Gameweek 24 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals
Gameweek 24 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals.
The purpose of this article is to help you identify the Premier League teams with the best clean sheet and goal scoring potential for Gameweek 24.
Both of these factors are essential for FPL (or any fantasy football game) as your fortunes and point totals are hugely dependent on goals scored and clean sheets secured.
Algorithm provided by our partners: All Fantasy Tips
How to use these numbers
These numbers are based on a statistical model where each team has a unique rating for scoring and conceding goals. This rating is based on various factors from the previous 10-50 Premier League matches, and it is updated on regular basis.
Making use of these numbers can give you a huge advantage in many ways:
Gain an edge by identifying the favourites and most likely scorers, compare the clean sheet potential of lower-tier clubs such as West Brom, Bournemouth and Stoke or solidify your initial gut picks with statistical findings.
Gameweek 24 Top Candidates
Clean sheet: Tottenham 65%, Liverpool 49%, Man Utd 46%
Expected goals: Man City 3.01, Liverpool 2.44, Tottenham 1.98
Since Gameweek 20, our top candidate for a clean sheet has always proved successful, so with Tottenham as this weeks favourites, it couldn’t be set-up better for our fourth conversion in a row. Their opponent, Middlesbrough, have been weak in front of goal all season and are currently the lowest scoring team in the Premier League.
Even Sunderland and Hull have found the net more often, however, they are genuinely respected by every club in the League and have proved resilient on thier travels – we feel Boro have a decent chance to keep this game tight, just like Sunderland managed for 90 minutes against Spurs in Gameweek 23.
Saying that, it would be a surprise if they managed to score a goal themselves, having failed to score a goal in nine Premier League matches this season, This is why Tottenham, who have kept three clean sheets in their last four outings, are the front runners with the algorithm handing out a massive 65% probability of a shutout.
Liverpool are the second best option this weekend. Jurgen Klopp’s men have had a January to forget so far, winning just once from nine attempts and picking up just seven points from a possible 27. Though some confidence can be taken from their midweek match, where Liverpool limited Chelsea to a solitary goal.
This was all down to Simon Mignolet, and we don’t just mean his heroics as he denied Diego Costa from the penalty spot, it was also his individual error which allowed Chelsea to take the lead in the first place. The Belgian keeper was left staring into the distance, in the wrong direction, as David Luiz hammered in a freekick.
Man United are the third best candidate for a clean sheet. They visit the King Power to play a Leicester side who’s league form has plummeted from title-winners to relegation scrapers. The Foxes have been toothless – failing to score in three consecutive matches and able to muster just three goals in their last six.
A Mourinho instructed defence shouldn’t have too many problems here. Phil Jones is a doubt having left the field on 55 minutes last night, much to the disappointment of his FPL ownership, but Chris Smalling is a sufficient replacement if called upon.
Gameweek 24 looks interesting for attacking potential. Man City are back to their free-scoring ways as they trashed West Ham by four goals to nil in midweek. The big talking point was that Premier League new boy Gabriel Jesus started his first match in style with a goal, an assist and maximum bonus points.
This is a massive headache for Aguero’s 19.6% ownership on FPL, as it’s unclear if he’ll return for his sides attractive fixture versus Swansea at the Etihad. Will City start with both strikers, will Pep rotate with Aguero starting and Jesus coming off the bench or will he shoot us all down and give Iheanacho the nod.
You can’t write anything off with Pep and our tip is that Aguero might come back to bite those who got rid. It’s a risky strategy, however, if the Argentine starts he’ll be fired up to win back his recognition – he also fired in a brace when City met Swansea earlier on in the season.
It’s worth noting that Raheem Sterling is another viable option, having racked up a goal and seven assists in his last eight appearances. He assisted twice against West Ham, is available at a drop down price compared to De Bruyne, Silva and Toure and is arguably the most advanced player in Guardiola’s midfield.
Liverpool are clearly the second best option in attack and Mane is expected to be reintegrated into the starting XI after featuring from the bench on Tuesday. The Senegalese International is hugely influential to their attack; win Percentage with Mane – 71%, without – 33%.
Roberto Firmino is another very good pick this weekend. Playing as a centre-forward, but listed as a midfielder, his output will be given a boost with the playmaking trio of Coutinho, Mane and Lallana back and supplying.
The past performance:
Here you can see how the top candidates of this algorithm have performed in the previous weeks. As you can see, the numbers can predict the outcomes pretty nicely!
Clean Sheet Accuracy (Top Candidates): 63%
Goals Scored Per Match (Top Candidates): 2.30