Introduction
This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Football Index, Footstock, Sportstack or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week's Premier League fixtures.
All data is from the last six gameweeks and the information in this article is correct as of 08 December 2020.
The forward look - GW12:
| Leeds | v | West Ham |
| 49% | Win % | 29% |
| 28% | Clean sheet % | 20% |
| Bamford (10) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Soucek (3) |
| Alioski (3) | Most big chances created(last 6 GWs) | Bowen (3) |
| Bamford (41.8) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Fabianski (28.9) |
| 15 | Team big chances(last 6 GWs) | 11 |
| 21 (most) | Big chances conceded(last 6 GWs) | 13 |
| Wolves | v | Aston Villa |
| 44% | Win % | 31% |
| 36% | Clean sheet % | 28% |
| Dendoncker (4) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Watkins (6) |
| Neto (3) | Most big chances created(last 6 GWs) | Grealish (4) |
| Neto (30.5) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Grealish (35.8) |
| 9 | Team big chances(last 6 GWs) | 16 (joint second most) |
| 9 | Big chances conceded(last 6 GWs) | 10 |
| Newcastle | v | West Brom |
| 44% | Win % | 31% |
| 38% | Clean sheet % | 28% |
| Wilson (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Bartley (2) |
| Wilson (1) | Most big chances created(last 6 GWs) | Pereira (1) |
| Darlow (24.6) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Johnstone (27.1) |
| 6 (joint third fewest) | Team big chances(last 6 GWs) | 4 (fewest) |
| 6 | Big chances conceded(last 6 GWs) | 16 |
| Man United | v | Man City |
| 22% | Win % | 58% |
| 18% | Clean sheet % | 36% |
| Rashford (5) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Sterling (4) |
| Fernandes (6) | Most big chances created(last 6 GWs) | De Bruyne (7) |
| Fernandes (42.8) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | De Bruyne (42.5) |
| 16 (joint second most) | Team big chances(last 6 GWs) | 16 (joint second most) |
| 8 | Big chances conceded(last 6 GWs) | 4 (joint second fewest) |
| Everton | v | Chelsea |
| 22% | Win % | 57% |
| 17% | Clean sheet % | 33% |
| Calvert-Lewin (6) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Werner (7) |
| Rodriguez (2) | Most big chances created(last 6 GWs) | Ziyech (4) |
| Calvert-Lewin (34.2) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Chilwell (38.6) |
| 11 | Team big chances(last 6 GWs) | 17 (joint most) |
| 17 (joint third most) | Big chances conceded(last 6 GWs) | 3 (fewest) |
| Southampton | v | Sheffield United |
| 57% | Win % | 21% |
| 46% | Clean sheet % | 23% |
| Walcott (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | McBurnie (5) |
| Adams (2) | Most big chances created(last 6 GWs) | Berge (3) |
| McCarthy (30.5) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Baldock (31.2) |
| 5 (second fewest) | Team big chances(last 6 GWs) | 12 |
| 15 | Big chances conceded(last 6 GWs) | 17 (joint third most) |
| Crystal Palace | v | Tottenham |
| 22% | Win % | 60% |
| 20% | Clean sheet % | 40% |
| Zaha (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Kane (3) |
| Zaha (3) | Most big chances created(last 6 GWs) | Kane (2) |
| Van Arnholt (31.3) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Lloris (30.2) |
| 12 | Team big chances(last 6 GWs) | 9 |
| 11 | Big chances conceded(last 6 GWs) | 4 (joint second fewest) |
| Fulham | v | Liverpool |
| 13% | Win % | 74% |
| 10% | Clean sheet % | 42% |
| Lookman (3) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Salah (5) |
| Mitrovic (2) | Most big chances created(last 6 GWs) | Jota (2) |
| Lookman (32.8) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Salah (34.1) |
| 12 | Team big chances(last 6 GWs) | 17 (joint most) |
| 18 (second most) | Big chances conceded(last 6 GWs) | 11 |
| Arsenal | v | Burnley |
| 64% | Win % | 15% |
| 48% | Clean sheet % | 17% |
| Aubameyang (2) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Wood (4) |
| Bellerin (2) | Most big chances created(last 6 GWs) | McNeill (2) |
| Bellerin (29.3) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Wood (27.1) |
| 6 (joint third fewest) | Team big chances(last 6 GWs) | 7 |
| 9 | Big chances conceded(last 6 GWs) | 13 |
| Leicester | v | Brighton |
| 50% | Win % | 27% |
| 36% | Clean sheet % | 23% |
| Vardy (8) | Most big chances (last 6 GWs) | Maupay (4) |
| Vardy (2) | Most big chances created(last 6 GWs) | Lallana (3) |
| Vardy (41.0) | xFPL(xG, xA and xCS combined) | Gross (31.0) |
| 16 (joint second most) | Team big chances(last 6 GWs) | 12 |
| 15 | Big chances conceded(last 6 GWs) | 9 |
Braveheart's GW11 review:
The call off of the Aston Villa and Newcaslte match led to a minor deviation from my plan set out in last week's article. Instead of Ziyech to Mahrez, I went Grealish to Mahrez with the intention of going Ziyech to Grealish this week. The reason for the move was because I was sure Mahrez would start against Fulham (and he did), that he would be heavily involved in City's play (and he was). Unfortunately though, his involvement and xFPL of 7.8 points didn't turn into any actual points. As frustrating as it was watching De Bryune fly and captain Bruno be left to come off the bench, it wasn't a terrible week by any stretch. My team earned 61 points but a red arrow of 165k to 670k. I should have stuck to my original captain of Salah but I was lured by the fact Bruno is essential to United's play and had double digit hauls in most of his away matches. My lesson in all of this is to stick to your research and try not to be swayed by external noise.
At the time of writing, the players on my "out list":
- Ramsdale - still no clean sheets and Sheffield United look like they are doomed for a relegation dogfight this season so I will need to get rid of Ramsdale soon - Mendy a potential replacement,
- Ziyech - hasn't returned since I brought him into my team and limped off injured against Leeds, so will miss out until boxing day - in an early move I have transferred him out for Grealish,
- Mitrovic - has not started in his last three matches and so he needs to go as soon as possible - I'm monitoring price movement but I will likely transfer Mitrovic out for a hit for Bamford.
Braveheart's GW12 reveal:
Depending on the City line-up in the Champions League, I will either transfer Ziyech to Mahrez or Mitrovic to Watkins/Wilson. I would like to have De Bryune for this weekend's fixture against Fulham but, unfortunately, I'd need to lose Salah or Bruno to get him and those players are their team's tailsmen, likely penalty takers and score more than they assist so for now I think I will probably watch the Fulham match from behind the couch.
If I make the moves I'm thinking of making (Mitrovic to Bamford), my team for GW12 will be as follows:
- Ramsdale v Southampton (a)
- Chilwell v Everton (a)
- Justin v Brighton (h)
- Walker-Peters v Sheffield United (h)
- Salah (captain) v Fulham (a)
- Fernandes v Man City (h)
- Mahrez v Man United (a)
- Grealish v Wolves (a)
- Kane (vice captain) v Crystal Palace (a)
- Calvert-Lewin v Chelsea (h)
- Bamford v West Ham (h)
The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW12. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!
