Dec 14

Fantasy MLS Tips For Daily Fantasy Football Betting: March 18/19/20

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In the edition of his Fantasy MLS Tips article, Guy Sanchez picks out his top fantasy hints and tricks for Gameweek 3. Just when you think that you have started to figure out the MLS on a player by player basis, something like GW2 rolls along and shows you that it's incredibly difficult to grasp this league as a whole sometimes.  On paper, LA should have demolished Colorado last round (either home or away), but they ended up losing 0-1. Likewise, nobody expected Houston to come away with much more than a single point against Dallas, but they ended up blowing up Dallas to the tune of 5-0.  And to add insult to injury, the NYRB were at just a couple of well placed kicks away from going to the finals last year - but they're sitting on zero points after two games.  Even the best of prognosticators can't figure this league out sometimes.  If you look at the odds from last week, it's pretty clear that even the bookies have been left scratching their heads this year too. All that being said, the bookies don't get these things wrong for too many weeks in a row.  So let's see if they've righted their course this week.

FIXTURES AND ODDS

GW3 ODDS NOTE: These times are listed for European players - American players will see all matches from Chicago to Portland on Saturday. Last week, we only had three teams that were favorites at a lower than even payout.  This week NYRB, FC Dallas, LA, Portland and SKC are all considered to be confident picks, and LA is tops of them all.  It should be noted that all of these teams are home teams, so in the scheme of things, lines like this should be a bit more expected now.  There are some marked underdogs on the list that probably don't deserve to be so poorly listed, but we'll get into those a bit later.

ONE OF THE BIGGEST UNDERDOGS IS...HOUSTON?

This is one of those lines that you have to assume is solely based on the length of travel that Houston are going to have to endure to get to NY.  You know, because they walk there right?  I'll admit, I'll never understand this stigma that certain players have in their head that sitting on a plane for a few hours makes the difference between winning and losing, but MLS teams definitely do worse on the road.  Yet should we be so quick to dismiss Houston in this fixture? Houston have only played two matches at home so far this year - so I'll concede that the results should be in their favor.  But they've certainly made the most of their two fixtures on the offensive end.  Houston are currently sitting on a league-high +5 GD, and they've scored the most of any team in the league (8 goals).  So even if this team is slowed down somewhat with a road fixture, they've at least shown a capability to get the job done to this point. Conversely, their opponents, the NYRB, are sitting on a -5 GD, they're last in the league with 0 points and they have yet to score a goal this year.  I get that home teams rule the roost, but this might be one of those situations that Houston could overcome the odds.  Christian Maidana will most likely miss this fixture through injury, so we'll see how well Houston can adjust without him. Key Players: Andrew Wenger ($4400 DraftKings, $4.8 Mondogoal) Will Bruin ($5700 DraftKings, $7.9 Mondogoal) David Horst ($2900 DraftKings, $7.6 Mondogoal)

CAN LA REGAIN THEIR RHYTHM?

LA were underwhelming this past week in Colorado, but we already know that.  Even as disappointing as that loss was from a fantasy perspective, you can't overlook LA at home, and their betting numbers above can attest to that.  Even though their opponent, San Jose, are sitting on top of the West with 6 points, they're also the biggest underdog on the board this week (at more than 5:1 odds of pulling off the win). I would say that this case and the Houston dilemma aren't fully equal though.  Sure, San Jose are doing well, but unlike Houston, they've only put forward three goals so far this year.  So whereas I like Houston to continue to roll a bit, I'm not sure that San Jose shouldn't be looked at as the dogs here.  It's just that LA are so frustrating in their home and away ability that it's almost comically hard to take them seriously sometimes - and that's my real issue with this match up, not their opponent. We know that LA have talent to spare.  And we know for a mathematical fact that they will do better at home than on the road.  So on that alone, we have to look at this game with the same confidence that the bookies do.  Leave some room on your squad for at least one LA position player. Key Players: Robbie Keane ($8000 DraftKings, $13.4 Mondogoal) Nigel De Jong ($4300 DraftKings, $5.9 Mondogoal) Steven Gerrard ($6000 DraftKings, $9.7 Mondogoal)

CAN PIATTI REPEAT HIS PERFORMANCE? (PART 2)

For the second week in a row, we have a carryover topic!  But based on their second performance of the year, we can give Montreal some love and revisit their situation. Montreal are sitting atop the Eastern Conference with two wins in their first two matches - and those matches were without the benefit of Didier Drogba.  Ignacio Piatti has really taken this team as his own, and the results are impressive.  Piatti has three goals and two assists in those games (good enough for 63 points in DraftKings and 45.18 points in Mondogoal).  He's been the ultimate fantasy player to start the year, no matter which format you choose to play. But this third match of the year will be a different beast completely - and their huge underdog status may be deserved.  For starters, Montreal will be playing away to Dallas.  Whereas Montreal is still dipping well below freezing each day - Dallas has been in the upper 60's and 70's lately.  So the weather will be a change.  Also, this is the first match that Drogba is scheduled to play in since Dallas play on a natural grass field.  And this is the key point that needs to be examined. Drogba had an immediate impact (no pun intended) when he showed up for Montreal last year - but this year has been a bit more surly between the striker and the club.  Drogba made the decision to not play on turf to start the year...and Montreal are a turf team.  So it's a bit of a stumbling block when your supposed best player refuses to play home fixtures.  And Montreal have been perfect without Drogba.  That's not to say that Drogba won't bolster this team when available, but he's not been a part of this team's current stretch - so it's possible that Drogba could hurt the team a bit just by changing the chemistry on the field.  Or Montreal could come out and be even better.  It's really a coin-toss right now.  Either way, Piatti should be on your squad, as well as a Dallas player or two - expect fireworks in this one. Key Players Ignacio Piatti ($6300 DraftKings, $15.4 Mondogoal) Didier Drogba ($7300 DraftKings, $10.6 Mondogoal) Mauro Diaz ($7000 DraftKings, $13.6 Mondogoal)

WILL SKC STAY PERFECT, OR WILL GIOVINCO PREVAIL?

SKC have started hotter than anybody thought they would - but they always seem to start hot and cool off as the year goes, don't they?  No matter, SKC are following their yearly script, and Toronto are on their third of eight straight road fixtures to start the year.  Typically when a team is set to play that many road fixtures, you'd have to assume they'd be at the bottom of the table - but most teams don't have Sebastian Giovinco to save them. Giovinco has started as hot as any player outside of Piatti - he has a goal and an assist in each of his first two fixtures.  Because of this, Toronto are sitting in second place in the East with a bit of breathing room as they plug through their horrible run of fixtures.  As long as Toronto keep Giovinco healthy, they're in contention every game they play, no matter home or away. But SKC aren't slouches (yet).  Through the first two matches, they've only conceded a single goal and they've won both a home and away fixture.  Dom Dwyer started slowly in his first match, but in the second match he scored two goals on eight shots.  Brad Davis, SKC's new hire from Houston, came back from injury late last week and was able to put in two crosses and drew a foul in 13 minutes of action - so expect him to have a bigger impact this week.  Benny Feilhaber has yet to make an appearance this year, but he's listed as day to day and could further strengthen this squad when ready. Key Players Sebastian Giovinco ($9600 DraftKings, $15.7 Mondogoal) Brad Davis ($4600 DraftKings, $9.9 Mondogoal) Dom Dwyer ($6800 DraftKings, $8.7 Mondogoal)