Gameweek 25 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals
Gameweek 25 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals.
The purpose of this article is to help you identify the Premier League teams with the best clean sheet and goal scoring potential for Gameweek 25.
Both of these factors are essential for FPL (or any fantasy football game) as your fortunes and point totals are hugely dependent on goals scored and clean sheets secured.
Algorithm provided by our partners: All Fantasy Tips
How to use these numbers
These numbers are based on a statistical model where each team has a unique rating for scoring and conceding goals. This rating is based on various factors from the previous 10-50 Premier League matches, and it is updated on regular basis.
Making use of these numbers can give you a huge advantage in many ways:
Gain an edge by identifying the favourites and most likely scorers, compare the clean sheet potential of lower-tier clubs such as West Brom, Bournemouth and Stoke or solidify your initial gut picks with statistical findings.
Gameweek 25 Top Candidates
Clean sheet: Arsenal 57%, Man Utd 56%, Chelsea 52%
Expected goals: Arsenal 2.93, Man City 2.11, Man Utd 1.98
The algorithm has proved very successful for tipping defensive correctly in the past few months. This trend should continue in Gameweek 25 with the top three candidates implied chance of a clean sheet at over 50%.
Arsenal aim to bounce back after an embarrassing defeat, Man United are in line to secure back-to-back shutouts and Chelsea, as we’ve all come to expect, are clean sheet regulars. It might be a good idea to back Valencia with either/both of Alonso and David Luiz, while Monreal is decent alternative to Koscielny.
The Gunners are almost certainly out of the title race as they face a spirited Hull City, who have found the net versus Liverpool and United in recent weeks. Despite the hugely contrasting form between the pair, the numbers don’t lie; Arsenal are a class above their opponent and are likely to dominate in all areas of the park on home soil.
Manchester United possess the longest unbeaten run in Europe, so you would have to be very bold not to trust their defence. After their solid performance in Gameweek 24, The Red Devils now have three consecutive clean sheets and face an average Watford outfit who have failed to score in five of their twelve away fixtures.
Chelsea are another side who can never be ignored. They may have lost their clean sheet at the dying minutes against Arsenal, however Antonio Conte looked ready to leather his defensive coach for his teams mistakes, and you can be sure that they’ll be well drilled in preparation for the weekend!
Arsenal have by far the best attacking potential this weekend. Even with Hull keeping back-to-back clean sheets in the Premier League versus Man United and Liverpool, the algorithm shows them no mercy. Arsenal are sitting close to the three goal mark, so Alexis Sanchez should be a primary captain choice this week.
Man City come in at second with man of the moment, Gabriel Jesus, making the headlines. The youngster is becoming more and more popular and has three goals and two assists in his last three appearances. In Gameweek 24, he kept Aguero out of the side as he scored both of his sides goals to sink Swansea.
Note; Man City have a confirmed blank in GW 26, and another in GW28 if they get past Huddersfield and the famous David Wagner on the 18th of February.
Stoke are also worth a shout this weekend. The Potters face a leaky Palace defence who have conceded nine in their last three fixtures. Peter Crouch has scored four and assisted two in his previous seven matches.
The lanky forward recently broke the 100 Premier League goal barrier, so it wouldn’t surprise us to see him notch goal #101 here. Marko Arnautovic, who’s classified as a midfielder in FPL, could prove a good differential across all fantasy football formats.
The past performance:
Here you can see how the top candidates of this algorithm have performed in the previous weeks. As you can see, the numbers can predict the outcomes pretty nicely!
Clean Sheet Accuracy of Top Candidates: 64% (21 CS in 33 Matches)
Goals Scored Per Match of Top Candidates: 2.18 ( 72 goals in 33 Matches)