Guy’s 5 Tips For Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 7
To say that last week brought a few unexpected results would be a massive understatement. And as sports fans, it’s those weeks that we live for isn’t it? We love that element of having every result not be predetermined. We love when sports go off script and show us that on any given day, every team has their chance.
But as fantasy players? Last week was rubbish. And from a fantasy lens, we’d be just fine if everything went according to the script we had in our mind before the round kicks off. It’s a very strange feeling be so completely of two minds when we sit down to watch a game, isn’t it? And it’s this side of the equation that makes writing tips articles kind of a losing racket. Let’s suppose all of my tips were somehow eerily on the level of premonition – it would be great for our fantasy teams, but it sure would make the games less interesting. And on the flip side, if my tips don’t work out, then I’m just another hack spouting empty rhetoric about a game I seemingly know nothing about – at least that’s how I felt after last week.
I mean honestly, the only thing I feel like I got right last round was saying that Aguero was worth taking a point hit to bring into your team. But aside from that, Stoke played to a 1-1 draw and didn’t give up big points to the opposing offense. Everton got shutout 1-0 against some Championship side that played way above their station. Capoue blanked. Oh yeah, KDB ends up getting hurt and is listed as out for a month.
But you know that old saying, “one out of five ain’t bad”. That’s not a saying, and really, my tips weren’t quite that dire. But it still felt like a losing effort for me. Time to do better this week.
Guy’s 5 Fantasy Premier League Tips For Gameweek 7:
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#1) (Heung Min) Son of a…. Part II
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Maybe my best tip came early on in this series of articles when I said to keep an eye on this kid. Man alive, Son is ripping apart any competition he comes across. Son is playing so well, even Jamie Vardy would have a hard time finding something bad to say about him…..(admit it, that’s a good joke).
Not only has Son scored a pair of braces and given an assist in just a few weeks of work in the Premier League, but he was also Tottenham’s only scorer in their 1-0 win over CSKA Moscow midweek in Champion’s League play. Honestly, it’s getting more difficult finding excuses not to own him than it is to find a reason to bring him in.
First consider his price: he’s available for just 7.5m. That’s nothing in FPL terms for a midfielder with his current level of output. Secondly, you have to look at the fact that he’s only owned by 3.4% of the league. That means every time he scores, chances are you’ll be one of the few people you know getting fantasy points from that goal. Son’s currently on 37 points from 3 games; leaving Aguero aside (due to suspension), that means that Son has scored more fantasy points than Ibrahimovic, Lukaku, Costa…all of them. It’s almost scary to think what his output could’ve been had he played the first three weeks of the year. I think it’s still too early to call him a ‘must have’ – but with Kane not taking the pitch for the near future, it’s real tough to leave him off your roster due to the potential he brings.
#2) Are West Ham fundamentally broken?
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West Ham are currently on a 4-game losing streak (longest active streak in the league). They’re not in last place, but they’re trying their hardest to get there it seems. The Hammers have given up 14 goals over the stretch of this losing streak and have only put forth 5 of their own. But those 5 goals seemed to be enough for us to trust their offense with a roster spot. But that trust suffered a major hit this last week when West Ham were just completely blanked in a home fixture against Southampton.
Nobody can deny that Michail Antonio and Dimitri Payet are quality players – nor can anybody deny that they’ve already turned in superb fantasy returns for their respective price points. But when they blank, and when the team looks so bad like it did this last round…how long do you continue to let them ride?
Payet had 9 BPS and Antonio had 8 BPS this last round. That level of production just shows how little they were involved. And it’s not acceptable. I’m sure West Ham fans are just beside themselves right now with grief over how this season has started – but fantasy fans of West Ham are just about at their tipping point too.
So here’s my advice, give the offense one more week to try to bounce back. This week West Ham get another home fixture against Middlesbrough – and if that doesn’t help cure their ills, then it’s time to start dropping them until there’s a management change or until the team decides they’re collectively done flirting with relegation.
#3) Is it possible to better predict the Liverpool and Arsenal goalscorers?
