Roberto – a good punt at 4.4m?
With Adrian’s shift in net for Liverpool coming to an inevitable close we are left with a small number of viable low budget goalkeepers in the game. Nick Pope at Burnley and Matt Ryan at Brighton take the first spots, but Roberto could be worth a shout over the next 5 gameweeks especially.
West Ham, over the next 6 Gameweeks have the 4th best predicted xGA in the league, ahead of the likes of Tottenham, Leicester, Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal – and only behind City, Liverpool and Everton. Of the next 6 the xGA predicts West Ham to keep around 2.5 clean sheets, yes the 0.5 is annoying. But statistically we are looking at 2-3 clean sheets and as is the West Ham way, copious save points (although Fabianski has been a bit of a God at these wherever he has been), it is notable that in the 56 minutes played this season from Roberto he already racked up an extra point for saves.
When we look at the stats we perhaps see signs of a change at West Ham. They have only given up 2 big mistakes leading to chances, this is below the amount given up by Man City, Tottenham and Liverpool. They have 3 clean sheets, on par with Man City and Palace in joint 1st position. They sit mid table for chances conceded in the left, right and center of goal. But, with all these good stats, they have one of the worst minutes per xGA conceded at 1xGA per 50 mins of play (3rd worse in the league, for example, Leicester are at 130 mins), West Ham have also given up the most big chances in the league at 23, tied with Watford (who have the anomaly of THAT City game in their stats).
What we can gleam from these statistics is that West Ham are good fodder for save points and goalkeeper actions leading to bonus points. They also have an acumen for scraping clean sheets. With this in mind it is good to look at their next fixtures.
Crystal Palace – Clean Sheet probability – 29%
Everton – CSP – 25%
Sheffield United – CSP – 52%
Newcastle – CSP – 35%
Burnley – CSP – 27%
We would ideally like to see 2 clean sheets in this mix, with Crystal Palace and Sheffield United our targets and Newcastle our ‘banker’.
International Break Notes
As we come up to the 2nd of 3 autumn international breaks FPL is gearing up with its usual amount of annoyance, trolling and just enough reward to keep us coming back. What is important to note is the lack of International Football in the break for Mahrez, Salah and Aguero amongst others. With niggling injuries to the likes of Kevin de Bruyne and Aaron Wan-Bissaka, popular FPL assets are looking to miss out on the two weeks of travel and competitive football during the break, leaving, hopefully, them fit for your squads come GW9.
With Tammy Abraham and Tomori called up to the England squad and a probable debut for Maddison, the three lions will be a good place to scout some form and hopefully avoid injury for more popular FPL assets.
Gameweek 8 Hitters
Aubameyang – constantly returning and playing a team with an awful defensive record over the past 3 seasons. Additionally the Gabonese striker has been rested in Arsenal’s Europa League match vs Standard Leige this mid-week.
Harry Maguire – despite Man Utd’s stuttering start, they have the second best xGA in the league, with an xGA expected ever 120 mins. Man Utd, play Newcastle in what is set to be a 0-0 non-thriller.