Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week's Premier League fixtures.
All data is from the last six gameweeks up until GW14 and the information in this article is correct as of 22 December 2020. Due to the quick turnaround between the boxing day fixtures and GW16 (which starts on 28 December - deadline at 1.30pm GMT), it was not possible to include the information from GW15 as that would have delayed the release of the article!
The forward look - GW16:
| Crystal Palace | v | Leicester |
| 28% | Win % | 50% |
| Benteke (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Vardy (6) |
| Eze (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Justin (3) |
| Van Aanholt (28.1) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Vardy (36.7) |
| 9 | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 11 |
| 13 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 15 |
| Chelsea | v | Aston Villa |
| 69% | Win % | 17% |
| Werner (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | El Ghazi (3) |
| Mount (4) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Grealish (2) |
| Zouma (34.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | El Ghazi (30.7) |
| 20 (second most) | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 12 |
| 3 (fewest) | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 5 (joint third fewest) |
| Everton | v | Man City |
| 20% | Win % | 64% |
| Calvert-Lewin (7) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Sterling (5) |
| Digne (3) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | De Bryune (8) |
| Calvert-Lewin (34.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | De Bryune (45.2) |
| 14 | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 18 (third most) |
| 12 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 4 (second fewest) |
| Brighton | v | Arsenal |
| 34% | Win % | 42% |
| Maupay (4) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Saka (3) |
| Wellbeck (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Bellerin (3) |
| Dunk (31.6) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Tierney (29.0) |
| 16 | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 8 (joint third fewest) |
| 11 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 9 |
| Burnley | v | Sheffield United |
| 40% | Win % | 33% |
| Wood (7) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | McBurnie (4) |
| McNeill (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Burke (3) |
| Wood (32.4) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Baldock (29.5) |
| 8 (joint third fewest) | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 10 |
| 13 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 18 (joint second most) |
| Southampton | v | West Ham |
| 49% | Win % | 29% |
| Walcott (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Balbuena (3) |
| Adams (5) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Bowen (2) |
| McCarthy (30.9) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Ogbonna (29.2) |
| 11 | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 12 |
| 13 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 17 |
| West Brom | v | Leeds |
| 28% | Win % | 53% |
| Bartley (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Bamford (6) |
| Pereira (1) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Rodrigo (3) |
| Johnstone (29.2) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Bamford (34.6) |
| 4 (fewest) | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 15 |
| 18 (joint second most) | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 22 (most) |
| Man United | v | Wolves |
| 60% | Win % | 20% |
| Rashford (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Neto (3) |
| Fernandes (5) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Neto (1) |
| Fernandes (43.2) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Neto (30.7) |
| 23 (most) | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 8 (joint third fewest) |
| 14 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 11 |
| Tottenham | v | Fulham |
| 69% | Win % | 14% |
| Son (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Cavaleiro (5) |
| Son (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Lookman (2) |
| Lloris (31.5) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Cavaleiro (35.8) |
| 9 | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 16 |
| 5 (joint third fewest) | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 18 (joint second most) |
| Newcastle | v | Liverpool |
| 15% | Win % | 71% |
| Wilson (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Firmino (6) |
| Joelinton (2) | Most big chances created (last 6 GWs) | Robertson (3) |
| Darlow (23.3) | xFPL (xG, xA and xCS combined) | Firmino (34.9) |
| 6 (second fewest) | Team big chances (last 6 GWs) | 17 |
| 10 | Big chances conceded (last 6 GWs) | 16 |
Braveheart's chip strategy:
Normally this is where I review my returns from the previous gameweek, however at the time of writing there are still four games to go and so there is no point as I still have seven players to go this week! The deadline for GW16 is the last point at which you can use the first wildcard and so, if you don't use it by then, you will lose it! With that said, my wildcard is finally active.
This season's first batch of blanks and doubles are as follows (all information from @BenCrellin on Twitter - make sure to give him a follow):
- Blank GW18,
- Double GW19,
- Double GW26,
- Blank GW29 - FA Cup quarters - expect 5 or 6 blanks)
- Blank GW33 - EFL Cup final,
As I still have my first wildcard, I think the optimum chip useage for me is as follows:
- Free hit in BGW 18 (11 matches from my players),
- Bench boost in DGW19 (28-30 matches from my players),
- Second wildcard in GW25,
- (Potentially) triple captain in DGW26 (20-22 matches from my players),
- DGW26 to BGW29 - use my four FTs and bench from wildcard to have at least 8 players.
I'm not worrying about planning for BGW18 or GW25 onwards right now as I have the luxury of my free hit and second wildcard to focus on those matches nearer the time. Right now my focus is on GW16, 17 and 19. I have a squad value of £102m so I'll be looking at wildcarding on a budget.
Braveheart's wildcard reveal:
The teams I like in terms of fixtures are West Ham, Leicester, Leeds and Liverpool. This means that the likes of Robertson, Coufal, Justin, Dallas, Salah, Fernandes (due to his form and the fact he has a double rather than fixtures necessarily), Raphina, Soucek, Vardy and Bamford are locks in my team (at least for when the DGW comes around and there are 2FTs until that point). In goals, the McCarthy and Johnstone double-up is the most cost-effective way to have a decent keeper for weekly use and a bench goalkeeper who can make most use of a DGW19 bench boost.
Spurs have great fixtures in GW16, 17 and 19 (Fulham, Leeds and Sheffield). I'm planning on keeping one or both of Son and Kane for these fixtures (keeping Kane until GW19 and moving to Vardy is an option I'm considering too).
Subject to any other team news, my team for GW16 will be as follows:
- McCarthy v West Ham (h)
- Robertson v Newcastle (a)
- Dallas v West Brom (a)
- Taylor v Sheffield United (h)
- Salah v Newcastle (a)
- Fernandes (vice captain) v Wolves (h)
- Son v Fulham (h)
- Raphina v West Brom (a)
- Kane (captain) v Fulham (h) (or Vardy v Crystal Palace (a))
- Adams v West Ham (h)
- Bamford v West Brom (a)
- Bench: Johnstone, Soucek, Coufal, Balbuena
My wildcard team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW16. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!
