Braveheart’s Forward Look – GW29 – the BIG blank gameweek

Introduction

This season FPLbet will have a weekly series of forward look articles designed to try and improve your points and profits. Whether you are an avid FPL player or whether you like to dabble in Footstock, other daily fantasy football or traditional betting, this article should be your first port of call before picking your teams or placing any bets for the week’s Premier League fixtures.

All player data in this article is from the last six gameweeks. All data is correct as of 16 March 2021.

The forward look – GW29:

FulhamvLeeds
41%Win %36%
31%Clean sheet %27%
42%To score 2+ %38%
Maja (5)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Bamford (5)
Lookman (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Raphinha (6)
Adarabioyo (42.0)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Raphinha (41.4)
1.38Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.0
1.62Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.43
BrightonvNewcastle
62%Win %17%
50%Clean sheet %20%
53%To score 2+ %20%
Welbeck (5)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Willock (2)
Maupay (2)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Murphy (3)
Veltman (38.2)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Willock (24.6)
2.0Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.0 (second fewest)
1.0 (second fewest)Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)2.33
West HamvArsenal
35%Win %41%
27%Clean sheet %31%
38%To score 2+ %44%
Antonio (4)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Aubameyang (4)
Cresswell (4)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Smith Rowe (2)
Lingard (31.4)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Aubameyang (25.1)
2.17Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)1.83
1.5Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.33
Aston VillavTottenham
33%Win %43%
23%Clean sheet %31%
40%To score 2+ %48%
Traore (4)Most big chances   
(last 6 GWs)
Kane (6)
Watkins (3)Most big chances created  (last 6 GWs)Son (6)
Martinez (36.6)xFPL   (xG, xA and xCS combined)Kane (39.0)
1.43Team big chances pg (last 6 GWs)2.0
1.43Big chances conceded pg (last 6 GWs)1.57

Braveheart’s GW28 review:

Another small red arrow down to 125k. That’s three weeks in a row now, so I’m hoping that my preparation for BGW29 will pay dividends. I ended up with 45 points with blanks from my whole team except Cancelo (12), Dias (6), Targett (4) and Watkins (5). It could have been much better if Watkins had been awarded the Villa goal on Friday night (and Targett retained his clean sheet) but oh well…. we go again…

Braveheart’s GW29 reveal:

My tip for all managers before making any transfers this week is to count how many players you have who have a fixture this week (only Fulham, Leeds, Brighton, Newcastle, West Ham, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Tottenham have a fixture). I‘m sitting on eight players for GW29 at the moment:

  • zero goalkeepers,
  • three defenders – Dallas, Targett and Coufal,
  • two midfielders – Raphinha and Soucek,
  • three forwards – Kane, Bamford and Watkins.

I go into this gameweek with 2 free transfer and 1.6m in the bank. The strongest favourite this week is Brighton at home to Newcastle. They are returning from an impressive 2-1 win against  Southampton, and are projected to have the highest probability to earn a clean sheet and score two or more goals. Going into this week I had planned on bringing in Son and/or Bale as well as a goalkeeper. The injury to Bamford may lead me to change my plan. At the time of writing I do not know whether Bamford will be fit. If he isn’t fit, then I will likely bring Antonio in for the Leeds tailsman. With my second free transfer, I think I would bring in Bale for Salah. I’d have liked to bring in Lingard, but the Antonio move would block me from doing so. 

I may also take a four point hit to bring in a 10th player, most likely from the Brighton defence given their favourable fixture. I’d be looking at Sanchez or Veltman. Most likely the goalkeeper as I can get rid of McCarthy (who has now lost his space to Forster) as opposed to one of my Man City defenders.

For captaincy, I’ve put the armband on Kane. Tottenham have a 48% probability of scoring two or more goals and, if they score, it is highly likely that Kane will be involved. He is also on penalties. Antonio or Bamford (whichever one is in my team depending on Bamford’s fitness) will be my vice captain.

My ten-man squad heading into GW29 is likely as follows:

  • Sanchez v Newcastle (h)
  • Dallas v Fulham (a)
  • Targett v Tottenham (h)
  • Coufal v Arsenal (h)
  • Bale v Aston Villa (a)
  • Raphinha v Fulham (a)
  • Soucek v Arsenal (h)
  • Kane v Aston Villa (a) (captain)
  • Antonio v Arsenal (or Bamford v Fulham (a) stays if he is fit, in which case I’d bring in Lingard v Arsenal (h))
  • Watkins v Tottenham (h)
  • My likely bench order:
  • Pope
  • Dias
  • Cancelo
  • Fernandes
  • Gundogan

The team is not set in stone until the deadline so please follow me at @FPLBraveheart on Twitter for any updates. All the best and I hope everyone reading gets green arrows in GW29. But, most importantly, stay safe out there (or, more accurately, at home)!

FPL obsessive | Scottish | Top 200 of all-time.

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