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In a word: no.
Sorry, but I think it must be said that you shouldn’t trust anybody who thinks they know ahead of time which players from these teams are a ‘guaranteed’ hit on any given weekend. Is Alexis maybe more likely to score than Walcott? Sure. Does that mean that Arsenal won’t be awarded a pair of penalties for Cazorla to take…with Bellerin nodding in a header…while everybody else on the team just has to wait their turn? Anything is possible. Same goes for Liverpool. Coutinho and Firmino ‘should’ be the most likely candidates to score based on talent (my opinion), but then Milner goes ahead and gets a brace last week. And he’s owned by a whopping 2.3% of all players. Go figure.
Both of these teams are showing what offensive juggernauts they can be. In fact, only Man City have scored more goals than these two teams. But with Man City, it’s always 100% clear who the focus of the attack belongs to. It’s not quite so cut and dry with these squads. Both Arsenal and Liverpool have 7 different goalscorers on the year – and neither club has a goal from a player listed as a forward in the game. So to further complicate matters, you have to assume that eventually those forwards are probably also going to run into a goal as well.
Based on how many goals these two sides are currently getting, it’s not a bad idea to have coverage from these two teams – that much is obvious. But you’re going to have to settle into the fact that playing mids (or forwards) from these clubs is a bit like playing roulette. You’re not going to win every time, but when you do, it will be worth your while.
The wrong approach is to rage-sell players that don’t hit every round. Already this round Firmino has been transferred out nearly 25K time and Mane has been shipped out nearly 12K times. And of course, because they recently scored, Lallana has been brought in nearly 120K times with Coutinho coming in nearly 115K times. So what happens next time Firmino gets a brace? And what happens when Mane gets an easy goal and assist? Will these new Lallana owners be dumping him to bring in last week’s point getters?
It’s a sick carousel. Just pick the one you like the most for the next 4-5 weeks and let it ride.
#4) Who do Stoke play this week?
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Even though Stoke didn’t completely collapse last week and give up the big points to the opposition, they’re still horrible. And even though Sunderland and West Ham are trying to be the real worst team in the league, Stoke still have the league’s worst goal differential at -11…and they’re still tied for fewest goals forward (4, alongside Bournemouth). So yeah, until they drastically turn things around, they’re still going to get picked on in this space – because picking on them and against them is just good sense.
And this week is the perfect week to pick against them as they travel to Man U. So if you’re on the fence as to which transfer to make, picking up Man U coverage, while everybody else is fretting over which Liverpool mid will pay off, may be the smarter choice – at least in the short term in this spot.
Man U have won twice and lost once at home this year – and the loss was against Man City, so it’s forgivable. But in those three games, Man U have a home goal differential of +4, and their two wins combined amounted to 6 goals on their part. Stoke, on the other hand, have lost twice and drawn once on the road for a goal differential of -4. So it’s pretty clear that if this fits to script, it wouldn’t be hugely surprising to see Man U win by at least 2 or 3.
This matchup immediately makes Ibra a good captain choice if you have him, but it also makes players like Rashford look more inviting to pick up.
#5) Champions League good for FPL fantasy?
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Ok. I’m going deep into the weeds on this one, so you’ll just have to bear with me here. But as a fantasy player, we look for any kind of correlations in numbers to give us that edge right? So here’s a stat for you that I found that might not convince you to change your lineup – but it will certainly make you feel better about your CL players coming into this weekend.
After the first round of group play in Champions league a couple of weeks back, Tottenham, Leicester, Arsenal and Man City all won the Premier League games later that weekend. The combined scores of those games? 12-1.
Will this week be any different? Probably. But this group of Champions League teams don’t seem to be slowing down in the slightest after midweek play – and it looks like being part of the CL tournament may have motivated them into superior form for the games after.
Is this stat a real thing? Yes it is. Does it mean anything? Well, you remember that scene in Hook where Peter couldn’t see the feast laid out before him before he believed it was there? Yeah…just believe.
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