Who To Replace Sergio Aguero With On Fantasy Premier League
Sergio Aguero is likely to miss Manchester City’s next four domestic matches following his sending off in the latter stages of their 3-1 defeat against Chelsea.
Aguero is the most expensive player on Fantasy Premier League, therefore giving managers the option to replace him with anybody of their choice.
However, the decision isn’t as easy as you would think. There are several forwards that are currently in-form or showing signs that they could be entering a purple patch.
This article has statistically analysed the form and upcoming fixtures of all the popular candidates to help you decide who to replace Sergio Aguero with on Fantasy Premier League.
The players we have compared are Kane, Costa, Defoe, Ibrahimovic, Austin, Benteke, Iheanacho and Origi.
Which forwards are in the best form?
The statistics above are taken from each player’s last six Premier League matches, not gameweeks. The reason that Iheanacho and Origi rank low is because they each have multiple substitute appearances counting as matches.
Harry Kane ranks the highest in every single category and therefore has as notable lead over the other candidates. Two goals before his injury, followed by five after leaves him with an impressive 7 goals in six matches.
One thing the table doesn’t consider is season-long form, an area where Diego Costa would rank far ahead of any other forward in the league. However, from his last six matches there’s not much to separate himself and the likes of Jermain Defoe.
Defoe has managed just 1 point less than Diego Costa since gameweek 9 with an identical goal scoring record but one less assist. With less quality in the attack, the Sunderland striker has seen more bonus points float his way (9, to Costa’s 7).
Ibrahimovic and Benteke have also both managed four goals during this period but are roughly 10 points behind due to less assists. The pair have just one assist each this campaign but pull their rank higher with almost double the amount of big chances and shots on target.
Charlie Austin has been added to several watchlists but with just two goals in his last six it begs the question why. The Southampton striker only ranks marginally ahead of Iheanacho despite featuring for 107 minutes more over the last six matches.
Kelechi Iheanacho could be a good short term replacement, though he’s almost guaranteed to lose his spot when Aguero returns. During Aguero’s last absence in GW4 and 5, Iheanacho scored and assisted in both games, returning a total of 20 points.
As we previously mentioned, Divock Origi ranks poorly as four of his last six matches were substitute appearances that account for a total of 10 playing minutes. In gameweek 14 he featured for a full 90 minutes and made it two goals on the bounce.
Which forwards have the best run of fixtures?
We ranked all teams from 1 to 20 based on their home & away defensive form this season (the harder the fixture, the bigger the number). The statistics we used to determine form were clean sheets, goals conceded and big chances conceded. The rank column displays each player’s combined fixture difficulty for their next four matches.
It’s important to take this fixture difficulty table with a pinch of salt because teams such as Chelsea and Liverpool have comfortable scored past the majority of opponents this season. However, it does reflect a more accurate rating than the FDR (fixture difficulty rating) on the FPL site, which hasn’t been updated since the beginning of the season.
Diego Costa has the easiest set of fixtures over the next four weeks and although the WBA match is marked as red, you should note that Chelsea haven’t failed to score since September. Meanwhile, Harry Kane has two very favourable home matches sandwiched between away matches to Manchester United and Southampton.
Perhaps the most interesting comparison is Benteke and Defoe, who both face Manchester United, Chelsea and Watford between GW16-18. There is little to differentiate the two in both form and fixture, so the decision will largely come down to who you think will score higher in GW15 when they face Hull and Swansea respectively.
Manchester United have only managed to score more than a one goal in 28% of their matches this season, making them far from fixture proof in attack. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has an ok run from GW16 onwards but our table forecasts a potential struggle against Tottenham and Sunderland.
Charlie Austin’s FDR on Fantasy Premier League shows a sea of green fixtures. However, our ratings that actually consider defensive performances this season suggests otherwise. Meanwhile, Kelechi Iheanacho and Divock Origi have tough runs but play for teams who can comfortably put goals past any team, regardless of their season form.
Who to replace Sergio Aguero with on Fantasy Premier League?
Harry Kane (The Best Option): The Tottenham striker is in the best form and has very good fixtures on the horizon including Hull (H) and Burnley (H). He currently has low ownership, so if you sign up him soon you’ll catch his price rises.
Diego Costa (The Arguably As Good Option): Costa has tallied up more points than any other forward this season and boasts the best run of upcoming fixtures. Almost half of FPL managers own him, so you’re losing points by not having him.
Jermain Defoe & Christian Benteke (The Best Mid-Priced Options): The pair are both in form and have almost identical fixtures on the horizon. Who you select will be down to who your mini-league rivals own. Are you looking to close the gap or block those catching you? Pick accordingly.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic (The Questionable Option): Assuming you already own Harry Kane & Diego Costa, opting to add Zlatan Ibrahimovic would be a questionable move. Personally, I’d rather opt for a mid-priced option and use the spare cash to bring in Sanchez or Hazard.
Charlie Austin (Not Really An Option): Poor form, poor fixtures and high ownership. If you’re seriously considering Austin then why not opt for a differential and watch as your mini league rivals slowly lose their patience with him?
Kelechi Iheanacho & Divock Origi (The Budget Differential Options): Whilst the statistics of this article suggest the pair as bad options, we disagree. City and Liverpool will be scoring over the next few weeks (regardless of their opposition) and these budget differentials will getting minutes.
Thanks for reading! I’d love to hear your opinions in the comments.