Watford’s Resurgence

Nigel Pearson has brought a steel to Watford and has brought a few assets right into frame for our FPL teams. With a Double Gameweek on the horizon and our teams loading up on expensive Liverpool assets we could find some good value in assets from the Vicarage Road club.

Fixtures

Most interestingly we now see the fixture swing benefit Watford with the next 4 fixtures providing ample room for goals and surprises.
Bournemouth (a) / Tottenham (H) / Aston Villa (a) / Everton (H)

Bournemouth – Have recently started to leak goals and with injuries mounting up in their defence they have conceded 6 goals in 2 games and could face some trouble over the next few weeks.

Tottenham – One of the worst defences this season in the Premier League this season and with injuries to Ndombele and Sissoko taking more strength out of their midfield they could lack the shielding needed to combat in the league and turn around their form.

Aston Villa – A similar story of a team with Injuries mounting up for key players, crucial time for the midland club.

Everton – Starting to turn things around Ancelotti but a moral draining loss to a Liverpool youth side could effect them over the coming weeks.

The xG for these games is not great, believe this to be based on the data from Watford’s form earlier in the season although it is worth noting that the game against Tottenham is mooted as a high scoring game (relatively!).

bou 0.76
TOT 1.03
avl 1.03
EVE 0.90

Meanwhile their clean sheet prospectives aren’t projected to be much better either, but with cheap defenders playing in their team it could be a good option to bulk out a wildcard squad.

bou 41 %
TOT 22 %
avl 29 %
EVE 33 %

Players

Let’s start with Gerard Deulofeu (6.1m), his heat map under Nigel Pearson see’s him playing off the striker but on the wing, with Troy Deeney (6.2m) dropping deep to win the ball it enables Deulofeu and Sarr (6.1m) to overlap and find space in front of goal, as we say for Deulofeu’s opening goal in the last gameweek. With his accreditation as a forward in the game despite dropping a bit further back now it could see Sarr being the better option as being a midfielder gives him access to increased point potential in the game. Troy Deeney has been leading the line for Watford under the new manager, and the captain and penalty taker has rewarded this faith with 3 goals in 3 games.

In terms of stats since Gameweek 16 they each have their own strongpoints but Sarr does look the best option. With 4 big chances for Deeney and Sarr and 3 for Deulofeu you would start to maybe think that Deulofeu would be out the running but with 13 chances created for teammates he doubles that of Sarr and Deeney at 7 a piece. Deulofeu also boasts a much better baseline bonus, due in part to his dribbling and involvement in the build up, this could see him hit higher BPS once he returns. Deeney and Deulofeu both took 12 shots on goal but Sarr excels with 16 in the same period. From this data we can see that it is really penalties that is keeping Deeney in consideration, other than that it is a decision based on which position slot you have available in your team to choose between Deulofeu and Sarr.

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178th Best manager of all time in FPL 💪 | Hall of Fame 🏆 | Top 30k for last 6 Years | Degree in Religion and Philosophy.

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