Dec 14

November 22 MLS Fantasy Tips � Daily Fantasy Football Tips

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For the purposes of this article, all prices and points are via our partners Mondogoal. Did you forget that the MLS was still active?  Many people probably did.  The international break always comes at the worst times for the MLS it seems.  Just as the action is heating up and everybody is tuned into the playoffs...the international breaks strikes and we all lose a bit of that momentum. But we can get that momentum back, and interject a bit of a curve ball into your typical daily fantasy play.  The MLS Conference Finals start this Sunday, and even though we only have two matches to choose from, these teams are the best that the MLS has to offer to this point.  With a nod to old school TLC, we don't want no scrubs (at least not this late into the year). Like we did two weeks ago, let's break this down by match-up once again.

Columbus v NYRB

The two teams with the highest goals totals for the year face off in the first of our two matches; the Red Bulls had 62 goals on the year while Columbus came in just behind them with 58.  When you have the top two scoring teams in the league facing off, you probably don't want to bulk up all that heavily on their defensive selections.  Columbus have been rather dismal all year in defense anyway -- but even a better defense like NY will have a tough time on the road against the likes of Kei Kamara -- just keep that in mind. These two teams have faced each other three times already this year in league play, and each time the scoreline was 2-1.  NY owns the tiebreaker between the two sides since they stole the first victory on the road back in March -- but in the two games that followed, the home team came out victorious.  It is interesting to note that the most consistent player in the season series was Bradley Wright Phillips; he either scored a goal or nabbed an assist in each of the three games this season against the Crew.  If any stat should dictate where you spend some money at forward matters, that factoid is probably the most predominant. Key Players:
There really isn't any secret to who the superstars are in this match.  Bradley Wright Phillips ($12.1, F) is a steady performer, and he does well against the Crew.  Likewise, Kei Kamara ($13.2, F) was only edged out in the Golden Boot race because he didn't have as many assists as Giovinco -- but he scored 22 goals this year and was tied for the league lead.  It's probably a safe bet that both of these guys will be in the vast majority of teams that you will go up against on Sunday -- it's finding that third striker (or 5th midfielder) that will make the difference for many people. Some people will look to Ethan Finlay ($9.0) as a sneaky play.  Even though he plays an attacking mid role, he's been listed as a forward on Mondogoal all year.  Finlay was in the Top 5 in the assists category this year in the MLS with 13, so even if you choose to pick him as your third striker this week, he does merit some attention. In the midfield, Sacha Kljestan ($12.2, M) is always a proven commodity.  Not only is he going to be on free kicks, but he could be the penalty taker if Columbus clumsily make a challenge in the box (I'm personally thinking it's a 50/50 chance we see a penalty tomorrow in this game).  Lloyd Sam ($9.2, M) is probably under-priced in my opinion, and he could be a steal if he performs to his expectations.  Sam had 10 goals and 4 assists on the year, and he could play a feature role here if Columbus just decide to key in on BWP and Kljestan and take their chances against the rest of NY's attacking options. Like I said above, the defensive sides for these two teams are going to be a dicey proposition.  The fact that each team has failed to keep a clean sheet against the other means that nobody is expecting a clean sheet on either side in this contest.  I could just draw a name out of a hat and pretend like I think that said player is poised for a big game tomorrow - but that would be completely disingenuous.  The fact is that NY is more comfortable pushing their defenders forward in attack -- so if you need a defender, you could choose any of their back line and take your chances.  I would say to avoid Columbus defense at all cost though.  They rarely pull through for you when called upon.

Portland v Dallas

Now, after all I wrote about NY and Columbus, the match that will make or break your team is going to be the Portland v Dallas match.  Why?  Because even though these two sides are the better defensive sides, they've played to high scorelines against each other already this year -- and have defied their season long averages in doing so.  Dallas' Jesse Gonzalez ($7.8, GK) has been a phenom since he came onto the scene late in the year.  He has 5 clean sheets through 13 matches (a ratio of 1:2.6).  And Portland's Adam Kwarasey ($7.0, GK) leads the four available keepers with 14 clean sheets on the year. The problem is that Portland and Dallas have played twice this year - and each time the home team won by a large margin.  Dallas beat Portland 4-1 at home, and Portland beat Dallas 3-1 prior to that.  Granted, those results came earlier in the year before Jesse Gonzalez had even been introduced to us, but the statistical data is what it is.  Given the lopsided nature of the results, and the fact that Portland start the series at home, you have to probably give the nod to Kwarasey as the keeper of choice on the day. Key Players:
First and foremost we have to say that Portland's key midfielder, Diego Valeri, is out of this game with a yellow card suspension (Rodney Wallace also is suspended for the same reason -- but he would've played a smaller part either way).  Losing Valeri is huge.  There's no way around it.  But the resurgence of Darlington Nagbe ($12.1, M) makes the loss a little easier to bear.  Every player has a moment when they realize that the game is easier than they've made it out to be.  For whatever reason, Nagbe has finally embraced the fact that he's better than 90% of the players on the pitch on any given day, and he's really come into his own.  Nagbe is averaging 13.68 points over his last five matches, and without Valeri by his side, he's going to have to take this game as his own if Portland are going to be successful.  Nagbe was always a good points earner because he drew fouls more prolifically than any other player -- but now that he's scoring his own goals, he's the total package. The juxtaposition to Nagbe then is Mauro Diaz ($13.4, M).  Diaz is the central figure in Dallas' attack...as long as he can stay healthy.  Diaz is averaging 11.2 points over his last five matches, and if Dallas hope to snag a road goal to start this series, they'll have to have Diaz involved in the attack from the start. Moving back to the front, Fanendo Adi ($9.1, F) has found his form again and has 4 goals over his last five matches.  Obviously most teams are going to have Kamara and BWP, so Adi would definitely be your differential player if you're looking to load up on three strikers.  Fabian Castillo ($9.7, F) is Dallas' counterpart to Adi, and he's a serviceable third option in most cases.  He only has a single goal over his last five matches, but his talent is such that he could always score in any situation.  Few players have his pace on the ball.  It would be a hard ask to choose him over Adi or Finlay playing at home, but it could work out for you if he is on his 'A game'. A player that loses out in this series is going to be Michael Barrios ($7.2, F).  Barrios is typically listed as a midfielder, but he's a striker in Mondogoal's system.  Even though he's a steady earner for his low price point (he's averaging 6.8 points per game over his last five), it's just too hard to justify picking him on the road this round over the other selections.  He might be somebody to watch out for when the series moves to Dallas, but he's a pass this week. In the back, you have a plethora of very good options.  You just need to decide in your head what you think the scoreline is going to be.  Does the scoring keep pace with the head to head data?  Or do you expect a more conservative first match that better suits the season-long statistical data that these two teams have achieved.  Either way, most teams will have more Dallas and Portland players on their back lines than not, it just depends on how much you want to invest there. Matt Hedges ($9.2, D), Alvas Powell ($9.0, D) and Zach Loyd ($9.0, D) are the three most expensive defenders on the board.  Maybe you don't feel that sinking $9.0+ in a defender playing away is the smart move, but Alvas Powell is probably worth that much in this situation.  Portland will use him more often moving up the wing to make up for Valeri and Wallace being sidelined.  If you're just looking for a clean sheet possibility though, move as far down the price table as you can and pick up some of Portland's other options.
There you have it guys, our penultimate MLS article for the year is at a close.  We'll be back next week for the second leg in these series with more Daily Fantasy Football Tips. Good luck all.