint third most) |
| 2.33 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.83 (joint third most) |
| Everton | v | Southampton |
| 47% | Win % | 30% |
| 33% | Clean sheet % | 25% |
| Calvert-Lewin (4) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Adams (4) |
| Digne (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Redmond (3) |
| Digne (28.6) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | McCarthy (30.3) |
| 1.71 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.86 |
| 2.0 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.83 (joint third most) |
| Double gameweek fixtures | ||
| Man City | v | Wolves |
| 85% | Win % | 6% |
| 62% | Clean sheet % | 9% |
| Sterling (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Neves (2) |
| Sterling (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Neto (2) |
| Sterling (43.0) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Neto (30.3) |
| 2.71 (most) | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.17 (joint third fewest) |
| 0.43 (fewest) | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.67 |
| Burnley | v | Leicester |
| 21% | Win % | 57% |
| 20% | Clean sheet % | 42% |
| Rodriguez (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Vardy (4) |
| Westwood (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Maddison (3) |
| Pope (36.4) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Maddison (31.3) |
| 1.43 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.83 |
| 1.86 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.83 |
| Sheffield United | v | Aston Villa |
| 30% | Win % | 44% |
| 27% | Clean sheet % | 38% |
| McGoldrick (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Watkins (3) |
| Sharp (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Grealish (2) |
| Ramsdale (27.6) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Martinez (32.0) |
| 1.17 (joint third fewest) | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.67 |
| 2.33 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.67 |
| Crystal Palace | v | Man United |
| 14% | Win % | 70% |
| 15% | Clean sheet % | 48% |
| Batshuayi (1) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Cavani (4) |
| Eze (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Fernandes (5) |
| Guaita (26.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Fernandes (40.3) |
| 0.67 (fewest) | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 2.67 (second most) |
| 2.83 (most) | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.17 |
| Fulham | v | Tottenham |
| 26% | Win % | 52% |
| 23% | Clean sheet % | 38% |
| Maja (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Kane (2) |
| Lookman (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Moura (1) |
| Adarabioyo (35.7) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Son (26.0) |
| 1.57 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 0.88 (second fewest) |
| 1.86 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.83 (joint third most) |
| West Brom | v | Everton |
| 22% | Win % | 56% |
| 20% | Clean sheet % | 40% |
| Diagne (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Calvert-Lewin (4) |
| Pereira (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Digne (2) |
| Pereira (27.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Digne (28.6) |
| 2.0 | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 1.71 |
| 1.83 | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 2.0 |
| Liverpool | v | Chelsea |
| 47% | Win % | 31% |
| 28% | Clean sheet % | 32% |
| Salah (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Werner (6) |
| Alexander-Arnold (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Kovacic (2) |
| Salah (40.0) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Azpilacueta (33.5) |
| 2.33 (joint third most) | Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs) | 2.33 (joint third most) |
| 1.83 (joint third most) | Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs) | 0.83 (third fewest) |
Braveheart's GW25 review:
The Leeds-Southampton double didn't disappoint. If it had happened back in GW19 as originally planned my Leeds treble (at that time) of Bamford, Raphinha and Dallas would have crushed it. In weeks since that fixture was re-arranged, I lost Raphinha and brought in Gundogan. However, with that minor hard luck moment aside, I'm really pleased with how my GW25 panned out. I ended up with 77 points and a green arrow of 5k up to 75k (slowly, slowly moving towards the top 50k). The key performers for my team this week were Pope (8), Dias (7), Cancelo (5), Dallas (17), Fernandes (12) and Captain Bamford (16). Pope's return was particularly pleasing as I decided to resist the lure of McCarthy's double as I had no confidence in Saints' ability to get a clean sheet despite two opportunities to do so.
Braveheart's DGW26 reveal:
And here we go - the biggest double gameweek of the season. This would be a great week to bench boost if you are set up for it. For me, however, I only have my triple captain and wildcard left. I also have 2 FTs but only a mere 0.1m in the bank. My philosophy with a double gameweek is that a -4 is ok as long as you are removing a single gameweek player and the player you are bringing in will, most likely, play both games. In that scenario, you're essentially taking a -2 to get a shot at better returns.
I think I will be using my triple captain this week. On fixtures alone, I really want to hand the armband to Kane despite Tottenham's poor attacking returns of late (see the forward look, they are the second fewest for team big chances over the last six gameweeks). To bring Kane in, I will need to do one of the following:
- A - Pope to 3.9m, Justin to 3.9m and Ings to Kane (-4),
- B - Son to Barnes, Ings to Kane,
Option B could be coupled with moving Justin to Targett or Dier (with an eye on GW29). With option A, I would have 8 doublers and with option B I would have 9/10 doublers. I'm extremely reluctant to lose Son and so I think this might be something I deliberate over for the rest of the week but right now my judgment is telling me to go with option B as Barnes could easily outperform Son.
My squad heading into DGW26 (if I make my planned transfer(s)) is as follows:
- Pope v Tottenham (a) and Leicester (h)
- Dias v West Ham (h) and Wolves (h)
- Cancelo v West Ham (h) and Wolves (h)
- Targett v Leeds (a) and Sheffield United (h)
- Salah v Sheffield United (a) and Chelsea (h)
- Fernandes v Chelsea (a) and Crystal Palace (a)
- Barnes v Arsenal (h) and Burnley (a)
- Gundogan v West Ham (h) and Wolves (h)
- Kane v Burnley (h) and Fulham (a) (triple captain)
- Bamford v Aston Villa (h)
- Watkins v Leeds (a) and Sheffield United (h)
- My likely bench order:
- McCarthy v Everton (a)
- Dallas v Aston Villa (h)
- Soucek v Man City (a)
- Coufal v Man City (a)
The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW26. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!
