10 Reasons Casual FPL Managers have been so Successful Early in the Season
I don't feel like I've had an unreasonable start to the season. My team is in decent shape, I've not had to play my wildcard yet and my captain choices have returned regularly. However, it seems like my rank is a lot worse than it normally is and half of my friends/family in mini-leagues seem to do be doing just as well, if not better (including my Clueless Husband)!
It's been a frustrating start: what's going on?
1. High Scoring
It has been a particularly high scoring start to the season. After gameweek 6, I sat on 329 points with a rank of 1 million. That's not too far away from my average 60+ points a week target, which usually challenges for the top 10k. If you look at my points tally, it's much better than 2 years ago and similar to last year. So, in terms of points, I'm on schedule.
So why is my rank so much worse?
2. Number of Players
The growth in popularity of the FPL game is incredible, with around 1 million more participants compared with two years ago. With 25% more teams in the game, you can expect your rank to be 25% worse for the same points! You can study form/fixtures as much as you like; but FPL is a lottery where good fortune is needed.
More teams means more competition and less chances of winning!
3. Clean Sheets
The biggest surprise of the season so far has been the number of clean sheets kept by teams. The serious FPL managers have studied the fixtures and defensive capabilities of various teams. Casual managers, who took more of an ‘ad hoc' approach in choosing their defence, will have been lucky enough to earn some clean sheets anyway, even with a top heavy team. Over half the teams in the league have kept 3+ clean sheets so far, which has resulted in decent points across the board for defenders and value in this area too.
4. High Ownership
Lukaku was the highest owned player in the game at the start of the season: he got off to a flier and has maintained that form. It has been a varied start to the season for some of the popular picks but Alli, Firmino, Salah, Mane & De Gea were consistent points scorers; at least in the first few weeks. Very few differentials have emerged in the first few weeks and that has meant that serious managers haven't managed to achieve a lead on those casual managers with teams full of high ownership players.
5. High Price Tags
Nearly all of the players with a high price tag at the start of the season have gained a glut of points. All of the £5.5 keepers have at least kept a clean sheet in every other game; out of all the premium defenders there's only Chelsea defenders, those with red flags and Milner who haven't delivered consistent clean sheets and attacking returns. Moving onto the attacking threats, all of the £8.5+ midfielders and strikers who were fit to start the season (other than Özil) have delivered big points! Whoever you chose to invest the big money in, they've delivered you the points and they've done the same for the casuals too!
6. High Profile Players
Here's a list of the most followed Premier League footballers on social media: Ozil, Rooney, Aguero, Fabregas, Luiz, Mata, De Gea, Pogba. Even the most casual of managers have heard of this bunch and tend to choose names they've heard of for their teams. Five of those had a brilliant start to the season, meaning that the casuals benefited, despite their lack of knowledge.
7. Chips
Now, I've still got a full set of chips to play that I'm diligently saving until the double gameweeks, which will give me the biggest chance of points. However, many managers, including those above me, have already parted with these precious chips or won't understand how to use them most effectively in the latter stages of the season. 7 of the current top 10 have used a chip already and the trend continues in the top 10k. Successful implementation of these chips will mean elevated ranks.
8. Manchester United
Manchester United are the most high profile football club in the world, their FPL fan league has 900,000 managers with Arsenal in second with 470,000 managers. That means nearly 20% of FPL players are United fans and many will have tripled up on their assets at the start of the season. Serious managers will have known with the fixtures that they would get off to a good start, but perhaps wouldn't have anticipated as much as 17 goals and 5 clean sheets in their first 6 games! While we were reluctant to triple up on one team for GW1, the casuals were merrily getting these assets into their squads and you couldn't really go wrong with 3 of them from the off!
9. The Top Six
The Premier League table after gameweek 6 looked pretty similar to the end of last season, with Watford the only new addition. Similarly, of the current top 25 FPL players; only Forster, Richarlison, Doucore, Vardy and Groß come from teams outside last years top 6! Those casuals who loaded up with players from the big six teams have been rewarded with big points while us serious managers have struggled to find value from other clubs in the league.
10. Social Media
With the growth of social media, FPL managers are becoming better educated. The official site is producing lots of content to educate and aid casual managers, and they are using sites and twitter accounts like ourselves to help in their decision making. We are receiving more accurate injury news and so it's been easier for casual managers to make informed decisions.
The Case Study � Clueless Husband
My Husband doesn't like football and every August, he is reluctant to create a team. This summer we were in London for the World Athletics Championships and, with a few hours to spare before the session, I suggested he made his team. He handed me his phone and attempted to name 11 players (this was a struggle) for his team. This is what he came up with:
My hubby doesn't like football but I've forced him to make a team. This is what he has come up with, it was a struggle for him to name XI 😳 pic.twitter.com/hUqijfYoD7
— FPL Holly (@fplholly) August 7, 2017
With his limited knowledge, he managed to name 2 ex-Hull players, 3 United players, 3 England players and a couple of other high-profile players from last years top 6 (I chose the bench!) He's got off to an absolute flier, still has all his chips in play and a regular appearance in my weekly captaincy article.
So, plenty of casual managers have got off to a strong start. Given that strong start, they are showing more continued interest and there are less ‘dead teams' in the game. This means that it's going to take us serious managers a little longer to show our class and for our time/research to pay off.
Remember, it's a marathon not a sprint. Judge your success at the end of the season, when the casuals have fallen by the wayside.
Good Luck!
Follow Holly for more FPL insight... Follow @FPLholly
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