This is going to be a new weekly column on the Daily Fantasy MLS tips side of this site. The point here is to look over the past week while the games are still fresh in our minds, and start to identify developing trends before the rest of the crowd. And it also gives us a chance to see where we went wrong in our previous week's picks.
In a sporting event, any number of things can happen that can break apart the best laid plans - but that doesn't mean we should just write everything off to “bad luck”. No, we'll face the music and see how we can do better the next time and so as to not be completely obsessed with what went wrong, we'll also highlight the players we were right about. As damaging as it can be to pick the goalkeeper who gave up five goals, it can be equally detrimental to skip over the recommended budget player that scored twice.
And this week we had plenty of opportunities to get things right...and wrong. We had a split schedule of games - and all of the events offered had more than a surprise or two waiting for us.
What we got wrong:
Right off the bat, we have to look at the reason that we here thought that
Tim Melia was the best choice of the night. San Jose had, indeed, been scored on to the tune of 11-4 in their previous four away fixtures. But San Jose moving to a 4-4-2 served them well, and the win was historic. One commentator said that was the first match San Jose had won away to SKC in eleven years. And it was the biggest margin of victory that San Jose had achieved since 2012. Whether or not this is something that can continue for San Jose is left to be seen -- but we can say that the result was an anomaly on that night. It wasn't bad luck, but it was a steep variation from the statistical norm that told us that Melia would've been a good pick. And his score of -3.70 points was the unfortunate consequence of that variance.
But what about SKC? Even though San Jose were able to have their way with the backline of SKC, surely there was something more that
Benny Feilhaber could've brought to the table outside of his red card? It appears that the problems in SKC are a bit bigger than we had previously thought. Neither Feilhaber, nor
Zusi, nor
Dwyer looked up to the task of generating any positive momentum for Kansas City. Can anybody predict a red card? Obviously not, but even looking back at Benny's previous results, if I had to go back again and reexamine the numbers, I'd still have picked Benny as my midfielder of choice for that night. Looking on the bright side, at least Feilhaber escaped with 0.02 points instead of a complete negative like Melia.
So that's my bad.
Our third choice pick for a midfielder on Wednesday night was
Thomas McNamara - and he was a bit of a dud. The only bright spot was his 20 Passes Completed, but at 0.05 points per pass, his contribution to other facets of the game needed to be greater. His total of 2.28 points just wasn't enough.
What we got right:
Our biggest victory of the night was keying in on
Kwadwo Poku, who at the time cost a measly $4.8. The man is simply on fire right now. En route to 22.53 points, Poku notched two goals, three shots on target and completed 35 passes. In all reality, it doesn't get any better than this when it comes to a cost per points ratio. Poku will be on our radar for the rest of the season based on what he's been able to produce in 90 minute starts.
What we got wrong:
We can start with the fact that we recommended two keepers,
Sean Johnson and
Evan Bush, as having the best chances to keep clean sheets -- and neither player was able to do so. The bright side is that the two keepers played very well by only conceding a goal a piece-- but the clean sheets were elsewhere. Surprisingly, Philadelphia and Colorado both kept clean sheets on the road, and Vancouver and RSL were able to keep shutouts at home. None of these events were as likely as our recommendations, but it was just one of those nights in the MLS. Oftentimes, all you can do is play the odds -- and this time we lost playing those odds on our two highlighted picks.
Also, on the attacking side of the ball we recommended
Shawn Maloney as a possible pick -- but Maloney was in the process (unbeknownst to us) of being traded to Hull City this weekend. This might have had a bit to do with why the Chicago Fire were so disjointed at times. And secondly, we had high hope for
Obafemi Martins -- but after his stellar reintroduction to the starting lineup the week prior, he fell flat with a dismal 2.81 points for a $13.6 salary.
What we got right:
We pegged three LA Galaxy players:
Robbie Keane, Steven Gerrard and
Giovani Dos Santos as players to buy. All three contributed to the 5-1 LA victory over NYCFC. Gerrard only managed an assist -- but still had a positive impact. Dos Santos managed a goal and an assist. And Keane topped them all with two goals and two assists. In short, if you picked all three of them in tandem, you probably did very well this week.
We also picked
Giovinco, and owners had to love that the Toronto superstar was played the entire game without
Altidore next to him screwing up his rhythm. His 9.13 points on the day may have felt like a bit of a letdown, but at least it shows that he's getting back into the scoring side of the equation.
Finally, our number one midfielder pick of the week was
Javier Morales -- and Morales scored more points than his cost (17.35 points / $15.70). Not only did Morales get the goal, but he completed 81 passes on the night. If he keeps up this run of play, he'll be worth his cost game in and game out.
Our Grade: B
Sure, we whiffed on sniffing out the clean sheets this week -- but if you go back and read the original articles, we loaded you up with so many attacking options that hit like clockwork. Not only did the LA trio get you points, but we had Poku and Morales there to further back up your squads with positive points. Like always , we'll continue to try to do better. Check back tomorrow for our tips on this Wednesday's Daily Fantasy MLS games.
