Braveheart’s Forward Look – GW30 – back to normality


This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Fanteam, other daily fantasy football or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week’s Premier League fixtures.

All player data in this article is from the last six gameweeks. All data is correct as of 31 March 2021.

The forward look – GW30:

ChelseavWest Brom
83%Win %7%
62%Clean sheet %10%
74%To score 2+ %13%
Werner (6)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Diagne (6)
Alonso (3)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Pereira (3)
Azpilicueta (35.3)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Pereira (30.5)
2.17Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.67
0.33Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.5
LeedsvSheffield United
67%Win %16%
46%Clean sheet %15%
62%To score 2+ %23%
Bamford (4)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
McGoldrick (4)
Raphinha (5)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Norwood (2)
Raphinha (40.7)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Ramsdale (29.2)
1.57Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.5
1.71Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)4.17
LeicestervMan City
16%Win %65%
15%Clean sheet %44%
25%To score 2+ %62%
Iheanacho (7)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Jesus (5)
Vardy (4)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Cancelo (3)
Vardy (34.9)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Ederson (41.7)
3.0Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.88
1.67Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.25
31%Win %47%
22%Clean sheet %29%
40%To score 2+ %53%
Lacazette (4)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Salah (4)
Smith Rowe (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Alexander-Arnold (3)
Aubameyang (26.4)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Salah (32.8)
2.0Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.0
1.67Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)2.33
48%Win %28%
38%Clean sheet %27%
44%To score 2+ %31%
Adams (4)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Vydra (4)
Armstrong (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Lowton (4)
Ward-Prowse (35.6)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Lowton (36.8)
1.86Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.86
2.14Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)2.14
17%Win %64%
17%Clean sheet %44%
25%To score 2+ %58%
Joelinton (1)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Kane (5)
Murphy (3)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Son (6)
Lascelles (26.3)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Kane (37.8)
0.83Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.71
2.17Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.43
Aston VillavFulham
44%Win %31%
37%Clean sheet %27%
42%To score 2+ %31%
Traore (3)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Maja (6)
Watkins (3)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Cavaleiro (2)
Konsa (34.5)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Andersen (42.0)
1.29Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.38
1.71Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.62
Man UnitedvBrighton
62%Win %18%
44%Clean sheet %18%
58%To score 2+ %23%
Fernandes (3)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Welbeck (3)
Fernandes (1)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Maupay (2)
Fernandes (35.4)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Veltman (40.5)
1.17Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.17
1.0Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)0.67
EvertonvCrystal Palace
57%Win %20%
48%Clean sheet %23%
48%To score 2+ %22%
Richarlison (5)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Benteke (2)
Sigurdsson (3)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Milivojevic (2)
Richarlison (32.3)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Guaita (27.4)
1.71Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)0.67
2.29Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.67
WolvesvWest Ham
33%Win %40%
31%Clean sheet %37%
33%To score 2+ %37%
Coady (3)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Antonio (6)
Neto (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Cresswell (3)
Coady (31.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Lingard (32.6)
1.33Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.5
2.67Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.33

Braveheart’s GW29 review:

It seems like a long while ago that we were thinking about the “big blank” in Gameweek 29. It was a surprisingly high scoring gameweek, considering the lack of fixtures. The players you expected to score did so – Lingard, Raphinha, Bamford, Antonio, Kane and the Brighton defence. The biggest shock, and one which I fell foul to, was the omission of Gareth Bale. In the end my team secured 54 points for a green arrow back into the top 100k (but only just at 100k). My defence performed poorly (as I ended up not brining in a Brighton defender in preference to brining in Bale) but Lingard, Raphinha, Soucek, Bamford and Captain Kane managed to secure my green arrow.

Braveheart’s GW30 reveal:

I go into this gameweek with 1 free transfer and 4.1m in the bank. I like the look of my team going into this week but as I will be wildcarding in the not-too-distant-future, I’m looking at some short-term moves to improve my ascent up the rankings as we enter the end game of the season. Chelsea are the biggest favourites to win this week, have the strongest clean sheet potential and highest potential to score two or more goals. I think it is a no-brainer that I should be looking to bring in some Chelsea player. All players are subject to Tuchel-roulette, but it seems that Mendy, Azpilecuta and Mount are the securest (as secure as they can be) in minutes. All this comes with the caveat that Chelsea play away to Porto in the Champions League four days later so managed minutes and rotation are likely. At the time of writing, I think I’m likely to bring in Mendy for McCarthy using my one free transfer.

For captaincy, I’ve put the armband on Kane. Tottenham are strong favourites to win and 58% probability of scoring two or more goals. If they do score a couple or more, it is highly likely that ‘Arry will be involved in the action.

If I make the transfers I anticipate, my teamheading into GW30 is likely as follows:

  • Mendy v West Brom (h)
  • Cancelo v Leicester (a)
  • Dallas v Sheffield (h)
  • Targett v Fulham (h)
  • Fernandes v Brighton (h)
  • Bale v Newcastle (a)
  • Raphinha v Sheffield (h)
  • Lingard v Wolves (a)
  • Kane v Newcastle (a) (captain)
  • Bamford v Sheffield (h)
  • Watkins v Fulham (h)
  • My likely bench order:
  • Pope v Southampton (a)
  • Dias v Leicester (a)
  • Soucek v Wolves (a)
  • Coufal v Wolves (a)

The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW30. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!

FPL obsessive | Scottish | Top 200 of all-time.

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