Gameweek 23 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals
Gameweek 23 Clean Sheet Probability & Expected Goals.
The purpose of this article is to help you identify the Premier League teams with the best clean sheet and goal scoring potential for Gameweek 23.
Both of these factors are essential for FPL (or any fantasy football game) as your fortunes and point totals are hugely dependent on goals scored and clean sheets secured.
How to use these numbers
These numbers are based on a statistical model where each team has a unique rating for scoring and conceding goals. This rating is based on various factors from the previous 10-50 Premier League matches, and it is updated on regular basis.
Making use of these numbers can give you a huge advantage in many ways:
Gain an edge by identifying the favourites and most likely scorers, compare the clean sheet potential of lower-tier clubs such as West Brom, Bournemouth and Stoke or solidify your initial gut picks with statistical findings.
Gameweek 23 Top Candidates
Clean sheet: Man Utd 65%, Tottenham 49%, Arsenal 47%
Expected goals: Arsenal 2.88, Man Utd 2.31, Tottenham 2.02
Last round we named Chelsea as the “clean sheet banker of the week” and they did not disappoint. Antonio Conte’s mix of attacking flair in the first half, followed by a stubborn defensive display in the second half was expertly executed as his side defeated Hull City by two goals to nil.
This gameweek it’s Man United who host The Tigers. Mourinho’s men possess an immense 65% clean sheet probability, despite having failed to secure a shutout in their last three attempts at Old Trafford. Fatigue could also come into play, as United face Hull in the EFL Cup semi-final on Thursday and Wigan in the FA Cup on Saturday.
We advise that you don’t make your Fantasy Football transfers too early. It’s worth waiting to see how these games pan out, as the last thing you want is the headache of a transferring in an injured player.
Tottenham the next best candidates. Although they have been plagued by injury in recent weeks, with Vertonghen ruled out long-term and Alderweireld’s hamstring worries, they should still be able to limit a struggling Sunderland side to few chances. Spurs have kept three clean sheets in their last four matches in all competitions.
Taking injuries into account, Kevin Wimmer (4.6m) is an interesting option in FPL. He stepped in for Vertonghen in flawless fashion at this stage last season and is expected to do so once again. It’s not yet clear, but Pochettino might return to four at the back. If this is the case, FPL favourites Walker and Rose (also a doubt with injury) will play a slightly more withdrawn role.
Another encounter to keep note of is the clash between Middlesbrough and West Brom. Boro are new on the block, but their manager has already been labeled the ‘new Mourinho’ with his defensive approach, while West Brom have been clean sheet favourites ever since Tony Pulis arrived.
We recommended The Baggies last gameweek and the legendary pairing of Chris Brunt and Gareth McAuley paid back massively with their attacking returns. The former grabbed a goal, with a fantastically struck effort, while the latter chipped in with an assist and maximum bonus points.
Liverpool have dominated the attacking category this season. It’s rare that they don’t feature in our top three, but it’s understandable as Jurgen Klopp and his troops take on league leaders Chelsea. This obviously reduces their expected goals a fair amount.
Arsenal top the bunch in terms of goal-scoring potential, so Alexis Sanchez is once again the first choice captain pick for those who trust the numbers… and probably for many non-believers as well! They host a Watford side who have conceded two goals or more in six of the previous nine league matches.
Manchester United are rarely among the top scoring candidates, however, their weak opponent makes their frontline viable. We expect it to become a head-to-head battle between Ibrahimovic and Sanchez for the most popular FPL captain in this midweek gameweek, with both players expected to rack up big points.
One thing to remember is that Sanchez, being listed as a midfielder, banks an extra point for every goal and can also nick another point if his side don’t concede; Arsenal are ranked third in our clean sheet algorithm.
Tottenham come third with a favourable fixture against Sunderland. Louis Van Gaal’s ‘twitchy ass’ comment has never been more suitable to describe David Moyes, as he waits for Alli, Kane and Eriksen to run riot on his backline.
The past performance:
Here you can see how the top candidates of this algorithm have performed in the previous weeks. As you can see, the numbers can predict the outcomes pretty nicely!
Clean Sheet Accuracy (Top Candidates): 63%
Goals Scored Per Match (Top Candidates): 2.52