Gameweek 6 Clean Sheet Analysis For Fantasy Premier League

Gameweek 6 Clean Sheet Analysis For Fantasy Premier League

Which clubs have the best chance of keeping a clean sheet in Gameweek 6? NaturalFootyFan has analysed recent defensive form, fixture difficulty and the bookies odds in an attempt to answer this question.

During Gameweek 5, there was four clean sheets across the board as Spurs eased to a single-goal victory against Sunderland, Man City brushed aside Bournemouth at the Etihad, Southampton fought for the clean sheet and all three points versus Swansea and Leicester secured a shutout in a one-sided affair at the King Power.

Our defensive player tips included the likes of Scott Dann, Kyle Walker, Hugo Lloris, Claudio Bravo and Toby Alderweireld, all of which recorded six points or more in Gameweek 5.

How is the data calculated?

Every team has been rated on a scale of 1 to 20 (1: best in the league, 20: worst in the league) based on form, fixture and odds. We’ve then totalled these findings and colour coded them so you can clearly visualise which clubs have the best clean sheet potential in Gameweek 6.

All statistics have been taken from the last four gameweeks, as we feel this provides a fair comparison with the likelihood of each club having two home and two away fixtures.

Gameweek 6 Clean Sheet Analysis: Form Vs. Fixture Vs. Odds:screen-shot-2016-09-22-at-21-08-31Observations from the table:

Hull to upset the bookies favourites?

Although the bookies rank the Merseyside club as their front-runners to keep a clean sheet in gameweek 6, when you take oppositions from into consideration things might play out differently.

Yes, Liverpool are at their free-scoring best right now, but that doesn’t always equate to returns at the other end of the pitch. They have leaked goals, even when dominating matches (4-1 vs. Leicester in Gameweek 4 comes to mind) and are one of only five sides yet to secure a clean sheet this season.

Hull, on the other hand, have already found the net twice against the 2015/16 Champions Leicester and away to Swansea, while also notching against a consistent top four finisher Arsenal and a Burnley side built upon a strong defensive line.

So are the bookmakers predictions misleading? The simple answer is no, but it’s not as simple as ‘look, Liverpool are playing Hull City – that’s an easy clean sheet’. Hull are a dangerous side under the hood.

They have free-kick specialist Robert Snodgrass in their ranks, so a goal against the run of play from a dead-ball situation is definitely plausible, while Mbokani looked sharp in his 15 minute cameo versus Arsenal, winning a penalty in his first involvement.

It’s a shame Alberto Moreno has been dropped from the side, as that would present a chance to take advantage of the bookies confidence in Liverpool, but come to think of it, they’d probably be ranked outside the top five if the Spaniard was still in the starting XI!

In summary, Liverpool are huge favourites with Nathaniel Clyne (5.5m) proving popular in FPL with a 10.9% ownership and the fairly priced Dejan Lovren (4.9m) offering a cheaper route into Klopp’s defence. However, we wouldn’t be surprised if their visitors nicked a goal against the odds.


Top 3 to keep it clean on the road?

Just like the Premier League table, Everton, Man City and Tottenham are cruising at the top of our defensive table. They have conceded nine goals between them all season, with Spurs letting in just a single goal in their last four gameweeks.

Everton

Since Ronald Koeman’s arrival, Everton’s defence has gone from unpredictable, unorganised and soft-bellied to predictable, organised and hard-cased. This transformation is the reason why The Toffees are now serious challengers for Champions League qualification at the least.

They take on a Bournemouth side who are struggling to find the net at the moment – scoring twice and creating just two big chances in the last four gameweeks. Everton have conceded an average of one big chance per game over this period, so should be able to keep their opposition at arms length.

Leighton Baines (5.6m), Seamus Coleman (5.4m) and Ashley Williams (5m) are the go-to defenders in FPL. Baines is the most popular with his range of attacking returns bolstered by penalty taking duties (if he still takes them…) and some free-kick responsibilities.

Similar to his fellow full-back, Coleman will spend the majority of this match in the oppositions half, while Williams suits the bonus-points scoring system with his combative style in the heart of defence.

Man City

Pep Guardiola is really starting to make City the dominant force in Manchester. They’ve opened up a five-point gap at the top of the Premier League and rank 4th, 5th and 2nd in terms of form, fixture and odds in our table.

John Stones (5m) is the only addition to the City backline this season, but Vincent Kompany (5.9m) is on the verge of making a return and Guardiola has done a good job of converting Aleksandar Kolarov (5.9m) into a makeshift centre-back.

Away to Swansea, Man City are expected to dominate in all areas, with Gylfi Sigurdsson providing the main threat. The Icelandic International scored against Man City on Wednesday in the cup, but if they manage to keep him on a tight leash then the clean sheet is their’s for the taking.

The Swans have won just one of their last 12 league meetings with Manchester City (D2 L9) and are still treading water in 15th position. With a disappointing return of just four goals this season, they shouldn’t present City with too many problems.

Tottenham

Carrying on from last season, Spurs are once again one of the best sides to trust for defensive returns. They have conceded a solitary goal over the last four gameweeks and will be confident of continuing this impressive run versus newly promoted Middlesbrough.

Tottenham have won 22 of their last 24 Premier League games against newly promoted sides, although on the contrary, Middlesbrough have scored more Premier League goals against Tottenham than they have against any other side.

This is an interesting fact, but that’s all it is. Middlesbrough have never been a free-scoring side, and with Alvaro Negredo missing out through injury, their chances of scoring are further hindered.

Kyle Walker (5.8m) and Toby Alderweireld (6.5m) have been exceptional at the back, with the former contributing with two assists and six bonus-points in FPL. His price has already risen by 0.3m, so if you’re contemplating transferring him in, then don’t hang around.

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1 Comment
  1. I used to like it when you showed the actual odds and implied percentages. Are you still planning on doing these? Thanks for all your good work.

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