FPL Heisenberg’s Captain Series – Gameweek 4
Welcome to the latest article in a new series for the 2020/21 Fantasy Premier League season from @FPL_Heisenberg for FPL Bet. In this weekly series, Heisenberg will be looking into the best captaincy options, as well as ‘outside of the box’ captaincy choices for each Gameweek. Heisenberg has a proven track record in FPL, having finished inside the top 32k in each of the last 6 seasons, including a best finish of 836th. Let’s cook!
Gameweek 4 Captains:
Raul Jimenez (Fixture: Fulham, home)
Jimenez had a fantastic Gameweek 3 with an own goal and no attacking returns, which is why I think he’s the perfect captain for Gameweek 4. 😂
Jokes aside, with a home fixture against a poor Fulham side in Gameweek 4, I fully expect the Mexican to live up to his nickname in Fantasy Football circles of “The Postman”, because he always delivers. In his first two seasons in the Premier League, Raul has 47 goal contributions (goals + assists). With two goals to his name already this season, don’t be surprised to see him double his season tally with a brace in Gameweek 4.
It’ll be interesting to see how he – and Wolves collectively – perform in Gameweek 4 following their defeat to West Ham. Fulham have been poor defensively conceding 18 shots in targets over the course of the first three Gameweeks and I believe this will be a game in which the Mexican international will score well in.
Mohamed Salah (Fixture: Aston Villa, Away)
Salah is again a top-pick for captaincy in Gameweek 4, despite facing a reasonably tough away fixture against a rejuvenated Aston Villa who are yet to concede a goal this season. Having said that, Villa have been reasonably fortunate not to concede in their opening 2 Premier League fixtures this season after giving away a penalty in Gameweek 2 and VAR bailing them out in Gameweek 3.
The Egyptian King started the season well too, with three goals and an assist already, and has taken 13 shots in the box so far this season, the highest in the Premier League this season. According to Fantasy Football Hub’s expected goals (xG) metric, he has an xG of 2.32. I should note this was helped considerably by the two penalties in Gameweek 1, but, with penalties becoming more frequent this season, there’s even more reason to target penalty takers for your captaincy decision.
Mane stole the show for Liverpool in Gameweek 2 with 2 goals and topped that up with another goal in Gameweek 3, however, for me Salah is still the best pick. He is on pens and I believe he will score more FPL points over the course of the season than Mane. Salah has been more creative than Mane so far this season with 11 key passes to Mane’s 6, ranking him higher in the expected assists metric. Salah has also taken more shots than Mane this season, 17 to Mane’s 13, with more inside the box, 13 to 9.
Kevin de Bruyne (Fixture: Leeds, Away)
I move onto another penalty taker now, last season’s top points scorer returned to Premier League action with a bang against Wolves at The Molineux in Gameweek 2, but was relatively quiet at home to Leicester in Gameweek 3. Kevin de Bruyne registered 13 goals and 23 assists, amassing 251 FPL points last season. He picked up where he left off with 1 goal, 1 assist and all 3 bonus points in Gameweek 2 but followed that up with a blank in Gameweek 2. De Bruyne can score well against any team in the Premier League, and this is a perfect fixture for Man City to bounce back, against a Leeds side who have conceded 8 big chances this season, the second worst record in the league ahead of West Brom.
The exciting thing about De Bruyne this season is the advanced position he could be deployed in more often. He has been used in the number 10 role, with Rodri and Fernandinho providing cover for the back 4, giving De Bruyne licence to drive forward into the box like he did to great effect in Gameweek 2.
‘Outside of the Box’ captains:
Danny Ings (Fixture: West Brom, Home)
Although the Southampton talisman is currently selected by around 20% of FPL players at the time of writing, he will still be a huge captain differential, with your mini-league rivals likely to captain one of the premium assets like Salah, De Bruyne, Fernandes etc.
Saints number 9 will be full of confidence following 3 goals in his last 2 games a fantastic display at Old Trafford. If he can keep that attacking momentum going, then Ings could score again at home to West Brom, especially given the fact he is penalty taker for the Saints.
West Brom’s defensive statistics are the worse so far this Premier League campaign, conceding the most goals so far, topping the highest expected goals conceded metric too. Therefore, it could be argued that Ings is not an outside of the box choice at all and he should be one you are seriously considering for the armband.
Harvey Barnes (Fixture: West Ham, Home)
One of my differential captain picks in Gameweek 4 is the £7.0m Leicester midfielder Harvey Barnes. Currently sitting at less than 6% ownership at the time of writing – he is a huge differential, especially if you captain him! I think it’s fairly safe to say that of those who own him, very few of them will be throwing the armband on him.
If he can pick up where he left off from in Gameweek 2 scoring 1 and assisting 1, then Barnes could be in for another productive FPL week. On paper, a decent fixture for Leicester against West Ham, however, The Hammers have looked good defensively this season, shutting out Wolves in Gameweek 3 to boot. Barnes has the underlying stats to back it up, as mentioned earlier, Barnes has taken 7 shots on target so far this season, the joint highest alongside Harry Kane and Calvert-Lewin.
Thanks for reading the latest article in this captaincy series from FPL Heisenberg, be sure to follow @FPLBet and @FPL_Heisenberg on Twitter so that you don’t miss the weekly article. Agree or disagree with these captaincy picks? Let us know in the comments below and on Twitter!